Tropics Friday. Wave Train Leaving Africa. SAL Forecast to Weaken.. maybe..

Back to One . . .

The truth is nothing has really changed.

The models no longer favor the area off the SE Coast.

It didn't catch it's ride yet NE with a trof.

The area of disturbed weather is still there.

It's also still in the GOM.

It's one long trof.

Travel with me to this hard to find link:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml

Long discussion on lingering convection.

This discussion can be found on the NHC page.

But, unlike Playboy everyone goes to the NHC for the pictures...

Peek at the picture first and then read the discussion!!

They update this every 6 hours even when there is no named storm.

It gives you all the news around the tropical basin.

After a while it's easy to understand.

Let's put this in motion:

So... the area from the broad area of convection is still there.

It's in theory leaving Monday NE bound.

In theory..

Cold fronts are unpredictable the first week in August.

The wave off of Africa is hanging in there still.

Running around with SAL...or just below it.

SAL is on top.

Our Invest has a pal and another pal.

All the wave pals are departing from Africa.

SAL is running with them ....

SAL is forecast to weaken a bit.

Each wave pal weakens SAL a bit for the next wave.

We call it a wave train.

The thing about a wave train is that eventually one of them gets through.

Hurricane History is littered with the wave that made it thru...

...in a weak season.

They don't read the weather forecast or El Nino discussion.

They are like Venus in Scorpio...

They hang on... 

They keep dreams alive.

They just keep coming, rolling West

Time will tell........

I'll update as time tells ;)

Besos Bobbi