Updated ... TS Danny - Charleston in Cross Hairs. Forecast to Be Danny. TS Warnings Posted! Whole Region Subject to Strong Weather Before Center Crosses Land. It's Complicated. 95L Potential Trouble IF Is Survives... Can Thrive Close In.

3:30 PM

Also NHC upped 95L to orange 40%

New track a bit to the South.

Well formation zone....

...but all based on models.

Puts Haiti in play, then Cuba...

Then........ ???

Hmnnn...  well still long range time wise.

Stay tuned.

Again recon will be collecting data... 

* * * 

Weather to the left. Center to the Right.

Winds will strengthen as it wraps up more.

Time will tell but stay prepared everywhere.

This is the Tropical Storm Warnings Map...

Again strong weather will be outside this zone.

 A system like this is complicated because you MUST track the WEATHER associated with it and far removed from the "center" that the NHC is tracking and forecasting landfall. There are weather concerns with Tropical Depressions and Tropical Storms not limited to the cone and often far from the center.

The Problem with TD4.

Why is it so complicated?

Dark reds are far from the "center" 

traveling further South than the cone.

Remember this was an Upper Level Low.

You can see that structure in the Mimic 

Note the weather lacks a smooth trajectory moving towards Charleston that is getting all the hype, yet JAX in Florida to the South will get rain and a humid moisture sure will move towards all the Carolina Beaches. Kiawah, Georgetown all the way up to Myrtle Beach will see weather and down towards Jax in Florida. Then the moisture moves inland ... a cold front is approaching (I hope)

This whole area known as the Georgia Bight....

...is South of the Cone but in for weather.

Moisture in NE Florida and Georgia.

Moisture along South and North Carolina.

Messy beach day.

A day local chasers LOVE.

Watch local weather sources for your own area.

Every area here in the path has it's own priorities.

I'll update later on TD4 probably TS Danny.

But you can seriously watch it on radar.

Again the main point is below.

The problem is that much of the weather is removed from the center so it's important to look at this Tropical Depression, probably TS Danny, as a huge weather maker with a center that lags behind the slap in the face of heavy rain and localized street flooding. Charleston, in particular due to it's topography of lack of elevation.  It's a another city built in a low lying area that had a harbor, bluffs and much of the land around it and included in it and Mt. Pleasant were and are basically low country with subdivisions built over them. It's a beautiful part of the world, but prone to problems when a tropical system makes landfall. In this case, the WEATHER is outrunning the CENTER. Down the road weather may wrap more but when they say it will arrive late this evening, know you're getting rain all day today and tomorrow. 

From 10 AM below.

The image above really tells the story in that the neat circulation is visible to the East of the strongest convection seen in yellows and golds. The NHC will be beginning advisories as of 11 AM and a cone will be put out.  Models are shown below so the cone will mostly follow the models and its close to land moving rapidly so there isn't much question in the short term where this goes and what it does.

Short term agreement on a landfall near Savannah.

Georgia and South Carolina borderlands.

Beautiful marsh, low country.

Prone to flooding in all the regular places.

What does it do inland more a question.

With elevation there's more problem with flooding.

Terrain adds a different layer to tropical rain.

AS FOR 95L

The original candidate for the name Danny.

www.spaghettimodels.com

All you need to know.

Models take it West then WNW.

You know the drill.

Threatens landfall or pulls away just in time.

Bahamas need to watch it.. if IT develops.

Honestly this is the story of IF it survives it WILL THRIVE down the road, but can it make it? Let's put it this way, it's going to be a wonderful trip if it has the gas to get where it's going or it's going to run out of gas and breakdown far from any service station. It's either a real player or dead in the water. Dry air, wind shear and low water temperatures are not popular friends for a system in June in an ocean with a dry atmosphere, even a big pocket wave such as 95L yet being big the models love it still so only time will tell. At this point recon becomes a factor in both systems and so we will know more sooner rather than later.

I'll update this afternoon. 

If you are traveling through this area unfamiliar with it do not get off the road and go sightseeing there could be localized flooding.  If you are a local you know where it floods and what to do to avoid it. This is NOT a big Hurricane, but it is very possible I believe this general area may be visited by a hurricane later in the season. Perhaps Danny will put up good reviews on Yelp for future tropical travelers. 

Stay tuned... 

Besos BobbiStorm

Ps again... we are busy now with the small stuff but down the road we will have bigger fish to fry and bigger problems than a weak Tropical Storm. Below is one of my favorite Jimmy Buffett songs .