Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, January 19, 2022

What Do To About Winter Storms... Model Confusion 24 Hours Out? Maybe We Need a Winter Weather Cone for the Track of the Storm. Charlie Brown Questions...

There's our Winter Storm.... close.

Coming together.
Confusing meteorologists.
Model Madness!!

This is the NWS forecast from Raleigh.
Winter Storm Watch..

This could be any city NWS.
Just an example.

So these are my thoughts before I try to go to sleep Wednesday night... less than 24 hours before the first rainy impulse that might drop flurries before the next impulse (wave like) that could drop sleet or snow. 

The problem with these types of Winter Storms in the Carolinas is that they seem to come together over the Carolinas or on approach like a jet coming in for a landing, but can you imagine the Control Tower knows a plane is landing but not if it's a Southwest or a JetBlue coming in for a landing and they will have to decide which runway to use as they see with binoculars which plane it is and then tell the pilots which runway to land on..

It's a complicated set up.

Maybe TWC is right and just name them... (don't crucify me please, follow along) and then put out a "Cone" and add not to look at the center of the track as impacts can happen anywhere inside that track.

Let's look at a graphic forecast by RaleighWx.. Allan Huffman. One thing I like is that he doesn't change it every four to six hours when new models come out, though he leaves the right to change it a bit if he desires. 

My problem is there is too much changing and tweaking the forecast for three or four nights before the storm even comes together and is on our doorstep. Sometimes the 5 PM Weather update is different from the 11 PM Weather Update! Yes, some people in these parts watch the weather on the News, crazy I know...

Twitter is filled with updated graphics every time a model comes out showing SLEET.........   or MORE SNOW...........NO NOW MORE ICE! 

The devil is in the details but there are too many details thrown out and I don't mean just on Twitter where we love to shoot the tropical or frigid breeze... but on some on air weather outlets. People get confused. 

Is it?
Snow first, then rain, then snow again?
Oh wait, rain (no brining the roads) then snow, maybe sleet?
Snow stronger now to the NW or Raleigh and then six hours later "snow stronger to the SE of Raleigh"

It reminds me of newsboys years ago who would run up and down the street trying to hawk the newspaper with headlines that grab our attentions.  Old school version of Click Bait. 

Just STOP!

Put out a "Cone" like Graphic... in this "cone" a winter storm will traverse your neck of the woods and you will get "winter" weather that could be snow, ice, sleet or freezing rain or just crappy cold rain and the jokes on you! But it will be very cold, with temperatures in the teens! Expect Winter Weather.

I moved to Raleigh and began watching Wes who is very logical and smooth. He said tonight what I was thinking and that is.....treat it like you would a Tropical System... the track could change a little bit this way or that but prepare and know it's there and it's coming out way. My take on his exact words. I had just told a friend the same thing.

Weather is fluid and it changes easily especially in a region with the slightest change in elevation. Raleigh has no snow on the ground, zero... nada and just up the road in HillsboroughN.C there are roads with snow on them still from the last storm. The elevation is minimal but it makes a big difference in the result from the winter storm and yet the last winter storm went over our whole general area. 

As silly as the names are... (sorry TWC) the idea of a product that is easily understood might help people better understand it all. 

Or just assume there is nothing happening, but since you stocked your house for the last storm and you know if you can't get to the store you already have canned food, a hand operated canned opener and lots of bread and eggs. 

STOP  REISSUING UPDATES ON MODELS to the general public because by the time they fall asleep and wake up the models can change again. It's confusing.  I do get it but the general public does not and that's why I had numerous messages on my phone asking me the same thing "so what's going to happen? Is _____ right? I saw the other channel didn't say the same thing?" "We having sleet or snow because I heard......."   We need a solid, clear way to give the message the important message without totally confusing them.

This is the Storm here.......
This is the zone of concern for the Winter Storm! 
Make sure you are prepared to receive winter weather and act accordingly when they issue a Winter Storm Warning. You will get "winter weather" of some kind, pay attention for updates as they happen! Stay safe and try to stay off the roads.

Models are forecasts, like illusions of control where we try to grasp the future in the magical crystal ball. 

Don't make everyone feel like Charlie Brown! Nuff Said.  But like Charlie Brown trying forever to fly his kite.... every weather person everywhere wants to promise someone they know exactly what is happening until the next model run. People are confused ... how we convey the message is important, consistency is better than trying to fine tune something this far out and have the forecast silp through our fingers or get yanked away.

Sweet Snowy or Tropical Dreams, 
Which ever you prefer!

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Ps ... I ran away for the day with my husband to Greenville, NC the home of East Carolina State. He had some appointments with clients and he knows I've been curious about what it's like there. Nope I never was there and it was interesting to see and to get away. I bought a Purple Notebook with a pirate on it! I had coffee at Blackbeards Coffee and I tried hard not to stare at models or discussion all day. Good coffee, incredible coffee and a nice hummingbird muffin! I watched the sunset. It was a nice day. They are very excited about getting winter weather, I sure hope they get some.

I wonder if Charlie Brown grew up to be a meteorologist???


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