Danny, Kafka & Freud..

Note: Remember the center is NOT the bright area of convection but that little invisible area that it seems to be reaching out to...

So, this has to be one of the most confusing storms I have ever seen. I mean seriously. And, I have seen a lot. Then again, rarely have I seen the NHC write so honestly in a discussion on not understanding the models. I can only believe they are waiting to see if:

1. Danny reforms under the stronger convection which is far removed from the center..

2. They have to make a decision to continue with models that have been good this year vs what seemingly makes no sense.

3. Change the track based on what?

I would not want to be on the 5 AM Advisory Team at the NHC... this is not an easy one.

Tonight's 11 PM Discussion... a bit that I am showing... showing low confidence in the model forecasts...

"ALL THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN DANNY...BUT IT IS
NOT CLEAR WHY THEY MAKE THE CYCLONE SO STRONG. THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE
NEXT 36-48 HOURS...BUT THEN THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO 40 KT...AND MUCH MORE...ONCE DANNY ACCELERATES TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS MYSTERIOUSLY SHOW
THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING TO 70-75 KT ONCE THE SHEAR INCREASES. "

On one hand, models take it and ram it into New England (still) ... Cape Cod is ground zero in the middle of the model tonight.



This particular model is flavored Rocky Road because I think it's going to be messy if it verifies and messy if it doesn't.

Danny reminds me of the story Metamorphosis, I am not a Kafka fan but something existentialist about this seems an out of body, experience. Do we blindly follow the models, do we have faith in them? Is Danny able to transform or is this all his life is??




By the time this is over ... we could all use a good tropical therapist..

Am sure there is some Freudian Message in this all...

Boston has a funeral planned for Senator Kennedy on Saturday? Do they read the forecast? Or do they have some measure of faith I can't seem to muster?

http://www.boston.com/news/local/breaking_news/2009/08/kennedy_to_be_b.html

Take a raincoat... or two...

Red Sox have a home game on Saturday, Toronto I believe. They might want to play it in Toronto.. or Texas? Well, at least they won't be playing Yankees ..

I'm going to bed. I will wake up and hopefully Danny will have surprised us and read his discussion ... maybe he can explain to us why he looks so bad but he gets so strong later.

I want to go out on a limb and say... he really does not resemble a normal tropical storm and think he is some sort of hybrid and should be treated as such. Winds are strong far from the center, over a large area... big blow ups currently to the NE of his center... just looks to me like a Hybrid but acts Tropical.

Maybe he will change into whatever it is the models see and his life will have more meaning than what it seems right now.

We are talking Saturday Evening in New England. I don't even know what I am making for lunch on Saturday.. its a few days away.

I have heard people say it's dead..I don't think so. Looks healthy to me. Reminds me of that silly cow scene in Me, Myself and Irene... just when you turn your back .. "Mooooooooooooooooooooo"

Good Night Danny... Sweet Metamorphosis Dreams!!

Bobbi

Ps..on another weather note... there are bad fires in a beautiful area outside LA and I lived there and yes, I remember those fires... prayers for everyone affected by them, they can be haunting forever.

And...I love Boston, by the way... always have...