97L in the Gulf 50/50 Chances. X Dolly Dealing with PR & VI Currently Once Over Open Water ... Might Be Interesting

 

Orange area 97L 

Yellow is X Dolly

The area in the Georgia Bight

(S of NC and North of St Augustine)

That whole area and down to the South 

is an issue...with or without XDolly.

Tho Dolly reforming would create questions.

Where and when she develops.......

..........should she redevelop

is the question.

I would not count her out.

Either way she may get a vote in what happens.

This area is a concern.

Close in and it can create dangers.

Will discuss that later.

  

another view close up

Looks more than 50% to me.

Would be Edouard should it be named!

I want you to look at this and remember...

...I said X Dolly has had 2 competing areas  

both want to be the center.

Also note 97L classic at base of decaying front.

Where is the "center" of X Dolly

when I say "center" obviously wannabe center.

the Dream Center... 

looks like by PR right?

Changing parameters on Earthnull.

Oh look at that......

Until she solves this problem....

she will be X Dolly 

But once up into the Bahamas.

Near Cuba... SW of Miami...
if she finds her true center...

...we could have a problem.

Either way RAIN is in the forecast.

Surprisingly strong in some places.

Going to just type a bit and say honestly what I am seeing and thinking. X Dolly is trying to come back from the dead. That happens in El Nino years oten so it's not a big surprise. The real problem Dolly has is that it still has 2 areas that are competing for the title of center.That is nothing new there as she had that problem with a name, but it is what it is and in a Super El Nino year you play the cards you are dealt. Hopefully the islands are getting some much needed rain.

The issue with X Dolly reforming is that whether she does or doesn't there's potential trouble on the horizon closer in to let's call it the Bermuda Triangle meets the Georgia Bight. Dead fronts always up the ante development wise and so we watch, we wait and we don't ignore possibilities just because it's an El Nino Year. Below normal in numbers and even the ones so far have been on the mediocre side. That does not mean one cannot, will not break out and cause Major trouble. We have seen it before and we will see it again.

Not sure if NHC will post some sort of PTC watch or warning up along the Gulf coast as most models take 97L inland towards Texas and parts of Louisiana as I like to say the Sabine River area. Writing now, will update at 5 if they blink and that would be good as the rain forecast alone could be a big issue there.

I'll also say the 2 PM discussion was good and leaves the door ajar for Dolly to reform possibly down the road. It covers the closer in area. I still feel there is a disconnect on the chances for 97L but hoping people know it's there and are paying attention. 

I'll update should NHC decide a PTC Cone and advisory is worthwhile and important.

I had a good day. Got some things I needed that were on my shopping list. It was warm out but not unbearable and I hope the forecast for 98 and 99 do not verify for later this week. 

Oh and I had a Pumpkin something Cold Brew with foam :) and it was delightful! 

Sweet Autumn Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

2 Days til September