Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, January 27, 2022

Winter Storm 2022 vs Hurricane Dorian? Same Logic. You Need a CLOSED CENTER ... DATA to Work With... Models Trying Hard. Too Soon to Tell!


This is today's Earthnull.
Do you see a huge wind maker Winter Storm?

Water Vapor Image above.
Do you see our Winter Storm?

This is the morning visual ...storm?

Every satellite shows various layers in the atmosphere.
Models try to show what will or could happen.
Models run again hours later.
New Model Run.

So let's go back to Hurricane Season when I say over and over that until we have a true defined center of low pressure and Recon goes into the storm to gather data we can not get the best model output. Once we have a true defined center we can know more what is going on and info, data collected around the storm shows us which way it will most likely travel, speed and other variables hard to pin down until that happens.

This was Dorian. We had a storm. We had a center. We had data from that center and the surrounding atmosphere. We had a forecast that it would NOT hit Miami evne though it looked dangerously close.

Raleigh may get some snow. 
How much snow the I-95 Corridor will get I can not say.
How much snow NYC will get I cannot say.
How much snow and when NE will get... can't say.

I will blog this evening on what I think is the most likely outcome for those who are worrying and want information. Again check with your local NWS every 6 hours or so online to see what they say they are the best at forecasting for your specific area.

Be back later,
Gotta run to an appointment.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Check back later for a song :)


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