A Storm By Any Other Name is Just As Wet and Wild!

4 people have died in Puerto Rico in deaths attributed to the tropical disturbance that dumped over 20 inches of rain creating flash floods and tropical misery.

http://uservideo.weather.com/video/Torrential-Rain-in-Humacao-Puer

http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSN2251557420080922

And, the rain is going to spread west over Haiti not north into the Atlantic. Not just yet anyway.. it will eventually go north but when? And, how much rain will Haiti get from this no name storm?

The birth or naming of a tropical entity is a long, involved process that takes into account many things. And, just because there is severe weather does not mean it gets a name and yet despite not having a name someone gets severe weather.

The NHC issued a Statement that should help clarify things a little bit:

"SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
445 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2008

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA...
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...IS BECOMING
BETTER DEFINED. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY
WINDS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT... AND THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THEREFORE...THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM BECOMES A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION...IT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH MONDAY. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES."

Often...tropical storms in their formation period have several possible centers. And, the recon plane is sent down there to fly a pattern that has been planned out a day or so before and it flies around in the ocean like a child lost in the forest looking for that elusive center that is seen so easily on satellite imagery yet eludes them like a dove in the moonlight hard to see but you know it's there.

This current system expected to become Kyle eventually has winds of over tropical storm force winds and it has a closed circulation seen on satellite imagery (quikscat) and yet it does not have a name. It happens. In the words of the great William Weathersford,"It is what it is!"

"It" has dumped over 20 inches of rain on Puerto Rico and will dump more on other areas

So, what do we have? An organized area with intense winds and a lot of tropical moisture yet we don't have a name but the system with any other name or without a name would still be dumping tons of rain and have tropical storm force winds.

However... until it is officially named it is like elusive lovers, the mid-level center and the lower level center dancing in the darkness, spinning around like star crossed lovers forbidden to be a real named entity, just dancing in the dark and dumping too much rain on areas that have been dumped on before this season.

Until the NHC and the planes searching around for the true center call home and tell us it has a name it is still an area of very stormy weather.

What is in a name after all?

This season has been like some Shakespearean Comedy. Storms dip SW when they are supposed to go NW. They blow up brightly red down by Jamaica when Jamaica was never in the script and then take off again and end up at the same point in the models where they projected it to be without the side trip to the SW. Models have been fantastic this season at predicting development so like Dolly and Gustav and Ike and Hanna I do think Kyle will form from this mess down here. Well, unless Kyle is up off the coast of Cape Hatteras and this storm is going to hang around until it gets the R name Romeo it needs to be watched as it has already been responsible for 4 deaths and may cause more misery to Hispaniola.

It simply is what it is and a storm by any other name would still remain a storm filled with sound and fury signifying nothing.. but that's another story for another day...

Sweet Tropical Dreams from the home of the Miami Dolphins who beat New England in New England!



(something about Romeo hiding in the bushes looking up at Juliet's window nags at me... better I DON'T think on it!)