Monday Roundup in the Tropics

Well, the Atlantic part of the tropics...

I will note that there is a nice wave coming off of Africa. That said, there was a nice wave that came off of Africa last week... not that much has changed. We did get an Invest, but the wave fizzled fast after that and this new wave has the same negative elements to face that the previous one did... nice, but not yet.

The Caribbean looks pretty good, clear sailing weather which is despite parts of the old wave moving through that area. No models develop any parts of it... it could flare up but if you have a yacht or sailboat and sailing through that region... enjoy :)

The Atlantic close in is pretty calm...remnants of the derecho and an ULL are out there ...also nothing forecast by the models.

The Pacific most likely will have a named system, if so development to the east in the Carib will most likely not happen as shear will develop.

Which leaves us with the Gulf of Mexico that is for now quiet... but something is bothering me about the system anchored over the SE and moisture that is spinning around the edges of that area...

Here's a close up:

Sometimes in similar El Nino years (1997 comes to mind) a system will develop close in and if moisture moves down into the Gulf of Mexico and lingers... something could develop. I didn't say it will, just saying I am leaving the door open for something close in later this week worth watching. Similar to the moisture that lingered near the Tex-Mex border last week as a yellow circle but nothing worthy of a name.

In years like this... we need to watch close in for development.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

A swirling long shot, but one worth noting here...

Note this has happened, doesn't often but does in years similar to this where we see development from things other than wandering tropical waves.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1997danny.html

"On 13 July, a broad upper-tropospheric trough over the southeastern United States triggered a cluster of thunderstorms over the lower Mississippi River valley. This area of convection drifted southward over the north-central Gulf of Mexico coastal waters, and appears to have contributed to the formation of a small, weak surface low near the coast of Louisiana on the 14th."

Sort of playing a "what if" scenario here and putting it down to refer to later IF something does develop. 

Otherwise, for those in DC still without power and with trees still down across the capital and most of the commuter cities in that region a hurricane on the horizon would be difficult to think on. That said, I still think we could have a hit in that region later in the season with the current weather pattern of close in development and high heat and frontal boundaries draped across that region. Sometimes...when a region is "hot" it's HOT and a pattern develops.

Keep watching... stay cool.... 

Besos Bobbi

Ps...Again models do not show development... I'm just looking at patterns and similar analog years and wondering on what might happen... as all that swirly convection down there is very Deja Vu for people who remember other storms forming in that region in similar years.