Recon trying to figure out Bonnie - Tropical Storm Warnings for Miami
She looks good, she looks weak, she looks good again. Not a good scenario for a storm that is that close in and about to pass over a spot of very hot water. I mean if you say she is weak and then people go to sleep and wake up tomorrow with a 55 mph Tropical Storm in their face they will not be happy campers.
Miami and most of SE Florida and the Florida Keys have a Tropical Storm Warning. Yes Virginia, I am in Miami while there is a tropical storm warning :)and Bonnie which is like my alter ego in jokes often..
The Upper Level Low is moving away, she seems to have slowed a bit or is simply at the hairdresser having her hair and nails done. Not sure but whatever she is doing she has moved more to the northeast than wnw so would chalk that off to a relocated center vs real time movement.
1 07/22 11:00 AM 21.9N 75.0W 35MPH 1008mb Wnw at 15 MPH (295 deg) TD TD#3 07/22
1A 07/22 2:00 PM 22.3N 74.9W 35MPH 1008mb Wnw at 15 MPH (295 deg) TD TD#3 07/22
Going WNW she should be at 22.2 and 75.1 and yes we are splitting hairs but meteorology is all about math and consistency and when something isn't consistent there is a reason.
The track has been consistent... though if the trend continues they will have to nudge the cone to the north (right) just a bit. Also, unless she wraps it together tightly most of the weather is to the north and east of the storm so people far from the "center" could get the worst weather. Also... she has a long, long band of rain that goes down to Cuba and that will track across the Keys and continue to feed moisture into her watery heart :)
By 5pm we will have some better answers to a lot of questions... so hang tight and then decide what your plans for tomorrow will be if you live in the South Florida area... and I do.
Later... we will worry about her impact along the Gulf Coast and which particular coastline will get her second landfall and we will have a better idea how strong she will be when she gets there.
Lastly... remember storms can ramp up fast while in the Gulf Stream and that becomes a problem for a city just to the west of the Gulf stream so you can never turn your back on a simple little Tropical Depression or Girlie named Bonnie...
Besos Bobbi :)