Erin Exits the Tropical Stage & Goes Extratropical & to Europe. Is Fernand Forming? Invest 90L & Invest 99L Labor Day Weekend Sales Begin Soon... Stock UP on Hurricane Supplies. Remember September is Next... Hurricane History. 1938, Donna & Harvey.

 

Ignore the yellow dot. 0% Subtropical area.

Erin is Erin .........still there!

But forecast to travel to Europe.

Erin is way up there about to begin her European Tour. She will cross the Longitude where she began when she rolled off of Africa. She may be an X Erin by then, but either way that's impressive. Yellow area was a possible Subtropical system more of a possible Azore concern, but hey the NHC tracks them so it was a little yellow dot on the map for maybe 24 hours. The messy conglomeration of convection nearing the Islands is Invest 90L at a surprising 90% "any day now" chance of development. To be fair it will impact the Islands and it's currently in the same area where Erin was before she did her Bahama vacation. IF this is Fernand, it is supposed to go up into the Atlantic...in the wake of Erin. You can see the models below and there's general agreement that this is the path it will take. Name after that is Gabrielle!

Below is it's Earthnull signature.

Looks kind of wavy to me.

But models.......

Further out is Invest 99L

This area that has consistently looked better...

...has a lower chances of forming.

50% in 7 or 40% in 2 days.

Note the wording.

There's foreshadowing put into the discussion.

Could form now .......

...but we are more concerned on down the line.

As I wrote yesterday in the blog....

..should it get into Carib & up into the Gulf

Water temperatures are very high.
Conditions would be super favorable.

I call this a Sleeper Wave..

Harvey was like that so pay attn.

Models track it and are shown below.

Earthnull below.

Consistently tries to shut off.
Was shut off but "loopy"

Kind of pulling it together...

..compared to yesterday below.

Post from X yesterday.

It's down to 1 area now that's closing off.

So that's progress.

Staying low as it goes..

..nice li'l spin!

Even a li'l pink heart there.

So where do we go from here? I'd say shopping. Shopping for Labor Day Weekend coming up soon. Labor Day conjures up visions of hot dogs and hamburgers, the last blast of Summer before we can officially say it's September and bring on Fall!! Labor Day also conjures up images of Hurricane History that were some of our worst hurricanes ever. Way back before they had names, they were simply called The Labor Day Hurricane. The one that always come to mind that was extremely deadly and destructive. The Florida Keys Labor Day Hurricane. 

Labor Day Weekend in Texas was ruined in 2017.

Hurricane Harvey slammed into Texas

After a lackluster run thru the Carib

(even temporarily demoted)

Models came to life ...

..forecast crazy amounts of rain.

The models verified.

So while many are remembering Katrina.

And trust me I will .... 

... I want you to remember Harvey 2017 as well.

So when you look at Invest 99L

Or another similar one to 99L

The kind that stay low and weak and go far... 

..know their finale may not be kind like Erin.

If you didn't read yesterday's blog please do...

Not saying it will do that...

I am saying it COULD do that track.

Front are not our friend when a Cane is in the Gulf.

Last Hurricane to look at is Donna.

Donna was much like Erin it formed early.

it killed people as it was leaving Africa.

However Donna was mean.

Erin was mostly kind.

A reminder we are headed into the heart

...the heart of the Hurricane Season 

And it's a cold cruel heart sometimes.

The set up on the East Coast is such that ...

...something like this could happen.

We have fronts.

As time goes by they deepen some.
It all depends on the orientation of the front.

Where the Hurricane gets..how far West

A front can grab one and run it up the East Coast.

Our current pattern could favor that.

So when you go shopping...

..for Labor Day Weekend.

Buy some supplies for Hurricane Seasons.

And After Labor Day Sales will be good.

Backyard candles go on sale.

Snacks, drinks, chips, crackers...

Lots of things for your Hurricane Kit!

Use this quiet time wisely

And enjoy this current weekend.

But if you haven't.....

.... get yourself Hurricane Ready.

Please.

That's it..

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

I'll update later if NHC hits the button...

...on Invest 90 or Invest 99

You hit the Sales and stock up on supplies!

No I am not that old LOL

I grew up in the South...

..from an old Southern family

In a neighborhood called 
"little Georgia"

I was actually conceived in Atlanta...

This song played always and forever.

Still plays forever!

So leaving it here to remind you

Some hurricanes are cold, cruel....

some slam you with rain

Some flood you ...

Some have winds that tear things apart.

But we can prepare for them..

..and we have the NHC

They warn us way in advance.

That's our secret weapon ;)