Adrian and other thoughts on other women..

Okay. There has been so much discussion in the media on Tropical Storm Adrian in the Pacific Ocean off of the West Coast of Central America that school children all over Florida know every little detail about it..."coming on Sunday" (okay)

The mailman asked me about it. At work everyone is so excited that I must be excited that the season has started. Right. Okay. I think some small child in Alabama's first words tomorrow morning may be "Adrian is coming"

Let's get real.

We are coming off of a devastating Atlantic Hurricane Season last year and we are all a little shell-shocked and maybe have the smallest amount of Post Traumatic Stress Syndrome. Just a bit. Finger on the trigger people are ready run for water.

The EPAC season begins May 15th, not June 1st. This is normal for this time of year. The only thing not normal is like wrong way Corrigan lost on Gilligan's Island she is a little mixed up. It is not unheard of but it is rare.

Her signature looks down right crappy on the water vapor loop and even on IR her intensity has waned a bit. So, lets drop the Cat 5 at Mid-day tomorrow forecasting. I think someone slapped up that model silly by now and it's fallen in line with the others or has been prescrible Prozac. Good to fine tune the models on the EPAC systems before we have to deal with them in our own backyard.

Her main danger is mud slides... and if she hits with 75 mph or 65 mph it is the same issue of concern. Huge amounts of tropical rains falling on unprepared small villages that go sliding down the mountains. Especially in some regions where there has been deforestation and there isn't much to hold things together. Small villages with little they can do but hope it doesn't hit their homes too hard or they will have nothing left. Mitch's damage was from long, sustained tropical rains.. not because he hit so strong.

I was a little out of it the last day or two. I have a lot on my mind and my mind is not really here but in some land of hope and possibilities and being amazed at the wonderous things that could happen and the magical hand of powers beyond nature in this world. Hashem. Possibilities, practicalities...patience.. wishing doesn't make it so but hard not to wish on a star or anything you have handy when in the mood I am in. That is the good part... the hard parts is dealing with ongoing details of a life like most of us do.. and so I did what any red-blooded American girl from the babyboom would do.. Watched an old movie. Cat Ballou. Great movie... really great, best comedy I think ever made... in recent times anyway. And, just got lost in it, did what I had to do.. tried not to obsess on the good or bad. Would be nice if you could just wish upon a star..... maybe I did in my way.

So... back to Adrian... my post, my thoughts and will see how she looks in the morning. Do all good things come to those who wait? I've never been that patient where my emotions are concerned. Intellectually... maybe. So.............on with the show. I know I have been a little out of it for my hurricane friends this week but sometimes (smiling) sometimes there is more to think upon on the East Coast than a Tropical Storm in the EPAC that has to transverse a good part of Central America.

Hurricane, chassidus and wishing upon a star... a song and a prayer..

official post... jay if you are out there ...somewhere traveling around Greece on that lecture tour of yours and if you put into a good hotel on their expense account and you get to pick up your email :) and check the blog that I promised to keep going... haha :P

I'm not telling, it's a secret.. send me a postcard from where ever you are.. love big sis..

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Want to say one thing.. besides everyone here stop and think and look at her for a bit.

She is a beautiful storm to watch (lets be honest at this point at the season we would watch anything) ... but although she has nice form and shape.. she seems weak in a few of her satelite signatures. Sort of like a healthy patient with a bit of a weak pulse tonight and think that is where the TAFB was lower than expected and they went with a more conserative forecast on wind speed ... she has yet to be crowned the winner of the Hurricane Award. And, imagine they will be conservative as this rarely happens and much will be reviewed in post season analysis. IF someone is going to go against climo, with a lack of intensity on some sats they will wait til morning to see how she looks. My reasoning on this.

Sorry guys, she is pretty..all dressed up but does she have staying power? Will see in the morning.

Lastly...she has over 250 miles to go at a current slow speed... that could help her intensify however she is close enough to land to have it possibly inhibit her outflow and what are water temps down there right now?

Her path and point of landfall should say a lot on how well she stays together. Check out Jim's topography map he posted, there is great variation in those mountain tops there.

Sorry, not all that excited .. maybe if Adrian was a guy I might be a little more excited. Thanks Jim..

Bobbi

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP1+shtml/181752.shtml