Hurricane Harbor: 2018 was a Busy El Nino. 2013 a Slow Year Not an El Nino. Hurricane Florence Found a Way to Stay Away from El Nino Shutting Down the Carib. Always Stay Prepared!

Just some quick thoughts on weather today and as we move towards Hurricane Season.

First off, Hurricane Season begins on June 1st whether it's a busy season or a quiet season. It's kind of like Football Season. If you are a Miami Dolphin fan it begins on time with a schedule of games and whether they win somehow or lose over and over it's still Football Season. Except when the Fins lose you are upset, rant online or insist you will stop following them or go to the game away and watch the sad, sorry show because you're a die hard Dolphin fan! For Hurricane Researchers and Trackers we watch day by day and if it's slow, quiet it's still Hurricane Season!

2013 Hurricane Season

Hurricane Season always produces named storms. Some years they struggle to get a name, and struggle harder to maintain the name. Take 2013 for example, it produced lots of weak storms that had problems keeping their Mojo going. Ironically, 2013 was not even an El Nino year as there are many factors that can inhibit development besides El Nino. Around storm chasers we do not even whisper the year 2013, but many others were celebrating the calm in the eye of the hurricane season.

Ironically 2018 was as El Nino year! And, yes while the deep SW Carib did stay fairly quiet, Mother Nature found a way to hit the Carolinas by keeping Florence high up in latitude as she crossed the entire Atlantic from Africa where she began as a tropical wave with a plan. I was at some point early on sure she was going to go the distance. No matter what negative conditions she encountered she kept on going, avoiding the Carib ruled by El Nino shear and slammed into the Carolinas. Michael, late in the season, started from a weak area of convection down by the tip of the Yucatan and suddenly there was model discussion and arguing on X and WHAM it slammed into Florida as a Cat 5 punctuation mark to a season that many expected to be quiet.

Check that ACE out.

I am simply saying we are 22 days away from Hurricane Season. Shop when you see specials, hide snacks where no one will find them and prepare as you do every year. Hope and pray the forecasts for a strong El Nino are correct, but forecasts can often be busted and sometimes a storm like Florence will avoid areas hostile in El Nino years and do wild and strange things.