Dangerous Gustav Races Across Cuba and Heads for the Gulf Coast

You want a sense for what people are going through all across the part of the Gulf Coast that is under the gun?

Here's a post from a regular poster on www.hurricanecity.com message board. He's evacuating. He is writing one last post before getting out and the reality settles in to all of us what our friends are going through.

http://members.boardhost.com/hurricanecity/msg/1220151759.html

And, this scene is being played out all across the Gulf Coast as people with friends on line and off send out messages they are leaving. In the morning, thousands of people will be texting to family in friends short messages that say things like "leaving now" or "in car packed up, leaving" to let their siblings far away in
Kansas and New York know they are in the car.. leaving. In this world we live in today we no longer call. My kids text me when they are "boarding" and when the "landed" and that is how we stay in touch. On cellphones, on blackberries and sidekicks. A nation of people electronically playing telephone tag with short messages staying in touch silently with just the beep of a ring tone letting you know Sarah or Sharon has sent you a text message.

Notes back and forth on cellphones across America as loved ones pack up and head north away from the coastlines on this one road rarely traveled on a Labor Day Weekend.


"Stay Safe!"
"Call when you get there"
"Drive Safe"
"LoveU"
"LoveU2"


For those not evacuating there are millions of text messages for people buying food, boarding up.

"get more diapers"
"need more wood"
"need more nails"
"more AA batteries"

This is how we live today. This is the drama going on across the Gulf Coast as people try to figure out what they need, how much they need and whether they should pack it in and just make the trip to Aunt Tillie's in Missouri or find a hotel room a hundred miles or so inland or... take the chance that Gustav will veer
left or right and their town will be safe, their home will safe, their world will be there when they get back or Gustav passes safely to the east or west or anyway but their way.

As for Cuba, they have had reported gusts of over 200 mph and you can follow some of the story here:

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/hurricane-coverage-cuba-tv

Works best if you speak or understand Spanish, if not you can look at the pictures and video.

My worries? Gustav has been running East of forecasted track points.

This happens and gets adjusted down the road but any variation from the forecast
points becomes a problem for the forecast later. They have adjusted the track a drop
to the east but just a drop. Generally, the models pull the storm more to the left and yet the storm misses the projected forecast points a drop to the right.

It's not easy to be a forecaster. You carry the weight of the world on your shoulders and in the discussion you are writing. What you say and how you say it conveys to the people reading it what goes on beyond the short advisory written.
TV weathermen, local forecasters, newspaper writers and such read that discussion and check for any nuance or explanation for what is going on.. really going on.

The NHC has been great with Gustav. They called the fast forward motion days ago and it raced fast across Cuba barely losing any steam or intensity. Hot steam, steam heat over land. What a monster! No other way to describe him. Reminds me somehow of Mitch at his height of power. Or Gilbert racing on.

He is going to cross some of the hottest water around when he passes over the Loop current though after that he may hit a patch of cooler water. So, one step up, one down. But, he is so steady right now, moving fast, consistent and aiming for land somewhere from Texas to the Alabama/Florida Coastline as the hurricane watches went up for that entire area. Yes... the middle of the cone shows a specific area, city or spot but do NOT look at that spot... look at the whole cone and remember that cone can move east or west depending on the actual movement of Gustav.

Models can only do so much and the NHC is doing an amazing job of reading the models and translating them and putting together in an excellent forecast trying to warn the people in his path of the dangers of this extremely dangerous hurricane.

Listen to them! Listen to your local NWS and listen your local weather people!
Listen to your government official.

One thing I do ask and remind you is that they have your best interests at hand. If you do not live in an area that needs to be evacuated and you have a house with shutters and in good shape then do not do so. And, if you do then do it now. Do not decide at the last minute to try to get out of Dodge and travel roads that are crowded in deteriorating weather. Make a plan, stick to it. Stay safe. Do not panic.
IF you are evacuating to Alaska.. please take copies of your important papers with you such as birth certificates, important numbers and any MEDICAL info you will need.
And, notify your loved ones.. the older ones who do not text where you will be. Do not forget to make sure Grandma Alice knows where you are as she will be home watching TWC terrified worrying on her little baby grandchild. Even if you are 22 and not a baby.. let people know.

Will see in the morning how Gustav is doing and where he is going. If he has sped up or slowed down and if he has hit Category 4 again.

This is the biggest drama in the world. I mean it. Better than the Olympics and better than political conventions and defintly better than a sitcom. It is life, happening fast and live constantly evolving. A storm like this has more power than an Atomic bomb and it was just dropped on Cuba. News reports are not good and getting worse and will be horrible. Even in Miami far away we will get strong bands of storms that kids out looking for pizza and fun will not be worrying over as they think the storm is far away. Key West and other cities not directly in his path will be affected.

Lastly..the only thing that nags at me is that he crossed the Isle of Youth (Pines) to the right of center.. almost dead on and a bit to the right. Usually, but not always you can tell a lot about GOM Hurricanes by which side of the island they cross. I still think this storm is pulling a drop to the left and I said a drop. By 5am Sunday we will know if it's a wobble or a change in the track. But the forecast has been great til now so.. maybe not.

Keep watching.

As for Hanna.. she is a slow mover and I was told that would be more problematic for Florida than if she pulled it together faster. We will see.

As for me.. I am going to bed. Been a long day here, had two big family parties in 24 hours, my nephew was incredible at his Bar Mitzvah. Read and spoke beautifully. Lots of drama going on not worth telling over and too tired. It's windy, it's wet, you can hear gusts of wind rushing through the palm tree next to the house and rattling in the breeze with a whoosh of wind as squalls pass through. Going to go to bed... listen to the wind, check the weather radio and stare at TWC on mute for a while.

Tomorrow morning we have a very big, fancy Breakfast Brunch sort of Bar Mitzvah Party to go to and get everyone to and the weather should be rancid but a whole lot better than what Cuba saw and what the Gulf Coast will see and better than what we may see later in the week from Hanna.

Everyone stay safe.. drive safe, email, call or text your loved ones and watch Gustav carefully because he is going to be one of the biggest, strongest storms you will remember in your life time and his name will be retired along with names like Mitch, Hugo and Camille. Hopefully, somehow he will make landfall as a weaker storm not a stronger one and play out his fury in the Gulf before hitting land. We can only hope, we can always pray.

Nite... my prayers to all of my friends online and off in the affected areas and to all of you out there reading this..

Besos Bobbi