UPDATE FIVE - ISAIAS Now Forecast to be a Hurricane.... Tropical Storm Watch Up For Parts of Florida. Carolinas on Alert. From the Carib Into the Atlantic. What Does It Look Like AFTER It Finishes That Passage......ISAIAS Pulling Together and Convection Closer to the Center Trying to Thread the Mona Passage & Avoid a Direct Tangle with the Mountains. What Happens in the Bahamas? A Florida East Coast Storm or Does it Recurve. Hurricane Could Be In It's Future.
5 PM Cone.
The continued trend to the right for now....
... Cone over Florida but maybe more a NC storm?
Oh and yes it is forecast now to be a hurricane.
By the NHC officially.
It most likely will be stronger than 75 MPH.
Even NHC hinted at that in their discussion.
More time over warmer water and Gulfstream is hot.
While it looks better for people in Florida.
It approaches the SC/NC coast.
Again Cones change.
So if you are in Florida keep watching carefully.
Changes happen in real time.
Anotehr example... if it intnsifies...
The wind field will go further out in all directions.
This is the issue shown below.
The huge pocket that is ISAIAS ... moistened up the High.
The area off the SE coast attacks it from the other side.
Lows go to lows... it will move towards low pressure.
Away fom High Pressure.
Meanwhile there is a Tropical Storm watch for S FL
Close up above shows where the center is.
It will emerge over the water soon.
And there is one that might form by Africa.
Currently NHC keeps it a short term project.
But that may change.
Those are the basics at 5.
More later but this is the trend.
Back later.
'
Much to say yet not much has changed.
We are still dealing with it's passage.....
...from Carib into Atlantic.
Plain and simple.
Isaias is located at 18.1 N 68.9 W
Moving NW at 20 MPH
Winds 60 MPH
Pressure 1003 MB.
Cone below.
I don't want to go long here so keeping it short and giving you my thoughts. From reading the NHC carefully worded discussion at 11 AM it is clear they have a good idea what it should do and yet there are many possibilities here as the real question is what does ISAIAS look like down the road strength wise a good six hours after it finishes it's passage into the Atlantic out of the Caribbean. The one constant with this system has been it's fast forward speed. It's averaged a forward speed of 20 MPH. There is talk of shear in the region that it will be traveling through yet shear forecasts often collapse fast in the light of reality and the evolution of events. Nice to look at them but hard to rely on them. If I had a dollar for every shear forecast that flopped badly I'd be really rich. Often they are right but like all forecasts they are updated in real time, it's a guide and a suggestion not carved in stone. The NHC, rightly so, leaves open the door cautiously for many things and there is low confidence currently in the intensity forecast. That said I'd explect a Hurricane out of this .... if it does indeed stay intact, wrap and coalesce and consolidate in the warm waters of the Bahamas near the Gulfstream. Timing is everything and so is location. I've seen many storms come to a slow crawl after barreling across the ocean in this region and nothing shows that now but it still feels the timing on this is off somewhere to me. Let's hope it sniffs high octane fuel by the Gulfstream and scoots out to sea tracing the coastline. But we can't rely on wishes and dreams ...............if 2020 has taught us anything..........it is to hope for the best and prepare for the worst. Cautiousness counts be it Covid or Tropical Weather.
I'll update later today. For now ISAIAS will do what it is going to do. And that also has been the one constant with a strong tropical wave that came off of Africa and was given low chances by many of not making it due to size. Then the NHC gave it better marks but it still didn't perform according to their expectations. It's stubborn and it finds a way to survive it seems.........so far. Stay Tuned. I see no reason not to expect it to be a hurricane if it indeed makes it across as an entity and the NHC does forecast that it stays just under hurricane strength, but as always they are conservative on Intensity.
I want to show new links this week.
Old links I haven't used in a while.
They are an awesome site among many great sites.
Each site offers something a bit different.
Good wind field map.
Keep watching...
...read please if you haven't done so already.
Image from 9 AM
Compare and contrast with new image at the top.
What a difference a day makes.
Wider view.
Way better looking Tropical Storm this morning.
Concentrated energy.
