Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, February 23, 2022

Listening to Mike Talking........Laughing, Smiling, Nodding.... Do You Really Want Hurricane Predictions NUMBER Wise? Are They Valuable or Just Clickbait?


I was debating on writing a blog today, but as I was listening to Mike talk.... I decided to just go with it and say what's on my mind. First off, he's fun to listen to and I've known Mike so long... well let's put it this way ... I don't want to incriminate myself LOL so suffice it to say he's fun to listen to and extremely educational especially if you feel lost on complicated weather sites that have more options than you are really even aware of... 

People ask me all the time how I get that Windy graphic as their phone takes them to the main page, the default so to speak and while watching Mike navigate these sites they often learn how to do things they did not know previously. How do I KNOW this??? Because they tell most of my closest friends and high school friends and some of my kids watch him especially during the hurricane season. 

People go to they get this above!
But there are filters on the right... "more filters"

When you go to the "more filters" you get a more better understanding of the layers of the atnosphere. More better is a saying Down South... means way more better ;) options and now is the time to learn more about your favorite site online before there is a Category 3 hurricane threatening to go Cat 5 as it takes aim on you as you are on the edge of the 5 Day Cone!

IF you don't want to learn how to navigate the various meteorological websites filled with models, atmospheric pressure grahics and other data to study you can go to Mike's site shown above that tells you everything you need to know. Soon he will switch over to tropical sites and leave winter behind, but for now ice is moving through the country So  some people are still getting winter weather! It also tells you I have an addiction for Sephora and I'll be honest wandering through that store especially mid week during the day when it's semi-empty, the music is playing and I'm taking it all in ... it's a bit of nirvana...  What advertisement is on your screen I wonder? 

So Mike is talking on the topic today of how many hurricanes we may or may not get this year and he went on one of his rants, long verbal rants and I laughed and nodded my head, because he is right and we both hate this game that is much like going to a carnival and trying to guess someone's weight or age.  Mets come up with numbers as if they are in some office pool 15-7-3  or 12-5-2 or if they are overly confident due to the last few busy seasons they go out on a limb and offer 22-9-5! 

Top number is named storms
Middle number is Hurricanes.
Bottom number is MAJOR HURRICANES!

The forces that be at the NHC these days are always ready to upgrade, whereas old timers such as Bob Sheets or May Mayfield were slow to upgrade even when they had incredible satellite imagery of a closed system. Some years you get storms that just manage to crawl across the finish line and get upgraded and remain for a mere 29 hours a minimal Tropical Storm of 40 MPH other years or you get an El Nino inspired slow staring season with one or two early systems in May and then no Hurricane until August such as Andrew in 1992. It's a crap shoot and it also depends on whether a crappy looking system gets upgraded based on good reviews by the models or a mediocre wave gets poor reviews and even when it starts to come together there is low confidence it will wrap and become a hurricane ......................and then you have Florence that lasted for an eternity as it was the little engine that could as it swam across the Atlantic. 

If you like guessing the numbers go for it, but it's more important to me WHERE the hurricanes will go and that's where some such as Jim Williams ( and Rob from really shine in putting out PreSeason maps with possible tracks for the coming year. Obviously I read every CSU report put out and updated frequently, but tossing numbers into the wind as to 15-7-3 is just kind of silly, but if it's your thing.........please share your thoughts and your numbers. 

This time of year I just kind of glide as football is over, hurricane season is 98 days away and while I watch what is going on in the Ukraine/Russia conflict I remember how much I loved studying Geopolitics. Yesterday I turned the news off and watched an old video filmed during the original comflict in the Donbas by my favorite professor Dr. Ralph Clem on YouTube, he's so good at what he does and how he presents the info. His class was a joy and I took every class he taught as well as some Independent Studies on smaller regions not covered in the larger classes.  Paul George the historian is one of the only other people I know who has that sort of mind that's just literally amazing filled with so much knowledge and amazingly they enjoy sharing that knowledge.  Good to remember what you love sometimes and I do love how geography, meteorology and climate all influnece everything but especially politics!

I noticed this girl sitting there in the front row, taking it all in... that was me back when though I was writing fast in colored flairs his serious thoughts on how place, location and opportunity all play a factor in Geopolitics. And, in truth place, location and opportunity ALL play a factor in any given Hurricane Season. When Louisiana is hot as a target and towns are located too close to the coast and near the bayou they are more likely to be negatively impacted than another town in any given year. Yet, when an El Nino rears it's head suddenly the Gulf of Mexico can go more quiet as strong winds across the Caribbean from the Pacific cfreate shear and make it more difficult to get a wild hurricane going. The first time I studied an El Nino event in depth was in Dr. Clem's class as it related to an International Law dispute regarding fishing fleets in South America. But as we impacts or hurricane season as well as our winters if it sticks around.

And, if you are Florida or the Outer Banks sticking out into the water like they have some sort of neon blinking sign on them screaming every season "hit me with your best shot!" they are more likely to get hit be it early in the season or a CV storm in the heart of the season or a tropical storm moving from the SW to the NE out of the Caribbean catching a cold front.

Lastly............remember our growing season in the heartland of the country is fed every year by countless tropical waves that do not develop into hurricanes but wash up onto the beaches along the Gulf of Mexico and their moisture rides up into the Missississippi Valley creating rain for the crops we are so lucky to have in this country that is blessed to be at a temperate latitude unlike places such as Russia that has much of their large expanase of land cloaked in snow a good part of the year ... where we have four generally gentle seasons and a long growing season across a wide area of our heartland... add in crops in the Carolinas and Virginia in fertile regions that only get lost if there is a hurricane.

It's all about weather..........always and geography!
Like music and lyrics.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Twitter mostly weather and Instagram whatever... obviously some make up and food!

Ps.........If you live in the Danger Zone in Hurricane Country... now is a good time to remember 2022 is moving fast and before you blink it will be time to make a list of things to buy, supplies just in case the NHC puts you in the danger zone in their cone!!


Post a Comment

<< Home