Never Trust a Forecast... PS Atlantic quiet, Pacific not quiet

Tropics Thursday:

Facts:

There is an area of convection in the Caribbean that is blowing up or as we say "blooming"  nicely, however the models do not like it ...in fact, the models are down right ignoring it. Hard to ignore when you look at a satellite view you go "WOW" but if you look at the NHC site it says "nothing happening" and imagine at 2pm they have a real question as whether to post a yellow circle or ignore it like the models.

Time will tell.

This is Daniel in the Epac...notice it has a circulation, a rounded ball of convection with a center...

It's just rain, no real circulation but it is headed towards Hispaniola, Cuba and South Florida.

Note...this does NOT have organization:

Has two areas of convection and has had two strong areas of convection for a while now. Maybe one will develop close in ...once it's in warmer water and past the bulk of the African Dust.. maybe not.

My guess is the NHC will blink and put up a Yellow Circle with low odds, maybe even 0% to 10%, though think it might need some model support for even a 10. Will see.

Carolina Beer?

As for me... watching online after a fun night out at 4th Night where the cold beer flowed and the music played and the fireworks were beautiful and it was fun, fun, fun. Of course, it took almost an hour to get out of the City parking garage because it didn't occur to them that there would be traffic and it's the first time they did it downtown and they didn't hire extra police?? (major fail) until people got out of their cars to help direct traffic... 2 points for moving it downtown, major fail on not thinking ahead on the traffic issue.... though that is how Raleigh handles snow..they wait for it to melt and when it doesn't...rather than send out the snow trucks they keep canceling school....

Note...the last half is my rant on Raleigh, NC.

If you know anyone who has been drinking the Kool Aid on how this is the best place to move to, please pass it along. It does have it's moments, there are moments I love it here ...when I am here... but more often I am like "huh?" and wondering why there are no stores downtown and why all the restaurants close from 2 to 5:30 and I keep wondering when they are going to be ready for prime time.

That said... I do love a few things here .... there is always something to love about anywhere. But, it's not Miami... or L.A. or Santa Monica or Malibu or South Beach and it's really  not Key West though it does feel a bit like the Grove when you are in Carrboro near Weaver Street Market.

Besos Bobbi

:)



Major Rant on Raleigh:

First of all.... all of the weather forecast sites showed the Heat Wave in the Carolinas as breaking by this weekend.... weekend past....Monday, July 2nd was supposed to usher in cooler temps (low 90s...upper 80s) and the week was supposed to be noticeably cooler.

They were wrong. They lied or more so misjudged the models or didn't believe them... that happens frequently when you have a historic prolonged event that goes against climo.

It's like betting with the odds vs what you see and known deep down inside. Happens often, you see something with your eyes but you go by the models or you go by what is normal.

The problem with weather (which is day to day vs climo which is long term) is.... it's harder to predict "weather" than it is a general climo forecast. How the Almanac does it so often, I don't know but it's not just a climo thing...they actually use other factors ...some celestial it seems. New Moons, Mars, Venus.... patterns... not very scientific but often pretty good.

But, the forecast for Raleigh is now HOT, HOT and maybe cooler next week...

Weather for Raleigh, NC

96°F | °C

Thu

Fri

Sat

Sun

Partly Cloudy

Wind: SW at 9 mph

Humidity: 49%

99°

79°

104°

75°

100°

77°

102°

77°

When I cancelled that ticket to Miami last week I went with the forecast as an excuse not to spend the money and to go in August instead after the Brooklyn wedding later this month. And, the wave was forecast not to develop into Ernesto ....so............I figured I'd save the money and well.....

It's hot. And, the problem with HOT in Raleigh is it bothers my breathing. Saying this now as anyone who reads the nonstop literature about what a wonderful place the Triangle is to live.. I want to say right here and now ...NOT. It's way too cold in the winter. It's way too hot in the summer. There is no air movement, none (except just prior to a thunderstorm) so the red clay bakes and you can smell it. Because there are so many trees, nothing really dries out after a rain so mildew and mold grow everywhere.   That said... if you have the money, North Carolina is beautiful in the Spring and Fall but a major FAIL the rest of the year. If you have breathing problems, allergy problems...if you suffer from any of these conditions think twice before jumping on the "let's move to North Carolina" baby boomer train. In my case... it works because I am often not here and it's more a vacation spot for me in ways. 

