Yellow Circle 20% in 7 Days. Wave Still Over Africa . . . Season NOT Over! But Forecasts Most Likely Off ... Time Will Tell. Is 2025 Similar to 2015?

 

Fernand is dead.

Yellow Circle Off Africa 20% 

7 day.... 

...Wave emerges around Sunday.

I didn't write yesterday. I wasn't holding my breath for a yellow circle. I just had a lot on my plate yesterday, was busy until early afternoon and then I saw the news which upset me a lot. Nothing going on in the tropics yesterday worth talking on.... so I figured there might be a yellow circle this morning as I knew the NHC was taking the wave about to emerge off Africa seriously. I was a little surprised they went with 20% vs 10% however it's logical as some models take the wave and develop it fast and in turn pulls more to the North as strong early waves do unless they were Erin. And if and when it develops and pulls North it moves straight into a wall of Sahran Dust. So yeah it's 20% but I'm waiting to see what really happens. That's a lot of SAL as we move into September, but it is what it is so let's watch. Unless NHC means the one far to the East over Africa that I have watched since before it made it to Africa. Images will be below. 

Ps much of this is based on Euro AI models. GFS shows a smaller, weaker version. Love the way the GFS is suddenly on cool, blase mode.... must be on muscle relaxers or something.

That's a whole bunch of SAL.

People say the Atlantic is dead.

No it's not really dead.

But there's only life down LOW.

See image below.

Lots of life in MDR but low lat.

There's a lead wave in the MDR.

Managed to get lost of convection.

But low cruising towards South America no.

X99L is over by Central America

stayed "alive" and went where models said.

Due West possibly towards EPAC. 

Time will tell. Still amusingly watching it.

About 15 North there's "life"

Many waves rolled off Africa HIGH.

I mentioned this much this Season.

And once past SAL....

...there is much Shear there.

Note wave train is horizontal ...

color below...dry above.

Dotted clouds to N of MDR is SAL.

Only wave I'm curious on is the one to the East.

It's been impressive since it was visible.

Otherwise very "meh" 

Mediocre at best waves.

But there is that one wave.

Note there are actually 2 waves.

1st wave then 2nd. See below.

Sunday EURO.

NHC said wave emerges Sunday off Africa.

www.windy.com above.

Euro AI ensemble below

There it is....

...then possibilities split everywhere.

Not quite "poof" but I'll say poofy...

I'll say this, we are into "Fall" in parts of the Southeast. This is not one rare first front, it's the second cold front that chilled the air enough for me to turn off the AC. There's another one coming soon. We have trees turning in Raleigh...here and there.... yellow and gold leaves. That rarely happens in August, though I have seen it before (maybe 2015) and the nights are cool even when the daytime highs flirt with 80 degrees. A pattern shift is happening. No I don't believe Atlantic Coast is safe from hurricanes, you just need a hurricane to come up from the Caribbean or during that weird Indian Summer we will probably have early this year around the September Equinox. Everything is a month or so ahead of schedule.

Just taking it day by day for the rest of the Hurricane Season. I do believe the forecasts and I do mean forecastS for 2025 are off and we will not be as busy as forecast, though it only takes one as Phil Klotzbach always reminds everyone in the CSU Hurricane Forecasts. A memorable hurricane season is punctuated by the strong African Wave like Donna in 1960, a relatively quiet season but when you say 1960 Hurricane Season you remember Donna that did damages to most of the US coastline from Florida Keys up to Maine.

Not a busy season.

All Donna mostly....

....but "oh Donna!"

2015 Hurricane Season.

2015 punctuated by Joaquin C4 off SE Coast.

A rich area for stormy weather this year too!

Time will tell.

MJO is said to show up.

It was a No Show twice so far in 2025

Models have not been stellar.

Models missing something.

So I ask "what did seasonal forecasts miss?"

Wrote more than needed to today.

Have an awesome day.

Hurricane Season not over.

Remember September.

2nd to 3rd week should be something.

What I'm not sure...

...just my gut feeling.

Sweet Pumpkin Spice Latte Dreams

Or Pecan Cortada...

You do you..... I do me!

I had a Pumpkin Spice Frappe yesterday.

Next will try the Pecan Cortada.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

Song playing on YT currently

Going with it

Such an Oldie Goldie lol.

Lots of girls named Donna 

born late 1960 & 1961

Li'l slow for me....

...wait I'll add another.

Whoah so much better!!!