Hurricane Earl!... Danielle Dancing... Is Fiona Forming in the MDR? So Far We Have Been Lucky Re: Lack of Landfalling Hurricanes. How long Will That Continue. Watch GOM for Wild Card Close In Problem...

 

80 MPH Winds!

Earl Upgraded to Hurricane Status from Recon reports!

Short blog today.

It's still a "waiting day" 

Waiting on Earl to be a Hurricane.

Waiting on waves vs models.

Earl is still a Tropical Storm forecast by the NHC to soon become a Hurricane, forecast to stay away from the East Coast and flirt with Bermuda.  Behind Earl are two waves being monitored for possible tropical development.  The low wave coming off Africa any day now (waiting) is forecast by long range models to do something possibly exciting. My problem is that the same models have promised forecasts that never verified or got close, so I'm taking them with lots of tropical sea salt!

This the model for Sept 16th!

Very long range.

I'm more curious on this one below.

And by Thursday we can verify it or not.

The EURO shows "something" in the GOM.

It tries to form.

It moves inland.

It pumps up rain ...

...in areas that do not need it.

So for now I'm watching at the short term part of the models vs the long term as this year has just been honestly weird and the Hurricane Season no one can figure out. What we do know is that the rain forecast is for intense rain across the Southeast.  Whatever causes it (frontal boundary stalled, tropical home grown trouble) it's in an area that has had much rain and flooding of late and really doesn't need that kind of rain. Understand we always need rain, but not all at once nonstop. 

I'll update Wednesday when we should have Hurricane Earl (or the models are really off) and we shall see what is what with the new emerging wave off of Africa. 

Yes, we are in Peak of the Season but that doesn't mean we will have a parade of landfalling hurricanes. And, yes moisture from the EPAC storm Kay will move up towards Southern California. This happens sometimes, often in El Nino Seasons and again this La Nina oddly quacks like an El Nino which is even more confusing. 

Stay tuned..........something will happen at some point but for now, we have been very lucky in the USA and let's hope we stay lucky. Time will tell.

Besos BobbiStorm

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