Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Friday, November 06, 2020

4 PM Friday -----Florida Playing Chicken with ETA - Cuba Gets It - THEN WHAT? Prepare In Case Because It Will Evolve in Real Time.


This is a very difficult problem to explain.
This huge mass of convection... moving up towards South Florida.
Sunday Night thru Monday Night.

This grid from the NRL is good.
Is your city in it?
Any area in the shaded area could have WIND impact.

If you are inside the red circles you will have wind impacts.
Unless something big changes.

Isn't "change" the way of the world in 2020?

Models are messy. Short term and long term.

Understand this is fluid and will change in real time so what it is today (convection/rain) is not necessarily what it may be on Saturday evening or Sunday morning.  Timing is off on models as is strength ... an out of control 18 wheeler on the freeway is not something you want to be around in a convertible sports car in a wind storm. Miami and the Florida Keys need to watch this very very carefully and know your luck may hold but it may run out.  The Florida Keys... then the West coast as it catches a ride North all the way to maybe the Carolinas as more frontal rain infused with tropical rain and that's been the signature of 2020 so far. Also intensifying on landfall is a signature of 2020.

I know the election is exciting and as the country seems divided down the middle almost 50/50 every one is obsessing about Nevada and Georgia but in reality you should be worrying more on how you would secure property and deal with flooding in an area that is filled to the brim with rain and has been flooding during afternoon thunderstorms. In South Florida this is a messy situation and best case it's just heavy rain and flooding and worst case it's strong tropical storm impacts and in South Florida across a wide area vs a small narrow area where an eye is that can cause things to go flying in the wind and power outages. 

Then we go up the state IF it gets there and as it merges with a trof it ups the ante for tornadoes, and yes I mean small weak ones not F5 tornadoes but if it rips a tree out of the ground onto your home it's a big tornado. Happens often late in the season with storms merging with fronts.

My point.... 
It's playing chicken with it if you ignore it. So do not ignore it. Watch the election, watch football games but pay attention because Hurricane Season is NOT over. Oh and there's an odd huge yellow circle with 20% out in the Atlantic besides ETA.

This list of wind speeds was put online by a friend.

Irene was a minimal messy tropical system..
...that took it's own path and out performed.
In a somewhat similar set up.
Huge damage and a big mess.
Messier as people went to work...
...and couldn't get home due to flooding.

Miami people were taken by surprise.......
as in "whoah the water is rising and wind blowing"
A mother and her son and friend died.
Walking their dog that probably died too...
..into a puddle with an electrical wire down.

So when you ask what can a small storm do?
People can die. 
Even in Covid times and during the election.

November tropical systems are a pain to forecast.
And they can be a pain to deal with as well.

So pay attention to all your local sources.
And know it can change in real time.

Thanks.. I'll update Saturday evening.

Again just because it looks crappy today.
Does not mean it will on Sunday night or Monday.

Stay alert and have a good weekend!

* * * 

Using the "cone" from Zoom Earth.
Because it shows you whole the picture better.
There's a wealth of moisture down there.
IF it wraps up into one neat ball with a core.
Then we can have real trouble.
But if it stays wide and messy there's trouble.

We evaluate things by different methods.
All show something different.
It's not easy to make a forecast always.
It was obviously when I woke up...'s game on.
But is it a game of chicken?

Being honest there are so many problems with the forecast for ETA and until recon goes in and we get a better sampling of the environment and how it reacts back fully over water before slamming into Cuba and then there is the "which part of Cuba" as some areas have higher mountains than other areas.  Just so many questions and while GFS and EURO (to name two) both agree and see ETA there is a wide difference in intensity and forward speed.  That leaves South Florida (MIAMI area) in a place right now where they are all obsessing over the election results regardless of candidate of choice and less concerned with the tropics living with an illusion that they are protected and everything magically moves away from South Florida and goes somewhere else. Gee... I really hope and pray that happens this time or more so it just doesn't consolidate and becomes a big, huge messy subtropical like storm but even that amps up rain on an already flooded landscape due to nonstop rain over the last few days and more rain on the way before Eta's arrival if indeed it makes landfall near Miami vs cruising through the Keys and trying to put into port in Key West like an unwanted cruise ship. Then could it move up the state or try and hit Tampa as late season storms do or does it just wander up along the various coastlines of Florida on it's way North hooking up with a front?

So many questions and with this year's storm history of intensifying in intensity of activity heading into landfall this is not a good time to play chicken with a developing hurricane though NO one really is saying hurricane but if it's a wide, huge slow moving subtropical with tons of nonstop wind, gusts and squalls... add in tornadoes maybe ... you have hurricane impacts from a messy subtropical. 

That's a problem.

That's the GFS
Kind of a bullseye over South Florida.
But note how far out the weather goes.
Not a small compact storm.
Naples getting slammed.
Daytona getting slammed.
So it's not just about Miami.
Even tho that nails it.

The EURO shows a coastal mess.
On the same day as above.

All from

Note if you run that you'll see.
Both take it West through the Keys and SFL
Then it ends up either deep in the GOM or near Tampa.

Again it's only just developing.
Models are not reliable.
So what do you do?
Follow the NHC......
...but know the 5 day is deceptive.

Miami NWS shows the reality of this puzzle.

Ain't no sunshine when ETA is nearby.
Will be a long time before it's gone.
If the forecast verifies.

My advice.
Follow the NWS Miami.
Follow the NWS Key West
Check back later for updates.

As they say's developing in real time.
But it may end up being a game of chicken.

So pay attention to the tropics not just the election.
Think global but act local.. ya know?

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Let's look at some models. NAM below is good for short term and this shows a fast developing  mess in the 3 day time frame not the long range time frame other models show and that concerns me.


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