TD 25 Forms... NHC 11 AM . Gamma Forming in the Caribbean. Waiting to See What Kind of TS It Will Be...

Still forecast to be a TS Gamma

This is the 5 PM Cone... 

..... putting this up so u see the lay of the land.

This is the forecast.

What I am concened on is the moisture train..

...zooming NE over South Florida.

Stalled out Frontal Boundary.

Video below.

That kind of says it all.

What will be with the second wave?

Only time will tell.

I'll be offline over the weekend for the Jewish Holiday of Sukkoth and I'll be back online Sunday Night. Check in with the NHC, I don't expect any surprises but hey that's why they are called surprises. 

The moisture train is going to be heavy for parts of Cuba, the Florida Keys and South Florida..all those people South of the beautiful Cold Front that stalled out there as they usually do that time of year.

The rest of the blog is still all true so keep reading. I'll be back Sunday night!

Official Cone for TD25

Forecast to be Gamma Soon.

Remember that part of the Yucatan is flat.

So land interaction could be an issue...

...but possibly not a huge one. 

The Discussion says two important things.

One low confidence as models differ.

They are conservative (last line) 

So here's something to think about.

The Wind Probs include Havana.

Havana is far from the 11 AM Cone.

Wind probs is an old school approach.

If it wasn't impt they wouldn't put it in the forecast.

Havana has low wind probs.

It's a disconnect.

It implies they aren't sure.

It's still coming together.

the video shows the high pressure to the NW.

A wide view is shown below.

High Pressure to the West and NW.

You have digging high pressure to it's East.

A huge MOISTURE FLOW to the NE.

I said "moisture" 

That's one heck of a moisture feed.

5 day shown above.

I'm not saying WIND that's rain...

These are my bottom line thoughts.

There are many variables and that is why the NHC discussion is more a Press Announcement that TD25 exists and that it is forecast to be Tropical Storm Gamma. The uncertainities are everywhere, and remember they only hoisted that Invest yesterday morning; those who follow me on Twitter know I was a bit annoyed wondering why they hadn't done so earlier. It's just my opinion, they are the bottom line official forecast so they make the call and they called it this morning. Now it seems they are playing catch up (never a good place to be) and by their own words they are "conservative" with that forecast package. So basically it's an announcement that it's here and expected to be a Tropical Storm soon.

Think of it like the current news of positive test results in the White House, we know now who has it so far, not who will test positive tomorrow nor do we know how those who have it will handle it from a health perspective. Many people have it and never know it and pass it along because they thought they were fine and the last test they took was negative. Others get very sick, some die, many recover but they are wiped for a while and it takes longer for them to completely be over it. We don't know, we just know the headlines and the current test results. That is basically where we are with TD 25 today, it's here and it's forecast to be a Tropical Storm.  Models show variable possibilities and models change often and is this the true final center as even mentioned in the discussion or will another center take over? Time will tell...

What we know. TD 25 is there, it should interact with the flat part of the Yucatan and a good part of it's moisture and circulation will be over water. We have danced this dance many times. What will matter is how fast this develops and yes it's been a fast developer the last 25 hours so if that continues the long range forecast will be different from a weak, poorly formed system hanging out around the Yucatan.  I'm not sold on the westbound models though a weak westbound tropical storm going towards Tex/Mex would be easier than a stronger Tropical Storm trying to be a hurricane in the GOM or a fast moving entity caught up in the fast flow dumping crazy amounts on Florida for the next several days.   Fast mover or slow mover? Will it be a TS at 2 PM or 5 PM? Was this a fast upgrade and a prelude to an upgrade to Gamma soon; it was an advisory package that forecasts a Tropical Storm if recon finds a TS.... remember they upgraded from satellite presentation and gotta tell you it's getting a great satellite presentation. 

Note how Mike always gives credit and thanks people.

That's wound up nicely there.

So I'll update later today. Let's see what the next model runs show but more so let's see what TD 25 does in real time while we watch and wonder.

Basically it tested postiive for having tropical characteristics. What kind of tropical characteristics will it manifest a weak, messy tropical storm or a hurricane? And, how fast will it move or will it be knocked for a loop by dry air and shear down the road?

Stay tuned.

2020 the only time in history we have hoped to fail a test. Go figure.

Be back later... 

Have a feeling today is a busy news day and there will be more news throughout the day.

The rest is from 10 AM.

When I waited because I knew it was a TD.

Keep reading if you didn't already 

* * * 

As I expected...... 

NHC put out a Press Release.

Tropical Depression 25 Forms...

So waiting for them to put out the Advisory Package.

91L looking nice.

Got that look.

Sense of a spin there.

Does it have a center?

Looks like a done deal top me.

Still watching the system behind it.

Some models like it more.

I really don't care about the models now.

I want to see what 91L really has under the hood.

This is a "hold this space"

Going to post after 11 AM.

Grid from Spaghetti Models.

1. Fall has arrived.

2. Models mostly go West.

3. Some break with the pack.

Until a closed center forms...

... models are addictive candy.

You can even see it's closed from far away.

So waiting to see what NHC says at 11 AM.

More to come...

Not saying goodbye...

...see you later.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram