GFS Up to It's Old Tricks. It's the GFS ... Take it With a Whole Lotta Sea Salt. Will Autumn Solstice See a Tropical System Somewhere in the Atlantic? Old Stationary Trough or CAG? Time Will Tell.

 

I know I've been quiet. Like an annoyed child pretending to hold my breath or my words in this case. Also I was a bit under the weather, nothing serious, seeing as how the weather has not been my friend these days in the Carolinas where promised cold fronts don't show up til two days later and then they are more like cool fronts for a few hours in the early morning. Hot! Hot! Hot! has been the rule most days. But we did get a cool front and it's better than nothing. Models show it staying this way til the end of September or at least the last week or so. Reliable models show it stays warm for quite a while into September. 

I'll add my sulky, moody, stupor was broken yesterday when that model known to be not reliable always........the GFS did it again and has stubbornly insisted on showing something develop down where El Nino is still shutting down the Caribbean then it moves up through the Yucatan Passage and slams into Louisiana near the Sabine River as a Major Hurricane. I really can't see where or how that's gonna happen. I mean does El Nino take a Mini Vacation? I know it's the GFS and we don't really trust it, and yet we look at the GFS and even when we don't run it we see it on social media. Why you ask? Because it is good at showing patterns that help us think twice on things. Not a Category 4 forming but strong rain or a close in tropical storm again could form there in that area and time frame. Patterns do repeat. And reliable models show a weakness where a cold fronts collapses in hot water as cold fronts can only go so far South beore going stationary. 

Listen it woke me up. That and tonight's scheduled football game! I love football and weather, and autumn weather and we are so close. Anyway it's easy to say most people on social media aren't posting on it but suddenly everyone is for some reason posting on the CAG and explaining how it works. Hmnnn.

It's the story of the day...

...and so it should be.

We are moving into CAG season.

Well soon we will be.

Many a landfalling hurricane or strong tropical storm has formed in slow El Nino years. Sometimes a strong tropical wave stays alive in some fashion and once near the Yucatan, near the CAG (Central American Gyre) and that provides some spark of energy. The list is long of storms that did that, though it's a harder trick during such an El Nino as this one. The other chance is something forms at the tail end of a front.

The best way to take this model is to watch the pattern, pay attention to other models and the synoptic patterns responsible for our current and future weather in the short term. Maybe there will be a weak system like Edouard or a stronger one and it'll pull more to the right in the Gulf. It's also possible, and plausible, that something might form off the East Coast of Florida and try and move up the coast towards another early fall front. 

Lastly I want to mention the reality of latent energy and how when it is pent up, at some point the energy breaks like a dam and when it does........if it does it's often strong, powerful. It is in fact a part of the purpose of tropical systems in that they shake up the atmosphere... move tropical air North towards the Poles and at this time of year that usually shakes up the dam up there and allows colder air to move South. This happens often around the solstice and in the old times, before we had models and satellite imagery and the NHC the old timers watched the weather carefully during the solstic times for signs a West Indies Cyclone might show up in Texas or North Carolina or anywhere in between. As this "crazy model" nails that period in time it's worth talking about the CAG and how sometimes in weak, slow seasons one big hurricane forms and creates trouble. Think Sandy, think Wilma.... late season storms to name only two that formed and the seasons changed and cool weather was on the back end. 

So don't eat the Twinkies, pay attention and hope and pray this horribly, hot, never ending summer goes away and we get cooler air and fall leaves and drinking Pumpkin Spice Latte is not an act of faith but because it's a cool, chilly Autumn evening!

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

Ps or whatever weather dream you got