Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, November 05, 2020

UPDATED 7 PM - The Mysterious Storm About to Form From ETA - Tropical or Subtropical? A Messy Mess for Florida & Cuba. (and maybe Theta coming too down the road)

This is a good graphic that explains the problem.
Impacts may be far outside the cone with ETA.
Currently it hasn't reformed.
Remember that.

Excellent discussion from NHC.
Read for yourself.
A snippet is below.

Note it is not forecast to be a hurricane.

The Cone is below.

Again it's misleading.
As it's forecast to wander back and forth.
November storms can be wanderers.

I kept it fuzzy on purpose.
I don't like remembering that one......

...Miami has had pouring, freakish rain this week.
One storm after another nailing it.
"like a hurricane" is the phrase my kids use often.
That's from NOVEMBER rain...
... not exactly the rainy season.
So ETA could amp up the rainy misery.

Stay tuned for any changes.
Meanwhile it's still hard to find.
Looks like one big trof to me right now.

I made a video earlier.
Enjoy and have a nice evening.
Stay well!

Keep reading if you haven't...
..from earlier today.
Nothing much changed so please read.

* * *

So let's start with what is there now.
Not much... a tropical depression over Honduras.
Models show a storm of some kind forming.
Moving North than Zig Zagging around.
Zig Zag is Mike's phrase.
It's a good way of explaining this...

It's really the "pattern" that will produce something.
But what is that "SOMETHING?"
That really is the question.
Major wind problems and rain.
A hurricane?
Maybe not but hurricane impacts possible.
Tropical Storm or Subtropical?

This could be a morphing sort of storm.
And a storm over a wide area impacts many people.
Oh and the models are off on timing.

Check out that RAIN for Saturday.
While it's trying to form still.
Then below you have the storm it's been forecasting.
For weeks it seems...

Tropical Storm looking.........
...crosses Cuba up through Florida 
Below is MONDAY

Then Tuesday watch this .....

If that isn't confusing.
This is official NOAA forecast.
NHC puts out a Cone.
But the progression here helps you understand..
...why no one is sure what will exactly happen.

Wednesday...the week goes on..
(models disagree on timing so just in general)
Now it's back to one closed storm!
Oh and a cold front coming down.
A High Pressure moving in...

Now it's attracted to the front.
High to the East is strong.
High to North strong.
Where does it go?

So hopefully that explains the cone.
Over land, emerges over water.
Tries to form a neat TS.
Then something goes wrong..
Does it end up being a huge Subtropical?
NHC doesn't seem to like that label this year.
So they probably keep it a TS
but it will quack like a Subtropical.

Weather will be removed from the system displaced across a wide part of Florida, after probably hitting Cuba with a Tropical Storm and how strong the front is and/or shear is will make all the difference. So it's going to be a long November whether you are watching the weather or the election; apparently what happens in Nevada stays in Nevada.....   What happens in the Caribbean may end up everywhere across a wide area with rain, flooding and strong wind impacts of an unknown intensity!
The 5 Day forecast for RAIN says it all so South Florida may avoid a landfall but it won't avoid more rain and flooding and wind impacts. 

It's like decoding a mystery here.
Or trying to count votes and declare an election?
So 2020 right?

I'll update later today if and when things change.
Or become more clear.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Ps As for Miami... everyone has a cousin there.
But that goes for most of Florida... right?



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