Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Friday, January 27, 2023

In Search of Snow......... 2023 Weather Game. Models Are More Fun in Hurricane Season


It's really all a game when you look more than a week out. Models forecast snow, sleet, rain or nothing and it changes on every single run. Much like during hurricane season but different. Snow storms form in real time and until the Low wraps up, draws in the moisture there's no way of knowing for sure what it will do and add in time of arrival (4 AM cold weather or Noon and weather warmer) and add in layers in the atmosphere so do you get sleet, snow, rain or freezing rain. It gets very complicated. And, how can you be sure where it will go when it hasn't formed and the system that will spawn the possible snow storm is just about to hit the West Coast and you live on the East Coast; California and Carolina have similar letters but different locations and with weather location always matters does elevation.

A strong, vigorous tropical wave leaves Africa and you get a feel for it's potential by the way it operates over it's early travel through the East Atlantic. Does it battle shear stubbornly? Does it stay together in one particulr shape or is it bottom heavy? Does it have a vaguely defined center or is it a total mess? Then you see the patterns in the atmosphere, add in CLIMO (odds in Vegas) and you can see where it will most likely go. When it comes to snow storms... it's anyone's guess until it actually forms over Tennessee or South Caorlina or over Raleigh and then will it be a Miller A storm or a Miller B storm? Or a dud storm that never ever got to meet Mr. Miller ... link below.

It's a busy day for me as I have 2 grandchildren in town and have to navigate the unique eating habits of the two but if I put chocolate in something one will eat it and I'm not making sushi so darn have to figure out what the girl likes. Yeah the boy is the chocoholic...   their father just wants "Mommy food" so nothing intricate as in the old days feeding a lot of kids food was tasty but simple. Sunny and cold, no sight of snow except in some models that seem to want to respect state borders and prefer Virginia to North Carolina. Models are weird the weather is weirder and we won't ever get into politics but just saying.


Have a good weekend as we cruise fast towards Februay... the month of really cold winter weather, chocolates (preferably from Godiva...hint hint) and when roses suddenly go up in price faster than eggs. In today's world if someone makes you a souffle they must really  love you!

As for the inconstant models.... every morning I wake up and wonder if it likes me today and when I go to sleep after a wild 18Z run I think ... will it love me tomorrow?

Note I trust a really good, old fashioned met who knows how to forecast without models (though peeking at them) a week out more than either the EURO or GFS ...once we get closer the HRRR can be good but hey once it's closer most of us can see what's gonna happen better.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Twitter mostly weather and Instagram whatever

Ps  Miller link the weather bible in the Carolinas.


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