Hurricane Harbor: Will Invest 91L become Tropical Storm Arthur? Most likely...

Keeping this short tonight as the hurricane hunters aka "Recon" go in tomorrow & we should know more.

The planes = better data.

Short and sweet.

The first morning visible will say much though...

Yes we have Xray vision with sats now days but...nothing like seeing something up close and personal with your own eyes. The first morning visible is as close as it gets until the recon goes in..

Things to remember.

1) It's over very warm water...way above the 80 degree mark. Some of the water it will sit over is up to 85 degrees making this feel more like a mid July system than an end of June one.

2) There is a high aloft. IF it can't get it's act together with a high aloft there is no hope ...

3) Light shear... no strong winds to blow it apart.

Negatives?

Some dry air and a high to it's north is stopping it from going anywhere. Then again that keeps it over warm waters off the coast of FL and GA with even warmer water over the Gulf Stream.

Where would it go? Everyone is guessing on Twitter, but reality is... it's going to dawdle, loop and dance a bit off the coast of the FL/GA line just south of the Carolina beaches. Then it will swing back to the NE or N or NW. May I add here it is ENTIRELY POSSIBLE the tracks will look different in a day or so. It could go in to the south of the current track if the high is stronger and/or depending on the next front that moves down and to the East. That front aka trof could pull it towards land or carry it away. Look for OBX to be in play depending on timing... Often...systems like this go out to sea. Upwelling could be a problem at some point if it sits to long.