2 PM Invest 99L at RED 70% Atlantic May Become Fay ... Late September Shows High Increase Near Florida. Coastal Low Cruiser in Late September a Maybe. Watching 9/25 Maybe Something Spins Close In?

Developing quickly it seems.... 

...may get the Fay name.

that's 70% in the 2 day too...

Zoom Earth below....

...who had that on their Bingo Card?

Again I've said this area gets busy in El Nino years.

seems we have a spinner...

...will update later today 

a definite maybe Fay!

***

Modern Art via the NHC

Subtropicals and areas by the Azores..

..in El Nino years always possible. 

Can we use the name Fay there?

or is Fay a Florida storm?

Wondering.

Currently Florida has a lotta rain.

Kids called. Brother called.

Pictures with of flooding....

People in FLL posting on X

Flooding .... ULL nearby

Funneling Rain Storms 

Dirty side of ULL never fun.

But that's not a named storm today.

Just an ULL parked nearby, spinning.

Tho Upper Level Lows can help spin happen tho.

Especially in El Nino years when waves are weak.

Things develop close in ...

..especially with dangling cold fronts over hot water.

So this is the 7 day Rain Forecast.

That's a whole lotta rain.

So keep that in mind while looking at models.

Models that hint at development close in.

Keeping mind predictions for heavy rains there.

Yes it's the GFS but date is 9/30/26
Staying in September today.

How does this happen? Well at first we see something over Cuba tries to close off into a low. It moves up towards Florida keeping it weak. Once back over the Gulfstream which is hot it builds into a closed Low that moves up towards  the OBX area. Not saying landfall is expected here but do think it's possible to have something offshore. I'm saying it's possible and more probable than close in. This same run showed a Low near the islands off Africa and a day or so out poof it was gone. That's probably, in line with the reality of 2026 that shows ever Azore Lows and possible Subtropicals couldn't even get spinning. Close in has more of a chance. That also still goes for the Gulf where old dangling cold fronts linger too long over tropical waters that are crazy hot and basically untapped and that's energy that will (should anything from want to release that pent up energy) be a problem.

In truth there is nothing expected, but in El Nino years watch close in for unexpected things to pop up and I'll add especially late in the season when the water is crazy hot. A strong coldfront is forecast to get down past Tampa and I'm very skeptical of that. A stationary front maybe. A strong cold front? In Miami we don't even wish on cold fronts until late October and if we get lucky they show up in time for Halloween. But who knows, this has been a crazy year and yes I have said "crazy" multiple times for multiple reasons.

Watching the time frame from 9/25 on...

...for something to pop up perhaps.

pop up perhaps

say that 3x 

:)

Have a good weekend!

I'll update Sunday... football Sunday

Sweet Dreams...

... may whatever you dream for come true!

BobbiStorm

Personally I'm dreaming on cooler weather.

But would love "something" off the NC coast...

...to go watch waves and sea foarm

and feel the wind.

Similar to Erin last year maybe.

Time will tell.

Enjoy the song.

My Seattle son moved to Colorado.

They go to concerts at Red Rocks

Won't lie it's stunning and the sky....

..its so wild in Colorado.

Enjoy.

I "need" to go see them soon. 

Later than sooner but who knows.
I stay out here a lot but...

...when I go it's Gypsy like fast!

Since I said "crazy" so many times.

Will play the most beautiful crazy song.

Love this song. Love the movie.

Oldie but won 7 Oscars...

Since you might still be here.

Crazy was written by Willie Nelson and sung in 1961 by Patsy Cline. It played forever and ever and ever on Country Radio and is still playing today. As a kid growing up in an area called "Little Georgia" in Miami every mother had Country Music playing on the radio and as you walked through the backyard you'd hear Patsy Cline singing some song, long after she was gone tragically in a plane crash. If you ever watched the movie you would know that. A lot in that movie resonated with me for various reasons. That movie was made in 1981 twenty years after Willie wrote it for Patsy. It's still a classic for any young Country crooner to sing as it's as relevant today for many as it was in 1961 when Willie wrote it. Think on that a bit. I really was born Country or Southern in the Coastal South to a family that had been there for generations ... and yes there is a difference between the parts of the South and what many think of as "Country" but that's not important here on my Weather Blog ....what IS important is that I do believe one big storm will from...where I can't tell you but I'd sure watch close in around September 25th on .... where it goes no one knows as it has not formed yet. Also ignore any typos please, though I do so love living in the Carolinas I am not in love with allergy season here in the Autumn but.... I do so love watching the leaves turn I just don't care for the weeds!