Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, January 27, 2015

Bobbi Storm on Models, Life and the Difference between Men and Women..

latest_wv_loop.gif (535×440)

Another view of "Juno" departing..

There's so much I could say about this snow storm that was forecast the majority of the A Team Weather Models to be one of those storms of a century and yet... it was just another New England Snow Storm. New England, predictably with or without the models, is getting a big snow storm. New York City was predictably on the edge of it and barely in it. The further west you go on Long Island the deeper the snow...

This is a typical pattern for something called:  WINTER

As I said days ago it would be just as easy to see "JUNO" (rolling eyes on naming a winter storm Juno..or even naming a winter storm......) going right with a track much like Hurricane Arthur.

Truth is I thought it would do exactly what it did and go right... but that was my gut based on weather knowledge learned from great meteorologists and a feel for the water vapor loop. I couldn't see how it could hook in that much with so much energy pulling to the right away from the storm. Eastern Long Island into Cape Cod was pretty obvious if you just judged it in real time by the satellites not the models.

As for whole model discussion the updated GFS model performed pretty well all in all and that's good. They have tried hard to upgrade that model and whatever tweaking they did may be working. The new GFS argued that the EURO was too much too soon too west...

People complain about the discussion on the models. It's human nature. Okay, maybe it's male human nature as I have yet to see women doing a shoot out between Estee Lauder vs Elizabeth Arden.

I'll be honest it's a guy thing I think. Ever have children, babysit children or teach pre-school. Little boys like to show who can ... project faster longer.  Girls stand there looking confused while boys giggle while teachers run to the little show off boys who are doing a ... little boy version of a spitting contest. OH BAMN... another thing boys do that girls rarely do. The teachers put the little show offs in their perspective time outs and one smiles like he won the Olympics.. obviously the winner.

Girls compete, but in different sneaky ways... less obvious.

So... I think it's just normal as most weather people are men (something that is changing) that they will compare their favorite ... model.

The EURO has been the best for a while, the favorite kid on the block or in this case the globe. It's great at predicting long range the development of weather systems. This works wonderful in tropical meteorology as hurricanes sometimes form from distant, weak tropical waves on the other side of the world. The EURO is the best TOOL we have had in predicting when one weak wave will go further than all the others, wrap and develop into a formidable tropical cyclone. American snow storms that form in real time off the Outer Banks and travel in less than one day to Long Island are a hard weather system to predict that far out.  We can see the pattern and the possibilities but unless it hooks up just right with the tropical moisture and depending on where the jet is at any given moment can mean the difference between New York City getting slammed or predictably being on the edge of a snow storm that slips away wide right towards Nantucket. Connecticut always wins the snow lotto in this case... as does Boston. Maine... well it's ... Maine for a reason.

It's really all about the money honey and until NOAA gets the money it needs to upgrade it's models, research to refine forecasting we will lag behind the other models sadly.  We do make up for what we lack with incredible forecasters. But, it today's world of every model and satellite image being available to every kid in middle school who can write great discussion in 140 characters or a 7 second Vine Video who can second guess the experts cause... he or she saw the EURO model predict the end of the world.  

Bottom Line: No forecaster wants to go against the EURO and discount it. Some imply and suggest and favor the possibility that the GFS or NAM is doing a good job, but they don't want to tell the Emperor he's not wearing any clothes....

The Euro is a long term tool that works really well for hurricane forecasters to see which wave will form into a viable hurricane. It sees patterns with 4 D X-ray vision that is often clearer and better defined than the GFS. But, that will eventually change. Once upon a time Bryan Norcross argued he didn't trust the prediction that Hurricane Andrew would miss the trof based on the bright, shiny new Aviation Model.  No one uses that model these days for any real forecasting problem...

The one constant in life is change.

One day we will look back at the Euro and GFS and laugh...

The upgraded GFS really just worked out a few of it's many kinks. Only time will tell.

As I said yesterday there are weather models for every taste and type of forecaster as there are Kardashian siblings and half siblings to go around. Why do I talk on them? I'm from Miami, lived on South Beach and have brunette bombshell daughters with all the curves, brains and wit of anyone on TV doing their thing. Going to the store with them together is sort of scary... people in line watch especially men who are supposed to be watching their own small children in strollers. I want to say "hey, yeah they are cute... but your kid is drooling . . ." but men are men and oh don't most of us women love that men are men. Well, I do... again women are sneaky while men are comparing their.. weather models ;)

Many people watch the Kardashians and mostly women. I guess they are sneakily trying to watch and learn.......and I keep trying to understand why other than the obvious. Why did some boys like Veronica and why did others like Betty? Comparing and contrasting is the way of the world for both men and women...

So let's say the new upgraded GFS might just be Kylie Kardashdian ... taking some of her sister's talents and refining it to her own style.

No not going to post a pic of my girls as they'd be annoyed and we don't do that... 

So, I'll post of pic of my granddaughter Bella... who asks her Mommy to put what she calls "Bubby's perfume" on her pony tail before leaving for school so it will smell good.  Smart, savvy girls start out young and yet there are no shoot outs for "Love Secret" VS "Pure Seduction"  you know why? We know they BOTH work ;)  Bella lives in a world where she can be whatever she wants.. even a meteorologist. Her father could have been one, he knows his stuff but he also knows it doesn't pay well. So... he went into computer engineering.  We need to pay our meteorologists more money and we need more money put into computer modeling for weather forecasting. If we did there would be more women meteorologists who are studying medicine, law and other jobs that pay more money honey... THAT is the BOTTOM LINE!

As for the Mayor shutting down NYC to be safe rather than sorry?

No problem with that.. because that's the way we do it for hurricanes.

When every weather model shows a big hit on a busy metropolitan area... be it snow or a hurricane.. 

You err on the side of public safety and are better safe than sorry.

That said.. I don't like Pure Seduction since they took the plum out so my perfume of choice is now:

Besos Bobbi

Ps... I'm going shopping...taking a break from the TWC ;) and CNN and JUNO>...

(Why would anyone name a winter storm Juno rather than Janus?" 



Post a Comment

<< Home