Hurricane Harbor: Dolly's Remnants Want a Do Over! Would Not Count Her Out. The Fake Cold Front Is Dying & Will Dangle Over Hot Water. 2 AOIs in Atlantic. XDolly & Close In The Gulf

Saturday Night update on the tropics as the tropics have low level possibilities tonight, close in that really show more potential than any wave moving Westbound Currently. I spoke on this on Wednedaay and Friday nonstop on X & in the blog as it's always been my real concern; the real deal in that during strong El Nino years it is always where you watch for development. Nothing more concerning than a well developed remnant that looks way better than any remnants I've seen recently.

Round, head down ...quasi wannabe center and rolling, and I mean rolling like its Tina Turner not the country singer we all love and will miss. Okay, maybe she's wearing red high heels in this image but it's not the only image people should be worrying on. Whether she redevelops with her name back again or remains remnants someone is going to get a whole lotta copious amounts of rain falling somewhere. I said this Wednesday and Friday and here we are again staring at a strong looking remnant hauling heavy tropical moisture into a region where she could find a sweet spot. Check back my last few blogs and you will see I always said it was a close in concern and thought she'd rain on VI and PR more than the rest of the islands. Long term concern, less a short term concern. And here we are .......

I do so love Spectrum News maps.

3 squares on Mike's Weather Page.

Is anyone paying attention tonight?

Should this continue....

Going to be some surprised people soon.

Going wide what do we really see?

ignore new wave out there...

We see a fake front. A dying front

And I say that as we are forecast to have 90s in NC

High 90s after it passes through and goes..

flat in the warm waters of the Gulf

and in the Bahamas.

Where there is already lots of convection.

And you know what convection loves more than anything else? It loves more convection and any system with move away from the High and towards the lows that's the way it goes in the tropics. A dangling, dead front across this region is an open invitiation to an all you can drink buffet and I'll add this could be a two for one as something could develop close into the Gulf Coast and down in the Bahamas and the interaction might be even more interesting. These are ALL "ifs" scenarios but this is basic meteorology in an Super El Nino Year as we move closer to September Remember and things in this area can surprise us if we aren't paying attention. So pay attention. I'll name a few below.

Katrina.

Andrew.

1935 Labor Day Storm.

Betsy.

Camille.

Michael.

Each of these storms had their own back story and 1965 when Betsy did odd, strange things intensified quickly over the warm, hot waters East of Miami after she did multiple loops and turned SW on her way to visiting the Keys and dumping copious amounts of rain and some strong winds across the Miami area. Betsy was NOT "gone for good" as the Newspapers had said in their previous headlines. El Nino years often have stange loopers, wrong way storms and storms that reform close in where the environment is more friendly.

Oh look...1965 is in CSU analogs for 2026.

1987 let's look at Arlene.

Old dead front near Miami...

...then did strange things.

Hit Spain. Longtracker.

Couldn't form anywhere but there.

This forgettable storm 1987 storm ...

...pulled together in the Straits

that's so typical.

There's some crazy juju in those waters.

Let's do one more...

Danny 1997

close in development in the Gulf

crossed the USA and reformed

or was renamed upon ocean fall so to speak.

Andrew almost was downgraded.

Bob Sheets wisely waited.

Sniffed the Bermuda Triangle...

... remnants of Atlantis

(who knows, being silly)

turned West (because fake front)

and rapidly intensified.

1935 Labor Day Storm...

offshore almost same spot almost.

rapid intensification

Michael didn't get going til in the Gulf

then went crazy on approach to landfall.

Camille was a wandering wave....

...could not pull it together..

and then close to the Yucatan

(another interesting RI spot)

it found it's groove

the Gulf gave Katrina like support.

Mike says this over and over....

what you see before days before landall

close in is not what you see on Landfall.

Bottom Line:

Be it El Nino or no El Nino tropical systems love the area from the Bahamas to Miami to the North Coast of Cuba. Something about the Old Bahama Passage that has some sort of juju and on the doorstep of Miami or Biloxi or Nassau things can blow up suddenly. Oh I did not mention Jeanne who was not dead also after her adventure to Haiti and found her grove just before you know where..........

then there was the original...Betsy

And lastly TS Dolly never, ever had a strongly developed center that was vertically aligned. Much like Betsy that had two centers competing for the real one, until the real one took over and then she became a hurricane to reckon with both to forecast and to prepare for once she found her destination. Sometimes that's the way systems surivive shear and Saharan Dust...they don't have a one well defined, vertically stacked center to tear apart or to deal a death blow to they just keep bobbling along, doing their thing and when they find a spot with less shear and less SAL they can suddenly breathe, ventilate and vertically align close in over bathtub Hot water.