Convection over closer to the center.
Found the Mona Passage.
It obviously has a plan.
Storms that find the Mona Passage....
...often become big problems.
NRL map more tied to Wind Probabilities.
As always this changes in real time.
Starting here with this link because I do believe it says the most about the possibilities down the road with Tropical Storm ISAIAS.
Let's start up at the top of the cone.
For a change. Mixing it up.
Click on that you find New England
down to VA.
Then we move down the coast to the Carolinas.
Very likely one of these places sees it...
... Wilmington N to OBX.
Ocean Isle Beach.
Myrtle Beach down to Jacksonville Florida.
My favorite part of the world these days.
Even I'm in it as is Greensboro NC inland...
The beautiful Florida Coast.
From Key West up thru Miami
All the way up thru Orlando inland.
Next and lastly the wild cards.
The more Western option for ISAIAS
Tallahassee to the West...
and the Islands in it's direct path.
Gotta feel for the Bahamas.
This is ISAIAS NOT Dorian.
Not Matthew or Irma.
It's ISAIAS remember that.
But there is a Deja Vu feel here.
Again the link to use for Wind Probs.
AT4+shtml/300847.shtml?
Why Wind Probs... why not the MODELS? I can show models this afternoon. The models will adjust to what Isaias does and how the environment changes. The NHC uses models and they make the Cone for you, if the Cone budges left or right then the models did that. And the wind probs follow the models and the Cone. If the models pull North you will see Tampa, Mobile and Penscacola in the wind probabilities. If this looks like a direct hit for NC vs an Outer Banks brush then cities further to the West have higher wind probs or show up in the wind probs. If momdels pull to the right Raleigh loses it's wind probs. They are good indicators of future possibilities beyond the graphic and sometimes confusing cone.
Ye olde Wind Probs is a good guide to measure the possibilities and to be honest with this storm it's always been about possibilities and potential. Will that potential be realized and which possibility becomes a reality? That is our bottom line this morning. I'm staying short this morning and I'll update after the 11 AM and possibly wait until the next set of model runs. Though in truth the best thing to do today is to prepare for the 2020 Hurricane Season and possibily ISAIAS. If our I storm doesn't motivate you I don't know what will.
ISAIAS found it's easy way out of the Caribbean without a direct passage over Hispanoila taking the easy out by finding the Mona Passage the same way another recent wanna be did despite all the predictions for it crawling over Hispanoila.
Models today are only as good as the last model run. The hurricane center outlines the main models with their Cone and using the best data to forecast the track as we can tell best at this moment. If ISAIAS strengthens over the warm waters of the Bahamas it becomes a stronger storm and most likely pulls more to the East staying just off shore (hopefully) but if it stays weak and battles shear that some models forecast will be there it could wander West more and tangle with Florida directly.Being up in North Carolina long enough for me to learn the way of the Carolina storms it's easiest to just go set up camp in the Outer Banks if you want to chase this storm. The trend in models is what to watch metered with patience and waiting for the next model run. Today is a good day to keep double checking your plans if you live in an area where you are supposed to evacuate and don't assume anything in this year of Covid and anything goes. More on that in yesterday's blog in bold after a Press Conference with various Mayors on TWC and it was a real eye opener. So it's crucial this year to have a plan, a back up plan and know what your options are as well as getting to the store first to stock up as lines in a pandemic will be epic and leave you stories to tell your grandchildren.
Sweet Tropical Dreams,
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
Twitter mostly weather and Instagram weather and whatever.
Ps. Best song for the day is this one and I save that for these sort of storms trying to impress someone who didn't think it had much to it. I'd like to believe it's a one hit wonder, crosses over with mild impacts, cruises through the Bahamas and recurves out to sea but I don't feel that way about it so buckle up buttercups (as they say) it may be a crazy few days for Florida and Carolinas and parts of the East Coast unless it swims out to sea parralleling the coastline battling shear and well let's talk on that tomorrow. This morning it's singing "how do you like me now??"
Link to song, hope it works.
Blogger been odd today.
https://www.youtube.com/embed/3umaLe37-LE
posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:16 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home