One Month to Go til Hurricane Season. May 1st.. Just Breathe and Watch the Patterns and Just Breathe.

May 1st awakens every tropical weather person to reverie every time they see a wave off Africa or convection in the Caribbean. Today marks a month until the start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season and more importantly 15 days until the start of the EPAC season where convection tends to wrap itself up into named storms first. From year to year this can change, but it's a pattern and Climatography dictates watching both sides of Central America this time of year. Storms form from convection that lingers on both sides of the Isthmus of Panama and there can only be one winner. If anything forms in the EPAC it would be Adrian and in the Atlantic Bret. Keep that in mind and don't start asking "what if it crosses over" before anything even forms.

I can tell it's getting closer to Hurricane Season when chatter online increases and people squabble over nothing except details that matter mostly to the Devil. To be clear we are already on the B storm and I'm not going to second guess or criticize or high five the NHC for their naming the system in the Atlantic Arlene. Life goes on, let's move on...

Watch where the moisture connects.

Watch where it flows.

Watch patterns set up.

Note the convection in the Gulf of Mexico link up with the frontal boundary pushing East. Watch what happens when that convection makes it down into the Caribbean and people online begin to bicker as to the possibilities for an early May storm. I don't watch for the storm, I watch the bickering and hype as signs of what will be down the line. Weather models are fun, but not as much fun as meteorologists. When people get hungry they get nasty, competitive and many are hungry for a "real hurricane season" whatever that is - - - as we haven't had one in a while. Last year was busy and yet it was not your normal Hurricane Season. Storms formed and faded away as if some Weather Witch was putting a spell on them to die an early death and yet they came back over and over. Colin and Hermine are probably best remembered for being Invests that fought to get a name and both made landfall. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Atlantic_hurricane_season

In the rear view mirror and the lens of history 2016 turned out to be a rather active hurricane season despite it's preliminary reviews in March and April of 2016. Remember that when throwing in the towel before the fight has begun or giving up half way through while blaming the moon and everything else for killing off the hurricanes. It takes time and time will always tell in the end.

Look at the map above ....

...you see the usual suspects.

Storms formed in the Eastern Atlantic for a change and most swam out to sea as fish storms usually do. Storms formed in the Caribbean and some went West and others took that popular route towards Florida. Julia formed over Florida and I got to intersect her path while driving South to visit family and friends after seeing Julia first. Everything in life is timing, especially storm chasing. Julia may not have been strong but the wind blew through my hair, it rearranged things, caused flooding and in general was an appetizer to the area that was to experience Hurricane Matthew down the road.

A look back at Matthew with early discussion and long range models.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2016/09/97l-matthew-its-models-making.html

Then Invest 97L formed into Matthew and odd things began to happen. Who can remember the photogenic Hurricane Matthew spinning, building, partying just off the coast of South America? Which model was right? Which way would he go? Would that displaced convection hurt him or help him or was it really an irrelevant question in the end? Meteorology students will study Matthew for a long time I believe.

In the end Matthew flirted with Miami.

Traveled up the coast a bit to the East of Julia's track.

The powers that be debated if this was landfall.

Some moments from Matthew.

You decide? Looks like landfall to me.

But did the center of the eye make landfall?

Devil is in the details.

So are statistics it seems.

So while hearing early discussion on the 2017 Hurricane Season I would suggest you take it all with a lot of sea salt and watch it play out in real time. El Nino years often bring the biggest hurricanes (Andrew, Betsy to name two) and each El Nino is different and sometimes things that come together fast also fade away as fast. Mother Nature often has the last word the way she did with Hurricane Matthew.

So enjoy your favorite version of my theme of the morning with regard to the Hurricane Season that is now officially a month away, even though we are looking for the B storm already.

Just breathe............

As for me I've got things to do and here and there I loop a loop.

I learned much from 2016. I smelled a scent I liked but balked at buying it as it was expensive and sometimes you like a scent and then after a while you rarely use it ... and well I didn't buy it. Big mistake....

I really loved this scent, but a few weeks later when I finally decided to buy it ... it was gone. 

People bought it up and sold it on Ebay for way more than it was at Saks. Sigh.

So this trip to Miami I bought a scent I liked as I learned a good lesson. 

I wish I had the Orange Bitters from Jo Malone more ... but what can I do?

Except to live and learn and move on and now I'm wearing Magnolia Star today.

It's a nice scent and comes with a fake flower and as we know packaging is everything.

The magnolia trees here are just starting to bloom so I'll be in tune with the seasons.

Weather people love to bicker because they love weather and are passionate about it both in real time and in the rear view mirror. It's part and parcel of the Hurricane Season. For some reason people argue less over blizzards and tornadoes than they do hurricanes. Be warned we are moving into the Mean Season and it's called the "mean season" for a reason.

Besos BobbiStorm

Add me on Twitter at @bobbistorm

Ps. Yesterday was a banner day for me. I had a son-in-law in Budapest, a son in La Paz and my youngest son flying off to Madrid. Everyone's traveling and I'm happy to be home today, this week and who knows where I'll be the week after that. Wherever I am I'll be watching the weather and blogging. My brother in Greece is closer to my youngest son today than I am ... go figure. He's an artist, he is passionate about ART in any form. He writes, he makes films, he taught himself the flute and loves the harmonica. He did a short film for a project for a school there named Lord Byron School and he used the brilliant idea of using Lord Byron in the film. It's relaxing, creative and makes you want to just lie on the beach and breathe and ponder beauty in all forms both literature, nature and of course the beauty of people. Enjoy it. 

Can you tell we are related ?? Beautiful, especially for anyone who loves beauty and the harmonica.