Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, January 05, 2023

Thoughts on Yesterday's Storms... and Where Are We Going This Winter? Bit of a Rant on Non Stop Busted Local Forecasts....

Front across Central Florida and the West Coast is under the gun with one storm system after another washing up onto the Pacific Coast. When I lived in LA we called this a "Pineapple Express" as they moved across the Pacific from Hawaii ...tho they don't begin in Hawaii. 

Lined up like planes. Comma clouds we call them.
Think of them like tropical waves....
A few days to clean up and then....
... there's another wave washing up again.
Wearing away at coastal highways.
Flooding, nasty weather.

In the East we have cold fronts.
Nothing dipping down from the Arctic today!

One of the best to follow in Raleigh or NC.

Yesterday we were watching this graphic.
Today we are wearing short sleees and sandals in the South.

Mitch does a good job, if you are into YouTube.
There's a link below to today's video.

Models every few days hint at some wild wintry storm that will deliver snow into Virgnia and the Carolinas and then the models take it back again. Note we are all watching what may happen in real time, as models have been difficult to trust this winter in the way that many models spin up hurricanes out of westbound tropical waves and then then the waves fizzle out never developing. This Winter is reminding me alot of the 2022 Hurricane Season that spun up some early storms than went on hiatus for a month or more. It was a late season what we call "back ended season" and I'm beginning to believe this Winter Season of 2023 will be much like the 2022 Hurricane Season. 

August and most of July were silent.

After some promising tropical waves nothing much happened despite everything the models promised. We have had a few strong bursts, not sustained, of crazy cold weather and then nothing much happened. Yes, we had a day when it was 10 degrees recently but within 6 days our high temperatures in the Carolinas were close to 70 degrees. This is a see saw pattern and often the saw part of the pattern slaps you in the face after trees begin to bud and people begin to put away their winter clothes. I say that from whatever winter experience I've seen in the Carolinas for the last 14 years and when I say Carolinas I mean coastal Virginia and most of Georgia. As always elevation will deliver snow somewhere. 

The other thing I want to mention is that at least in this area I have never seen such a consistently crappy job of forecasting the weather more than a day out. Every day the local weather does a 7 day forecast or an attempt to help you plan out your week on the news networks that is based mostly on NWS discussion that also goes long range and explains what may or  may happen during the week and usually it doesn't happen and the short range forecast is adjusted. Every. Single. Day.

It was supposed to rain for most of the early part of the week, then the end of the week and day by day the rain evaporated into a sunny day as dry weather has been in hold in this region and is refusing to let go. I remember a year here years back that was so frustrtating as we watched "snow" on top of us according to the radar, yet the snow never made it down to the surface. A bit of rain with a bit of sleet was all we got when we were promised a Winter Storm.  I get it the layers of the atmosphere are dry, my question is why aren't the local forecasters taking that into consideration as it's often obvious the forecast will be a fail. 

Tell me the weather today and tomorrow, don't ignore that while telling me how to plan my week when I know it won't verify!

This year it's been continually awful.

The LOCAL weather experts have been fantastic offering a possibility of tornadoes when the official forecast suggested we would only have minimal severe weather. And, yesterday we had a tornado warning out of nowhere AFTER the line passed and was well to our West but our county was in the Tornado Warning. Actually we lost cable twice during the height of the storm and when they came back they were live with the Tornado Warning. 

And this is why I tell all of you over and over during the Hurricane Season, find yourself a good local meteorologist who knows your local area and it's unique weather issues (be they elevation or something else) who are not afraid to say "be on the look out for a stray tornado tomorrow even though it's currently not in the forecast" (meaning discussion from NWS) and pay attention in real time to your weather.

Winter will show up in parts sometime eventually, exactly where or when I can't say but if you want snow go to the mountains, hunker down, stay warm and enjoy it. Otherwise if you live along the coast or in the Piedmont regions of your state you may be waiting until Mid February!

Just my fifty cents... price adjusted for inflation ;)

Besos BobbiStorm
Ps Enjoy the song.... my rant isn't about TWC as I don't watch much this time of year unless a Winter Storm is within the 5 Day and then I obsess constantly, but more to certain local weather sources who keep repeating the NWS long range forecast that barely ever verifies. I get it NC is a hard place to forecast, but each year a pattern sets up. It's kind of like South Florida where you hope a front will pass down through the state and make it past Miami and it gets caught up near Ocala...almost every time. Without a strong Arctic push you just don't get a cold front to Cuba and you don't get snow in the Carolinas.


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