Hurricane Harbor: Recon in .. No Upgrade Yet. Strong winds, No Center... PS. I Love Miami :)

This is an update of the previous post.

Recon went in, found the winds but no closed center.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/071741_MIATWOAT.shtml

A center COULD develop with time.

Either way beach hazards, winds, high surf remain.

Salient part of the discussion:

"Environmental conditions are favorable for some additional

development, and any increase in the organization of

the associated thunderstorm activity would result in the

formation of a subtropical
cyclone. "

Keep watching for the latest information

www.spaghettimodels.com

I'll update when and if there is an upgrade to Depression or named status

Post below is from this morning at 11 AM

before recon could not find a center

Better luck next trip in?

Post below describes the situation

http://www.spaghettimodels.com/cities/myrtlebeach.htm

You can watch this system in real time on the link above.

Waiting on recon to gather information this morning from the non-tropical low pressure system off the Carolina coastline. It's looked better on the last several frames but it's still disorganized. As for an upgrade to a designated system they need to get a good up close picture of what is going on at all levels of the atmosphere. It's proximity to the coast and the numerous models that take it onto shore makes this a more compelling set up than if it was meandering off the coast in the middle of the Atlantic.

Not much to say definitive until the data comes in, gets evaluated, analyzed and the NHC gives their opinion. It's sort of like putting nail polish on. You pick an Essie color, in this case "madison \ave-hue"and then you put it on, then 3 people call to make plans fast (while it's wet) and you have to hope it will dry in time to finish getting dressed for the party. Or... yeast for the bread to rise or get to the pier before the fish are all gone... Nuff said. We are in wait and see mode.

Note it's moving a bit to fast or part of it is, its a LARGE system and if there is a consolidated area of low pressure at the surface is the real question. The weather is already on shore. Note some models take it on shore and bounce it off and..

Check http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ for immediate updates. Be like most storm tracker/chasers you can check it every 5 seconds or as fast as it lets you.

Where we stand this morning.