Good Morning Fred and TGIF!!!

See Fred far out in the Atlantic Ocean ... look below and see where he may go...



The above model is the GFS and it's illustrated, interpretation of it's model output. It seems the models over night continued their westward runs of a weakened Fred that gets underneath a strong high pressure ridge and tries to make a run for the Gold. The only problem is... they keep Fred a weak Fred and some even make him into the ever popular tropical entity of the 2009 Hurricane Season... a "remnant low."

Notice how it all rhymes.. remnant low, where to do you go, stay low or to quote a Michael W. Smith song... "Go West Young Man" yet some of the other models go east.



What will it be for Fred? Can he reform himself? Maybe...

That is also what the NHC alluded to in their 5am discussion, the possibility that he is reforming a bit to the SW...but that was just thrown out there like yesterday's leftovers and not as a "for sure" possibility. They left the door open, in case they do just that. If that happened it would change the models and make them probably even come in lower and more to the west.. but that's just a possibility right now! It is possible as if you watch the loops it looks like he parked anchor out there to fight the shear. Possibly put the sails down? Isn't that what sailboats do? Not much of a sailor here and my sailor friends sailed away to ports of call from which they send occasional postcards. Maybe they will run into Fred out there somewhere.

So... Don't count him out just yet but have a great weekend and see where he is on Sunday Night. Of course, they said that about Andrew in Miami on Friday August 21, 1992 but by Sunday Night we could feel his breath on our face at the ocean as his storm surge pounded South Beach before his assault on South Florida. Of course, Andrew was a whole lot closer than Fred is so really... go to the beach, enjoy one last weekend in the sun. But, the lesson to be learned from Andrew is never to count out a weak storm fighting shear mid-ocean as it moves westward as barely a tropical depression or a remnant low. But, remember... there are few like Hurricane Andrew, that is why he is one for the record books.

As for me, I am going shopping! Looking for something special to make for lunch on Saturday and going out tonight for dinner so not that much for me to cook. And, I'll be watching Fred out of the corner of my eye on some loop while I go about my business catching up on paperwork.

Here's a link to loop if you want to watch him too!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

Talk later, going to go brew some cafecito and have some breakfast and enjoy the view from the deck...busy little squirrels darting about unlike Fred who is moving barely at all out in the big blue ocean.

Besos Bobbi