93L Up to 90% Waiting on Upgrade to TD or TS Bret ... 92L Still There Moving West.

Upclose look 

Looking good...

Short update for Sunday morning. Please read the previous post as it has relevant information that well is still relevant this morning. Recon is going into Invest 93L today and after that data is relayed and studied and we may or may not have an upgrade for 93L to Tropical Depression or TS Bret. Again remember this season the NHC can post watches and warnings in advance of actual formation. Will they use this system as a dry run for the general public or wait until an actual system forms with a closed center? As we have seen over the years there has been the search for the west wind, closed circulation before issuing advisories. This year the rules have changed so this system poses an interesting situation. Formation as it moves up into the Gulf of Mexico where it becomes a landlocked entity makes it the proverbial bull in the china shop.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-62.00,14.30,787



Two things I want to say about the image above. With regard to 93L it is trying to close off circulation where we have been watching, however it's convection is still misplaced off to the right and that could continue for some time until conditions improve. However it looks way better this morning than it has for days. Conditions have been forecast to improve for intensification and that is why we have spent so much time watching what has been until recently a large area of disorganized convection. Currently 93L has 90% chance of intensification which is as good as it gets as 100% usually comes hours before a name is given to a well developed tropical wave. 92L in the Atlantic has lower odds and yet the image above shows a small, defined area of circulation. Watching 92L on the loops it looks better as far as spin does today than 93L that still has that grye sort of look to it. 92L is really lacking in convection vs 93L that is consolidating convection. I've also heard the word subtropical way too many times regarding 93L in the last 24 hours. You'll remember I wrote about that a few days back and if it gets into the GOM a baroclinic looking odd shaped, large system could form and closer to the coast that could tighten up and become truly tropical.

Recon helps make the call not satellite imagery passed around online so we are waiting on recon.

VS

Invest 92L is at a low latitude cruising along like a small, compact speed boat. It may crash upon the rocks of South America or slide into the Caribbean via the lower islands. Trinidad especially needs to watch this .... however it has been a small system and models have a hard time picking up on small systems. It's a mathematical, scientific sort of thing and I'm not going to explain it other than to say they have problems latching on to itsy, bitsy circulations. 92L is up against great odds, however it's relatively organized nature and spin has helped hold it together so far so keep watching.

With due respect to the stubborn Euro and GFS most models have come together on the North Gulf of Mexico as a possible target for what most likely will become Tropical Storm Bret. A nudge to the West or East cannot be ruled out so everyone from Galveston to Tampa need to watch this area as it develops and evolves. Obviously the threat is highest from Louisiana to the NW coast of Florida but Texas is still in the drawing this morning.

Models have not killed off 92L despite it's weaker status.

So keep watching it.

However main stage is the GOM

The main player this morning is the B storm!

92L is struggling but still there.

Today is Father's Day and whether you have children or not or grandchildren all of us had a father even if we were not close to him or he died. We had a grandfather or uncles or neighbors who filled in the blanks and did things with us and provided a role model to what a good father should be. I'm sure even little test tube babies got genes from fathers they never knew. In a changing, beautiful world we still give credit where credit is due and thank the men in our lives. Some Uncles have made made bigger impressions than parents and some fathers can never be replaced. It's a day to celebrate men I believe and their role in shaping the younger generation. When I was young my Uncle was my main role model, however he died when I was in my preteens. My father was a hard working good man who was rarely home in my early years while my Uncle Oscar remained center stage during those years shaping and molding me into who I am today. As I got older my father and I became much closer as he was better with older kids than small children. Oddly he made an awesome grandfather for my little kids so go figure. I loved both my Uncle and my father equally and respect the parts they contributed to the whole. Now I am in awe of my sons who have made amazing father's and uncles to my grandchildren. Yes, I am that old ;) but in my world women start out being grandmothers at a somewhat younger age.

So going to spend time today out and about. I'll be posting, updating and tweeting throughout the day and if there is some sort of upgrade I will post a brief post to be followed by a longer, in depth post while my stepdaughter cooks dinner for her father.

And, that's the story. Regarding models and disagreement I want to leave you with this thought. They all have some relevant information, however the final out put sometimes looks impossible. A good forecaster at the NHC has to take that information, find the gems like a good prospector and put together a forecast package to protect all of us. The Euro has been climbing in latitude away from it's Tex Mex scenario and aligning itself more with the rest of the pack. After a true center forms that information will be put into the next set of model runs that should deliver a more reliable package. Til then think of them as a sort of comedy show of sorts.. you know with 1980 chase scenes all chasing about for the fastest route to landfall. 

Mike posted this yesterday.

Mike is an AWESOME father!

Not sure if this email link is still good.

mailto:rcthunder@aol.com

IF so email him and tell him to update his picture ;)

His girls are growing up fast.

Mike and I go way back.

I won't say how far back ...

..as that would be telling.

But I'm telling y'all ..

Mike is one awesome father.

So Happy Father's Day.

Feel free to tell him so!

https://www.facebook.com/mikesweatherpage/

As for the models, until we have a real storm in the GOM just look at them as entertainment. A high is forecast, by some models, to develop aloft and ventilate this mess in the Caribbean into a named entity. As for the westbound stubborn 92L keep watching. 

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter. Follow me there for faster updates! My Uncle loved this musical so I'm putting this up here for him and for you. Think about it when watching the ever changing models and smile......... be happy. Happy Father's Day!

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2017/06/93l-forms-and-92l-hangs-on-which-model.html

Please read as it has good information still...