And, they cannot get a forecast straight to save their life. Two days before a possible blizzard they are still looking at the models...even 24 hours before you may not be able to leave the house for 3 days due to an Ice Storm or Snow Event happens they STILL cannot get a forecast right. 

I wish I had put up the forecast last week... it showed upper 80s and low 90s at the most. I'm sorry, a bad forecast is one that is off by TEN degrees when the difference is 90 as a daytime high to 100 degrees to a daytime high. And, everyone round here acts like this is totally normal. They say the weather here is bi-polar... nice, very nice.

Now supposedly......................this coming Tuesday the night time temps will drop to the upper 60s and daytime highs will be in the 80s.

My point here is...do not trust any front that is going to "protect" the Eastern Seaboard or the Coastal South this particular summer. Not happening. The door to a landfall is open if a storm manages to develop close in and the high pulls out just enough to leave that path open... 

As for me... enjoying the blessed AC, things I am thankful for.... cool smoothies, Menchies, walks through Fresh Market and Whole Foods as it seems I need to stay indoors.  Today's words of wisdom from the TV Weather: "Asthma or respiratory ailments you will feel it today so stay inside" (rolling eyes).

There is MUCH I do love about NC when I am here.

Chapel Hill

9th Street Durham

North Hills

Wilmington Pier

Watching the sunset over the river in Wilmington

MYRTLE BEACH where I can close my eyes and think I am home in my MB.

thinking..................Ocean Isle Beach, oh I love OIB.

Outer Banks must have been nice once upon the time... now it's rickety, rackety, tacky and a big tourist trap... beaches are boring, houses are all on top of each other, poorly built and not well taken care of and not the nicest get away...

Oriental and New Bern are nice... 

Maneo is much nicer than the Outer Banks tho it's fun to see Kill Devil Hills. Been there, done that... better places to watch the sunset or rise. 

"there are some indications that we will be significantly cooler next week"  from the Weather on the Ones who are not that bad.

Last of all on this NC rant...there are way too many Yankees in Raleigh... it is the least Southern place I have ever seen ... but as my grandma would point out... "it's called NORTH Carolina" 

Yup.

Anyway.... if you are so afraid of all the wonderful diversity in Miami (meaning people from places where there are darker skin tones... which includes Spanish people, Jamaicans, Haitians, Israelis selling tee shirts and Iranians and all the other local color we have down in Florida that I love... and you are too stupid to go take a class and learn how to speak Spanish...   please by all means move to North Carolina.... where there is the illusion that "English" is the only language spoken and it's a "nice place" which is my personal peeve as when people here say "they don't go down to Miami, they prefer the West Coast beaches" it means ....they are afraid to go to Miami. Rolling eyes... really?? Seriously?? And, yes I did say that... because I have never yet had a Spanish or Black person say to me "Oh, Miami... no I go to the west coast to Naples" and when I say I am from Miami you can see people eyeing me trying to figure out if maybe I am Spanish or something.  A lot of the more local pale skin types (which usually means they are transplanted from Pittsburgh, Baltimore or Cleveland) always look at me nervously when I say I am from South Beach. They have this look of terror and always mention Naples or Ft Myers or Destin .... as if I didn't know which side of the coast of Florida they choose to take their vacations south to...already...  And, btw...there are so many transplanted people from Pittsburgh that the local paper is more prone to cover the Steelers than the Carolina Panthers.

If you love trees, up north sort of forested trees... oaks, spruce, poplar, one with the little round gum ball things I can't think of it's name... and pines you will love the Piedmont of North Carolina. If you love the seasons but don't like snow... or a breeze... you will love it here. If you like crickets and cicadas that make a racket all night and morning... you will love it here. 

If you like to be near the water and like coastal pines, hanging moss, magnolia trees and palmetto palms...come on down but head for South Carolina or that part of North Carolina that should be South Carolina...Wilmington Beach and south.... as the state border cuts funny.

That's it. 

That's my NC rant. 

4th Night downtown was nice... the place did rock. Beer Tents filled with different local beers, music playing live, people dancing, fireworks at the Capital... had fun. Weather was nice, sort of doable as it dropped 20 degrees after the strong storm rolled through 3 hours earlier (luckily) then forecasted... and cooled everything off.