Is a Tropical Storm Forming in the Epac? Or the Carib?

Could be but the real question is where is it headed as the current forecasted track would have it crossing over Central America and bringing it into our basin as a named storm.

I did not make this up.

Will it be Alma or Arthur? Or both...two, two..two storms in one?

Nope... not that creative today.. been a long day, I'm just posting what I'm reading...

Truth is sometimes stranger than fiction, you know??

So... make up your mind little Tropical Entity without a Name...




Text from those in high places...

"TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAY 28 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES AND LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 7WW HAS BEEN MOVING W AN AN ESTIMATED 12
KT AND THIS MOTION SHOULD MOVE THE WAVE INTO THE EPAC WATERS
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT.

A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DOMINATES THE SW CARIBBEAN
AND THE E PAC ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL CYCLONIC SWIRLS ARE NOTED WITHIN THIS AREA...THE OVERALL
PATTERN SEEMS TO SUGGEST SLIGHT ORGANIZATION CENTERED ON ROUGHLY
09N89W. THIS IS WHERE OUR MARINE PRODUCTS HAVE SUGGESTED A
SURFACE LOW...POSSIBLY A TROPICAL CYCLONE...WOULD DEVELOP. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL
MEANDER IN THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND PERHAPS DRIFT
NE LATER THIS WEEK. THE UPPER PATTERN IS ALSO NOT EXPECTED TO
CHANGE TONIGHT AND EARLY WED BUT THEREAFTER SEVERAL CHANGES ARE
FORECAST. AN UPPER LOW WILL SPIN UP OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
OR CUT OFF FROM AN UPPER TROUGH...AND DRIFT S FRI WHILE AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN REPLACING THE UPPER
TROUGH CURRENTLY DISSECTING THE CARIBBEAN. THIS WOULD ALLOW A
SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA OVER GULF OF
HONDURAS. SHOULD ALSO MENTION THAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SECOND
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND MOVE NW
THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE
MAY ADD THE NEEDED LOW LEVEL VORTICITY TO GET ALL OF THIS
SPINNING. NOTE THAT THE GRADIENT S OF THE E PAC LOW PRESSURE IS
ALREADY SUPPORTING A SW TO W 20 TO 25 KT WIND AND SEAS TO ABOUT
11 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST S OF THE LOW
THROUGH 48 HOURS."

My bigger point here is that a few days ago there was no moisture anywhere in the Carib and today.. it's covered on sat imagery with moisture. Again.. a reminder of how fast things can change in the tropics this time of year.

Might happen.. happens rarely and there is always a lot of discussion. Back in 1997 there was discussion on Andres as seen here:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1997andres.html

Whatever is going on is not exactly clear as the song goes but someone will be right and someone else will be wrong... and possibly everyone on this one :)