NHC Tracking Vanishing Center as Rina's Rains Track Towards South Florida
This feels so Deja Vu of Irene 1999 that no matter how many times I close my eyes and open them again I think to myself I've seen this scenario before.
Look at this loop:
It shows a MTE (Mass Tropical Ejection) headed NE from the tip of the Yucatan towards South Florida. Exactly the way the models showed this would play out about 7 to 10 days ago.
Look at the wider view:
As seen in this picture the circulation center is barely visible over the tip of the Yucatan, however the rain and weather associated with Tropical Storm Rina is moving as an entity towards South Florida caught up in the Southwesterly flow out ahead of a frontal boundary to the North of Florida. There are still Tropical Storm force winds caught up currently in this area and it will most likely affect the South Florida area with some severe weather in the next few days. Stay tuned to your favorite local weather forecasters and pay attention to any NWS bulletins they may issue and stay closely informed on changing weather in your area. The "low level center" that the NHC was tracking may be dying out.... but the weather is not dying out, not yet.
This won't be Irene from 1999. But it could have been and whatever it will be my hope is you are watching the local weather and not ignoring it because you hear that Rina died a quiet death down on the tip of the Yucatan and then you get heavy flooding, your car gets stuck in a parking lot in Aventura and strong winds blow your patio furniture around in an unconfirmed tornado.
Watch your local weather:
It shows Rina or the remnants of Rina surging NNE to NE towards South Florida caught up in the strong SW flow that is riding out ahead of the weak cold front that is going to bring out temperatures back to a slightly less balmy 72 degrees at night vs 75 at night.
Google Weather for 33162 my home zip code:
81°F | °C Fri Sat Sun Mon
84° 73° 79° 72° 79° 74° 80° 72°
Wind: SE at 5 mph
Do you see a cold front moving through South Florida?
No. That's one of those "our temperatures are a bit milder from a weak frontal passage"
For 33162: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Miami&state=FL&site=MFL&lat=25.77&lon=-80.2
To change that to your local area, put your zip code into the top and get your local forecast.
Hazardous Weather Outlook should be clicked on as well.
For instance mine says this:
"FLOODING: THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH MAY LEAD TO MINOR URBAN
Yes, some people do pay attention to their local forecasts and the NWS. Unfortunately, not enough do as they check in to see what the NHC said in their advisory and then they go back to their favorite cable channel or watch the last 3 episodes they missed of their favorite show. We were trained to check the latest advisory and when they say it is dying out and being downgraded we go "oh, guess that's that" but that is not always that's that. There is often more to the story.
Do you see a vortex down near the tip of the Yucatan going southbound? No. I do see weather from 97 trying to pull together but having a difficult time and a high aloft that could possibly help 97 come together as a named system but I don't see Rina's lower or mid level vortex. I'm sure it's down there somewhere on the visible, a wisp of a swirl that the NHC is going to keep tracking as they hand off the mass that is/was Rina to the NWS to forecast.
Official Track Forecast for Rina:
This is silly guys. I'm sorry. I call it as I see it to quote an old weather friend.
South Florida is going to get deluged with the remnants of what will be down graded but what is the remnants of Rina and someone is going to get very wet and somewhere it's gonna get very windy. Where exactly I don't know, because weak systems like this spread out over a larger area than if she was a neat Category 1 storm with a clearly defined center.
And, since my purpose here is to talk to my friends in the South Florida area I'm saying this:
Just because Rina is officially downgraded (or isn't) we will get a very rainy weekend. We as in everywhere from Tampa/Orlando south down to the Keys and including Naples, Miami, Ft Lauderdale/Hollywood and West Palm Beach. At this rate as the front dips a bit south areas to the north of Palm Beach along the Daytona coast may get a lot of weather.
Not a fun beach day unless you like to go to the beach and take pics of the beach.
How fast it will take to go through..not sure.
Let me say I do understand why the NHC is doing what it is doing and saying what it is saying. It is how they work and they work by many rules that they have to stand by. I don't. I tell it the way I see it and I am either right or wrong. I do not have to answer to a lot of higher ups. Either you keep reading my blog or you don't. I'm giving good information you need in an informative and often entertaining way or I am not.
Line from NHC at 8AM:
..RINA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...
"THE RAGGED APPEARANCE IN RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE SMALL CIRCULATION OF
RINA MAY ALREADY BE SUCCUMBING TO THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. SOME MID-LEVEL ROTATION HAS BECOME APPARENT JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE TIP OF YUCATAN...WHEREAS SURFACE OBS INDICATE THE
SURFACE CENTER IS STILL OVER LAND. WITH THE VERTICAL CIRCULATIONS
FORECAST TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN SLOWLY EASTWARD
AND THEN TURN SOUTHWARD BACK OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BY
24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS WELL TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS...TVCN
Line from BobbiStorm:
Stay tuned at this point to the NWS because they will be the ones that will be tracking what was or is Rina not the NHC who will pronounce her dead in the water south of the Yucatan shortly... unless something big time changes over there and I doubt it will.
They were tracking the organized center of a system, not a "weather mass" and as we learned in 1999 a Weather Mass can be a real Weather Mess if you are not prepared for it and you don't switch over to the NWS for news when the NHC decides your area is not getting hit by a significant named swirl. We may not be getting a Tropical Storm but we may be getting a very tropical mess.
Point: The hype may be gone, but the weather is still there. Hoping for a sunny day on Saturday and balmy weather but if not don't be taken by surprise.
And, according to the NHC keep watching the other two areas for possible development.
Up north...enjoy the snow.
Down south...enjoy the sunshine and the occasional rain. And, be glad she "fell apart" and the rain you feel on your face tomorrow is not from a Hurricane!
Moral of the story....if you live in South Florida learn Spanish ;) and listen to that little voice down in your gut even if it makes no sense sometimes.
Pps...sorry for any mistakes or typos..... not on my own computer but on a really nice big Apple :)
Enjoy as I stroll down memory lane as I listen youtube as my daughter-in-law who I love very, very much makes a smoothie instead of going into labor ;)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KKC3W0awjm0 <---award winner
Ever notice the same actor is in this movie as in Twister :)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H4eSrpb4SDU (really in the mood for this movie)