Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Friday, August 29, 2008

Gustav, Hanna and Possibly Ike!

Well Hanna began to move faster but Gustav is still dragging his feet down in Jamaica land.

That is very, very, very bad. A real Cat 3 very bad. Oh my goodness, maybe a Cat 4 bad!

Seriously, the last thing we need in the Tropical Basin is a slow moving, hurricane moving over very, very, very hot water in an intensification mode.

When I said I thought Gustav would be a Cat 3 Hurricane easily it was because I thought he would be here now however.. I thought he would go w..WNW to get here. I didn't really think that trip to Haiti was going to happen but it did and either way he is still where we thought he would be and moving way too slow over the warmest water in the Tropical Basin.

Where will he go from here? Don't know. I would go with the NHC track obviously as it has been consistent and cautious. However it is a really a very s l o w l y evolving situation with a low over Ohio and a building Bermuda Ridge that has not built in yet and a weak mid-level ridge over Florida and well am sure there is a storm near Alaska and Minnesota that could probably affect this as well. But, this has been a pretty consistent cone give or take 250 miles at the furthest part of the cone. And, it is in line with climo as well as most hurricanes sitting there usually go where the cone shows.. give or take maybe 300 miles I'd say.

There is one more problem here and that is that IF and when it become a Major Hurricane this storm will have a built in high aloft that I think will be bigger and more important than the low in Ohio and the mid level ridge in Florida. Sometimes they just enhance forward motion and keep going in the direction they want to move and ignore subtle steering currents that would affect smaller storms. Other times, they stop, stall and spin. So.. it's far from over especially if it becomes this Category 3 storm over the waters that gave you most of the big scary majors.

It IS a hurricane by now and cannot imagine the NHC won't upgrade this at 11.

Why? Structure, spin. It wound up amazing. I sat here in bad with my lap top and my very young grandson watching the storm. Oddly, it seems I can yell at my kids to GET OUT but it's hard to yell at a visiting 4 year old :( So we showed him how storms spin and get redder and bigger. Then I showed him that little blue area in the middle of the red,

I said, "see that!"
And he of course said "What is it?"
I said, "It's an eye!"
And he laughed and said "why is it an eye" and....
I said, "because he needs to see where he is going!"
He laughed.
He obviously knows more about weather to believe that one. :)

He asked, "where is it going?" (the 65 Gazillion Dollar Question)
And, I said, "hopefully NOT here!"

There you go .. all you need to know about Gustav this morning.

He is going to be bad and he is going to move up into the Gulf and people need to get ready. They don't need to panic. This is not a surprise 1935 Labor Day Hurricane it is a storm that can and should be prepared for. It is not an end of the world scenario or Doomsday Hurricane. It is not Katrina 2. It is a hurricane people should take seriously and prepare for and if you don't get it... hold on to those supplies because there are a lot more out there where this one came from!

So.. no panic!

Rule #1

Make a plan!

Make a back up plan! the storm. Watch your local weather people and listen to what the NHC says and enjoy life while you are watching.

And I mean this... my mother is friggin' freakin' out right now over Hanna and driving my brother Ronnie crazy who is in the middle of getting ready for his son's Bar Mitzvah this weekend. Hanna is NOT coming to Miami tomorrow and will not be here for the Bar Mitzvah. My brother has a few of my married kids at his house and/or staying next door at the neighhor's empty house as they are out of town. My son comes in from Iowa later today with his wife and baby who are going to stay at my brothers. And in the middle of this my little 90 pound, perfectly dressed Southern Belle Jewish Mother wants to come over with all her personal belongings and hunker down in his living room to stay safe from Hanna because she is watching the Miami Weather news who are apparently hyping Hanna as much as Gulf of Mexico Stations are hyping Gustav. And, for someone 90 pounds and looking like a model she can be like one big Category 3 pain in the neck for my brother who wants me to explain to her that HANNA IS NOT COMING TOMORROW! Did I mention she wears a hearing aid on occasion when it matches her outfit. I think what they said on the news is that watches and warnings may be posted for Hanna on Monday... and why she needs to hunker down for THREE days before it hits is beyond me. Especially at his house which is crazier than my house right now.

Of course I am writing this locked in the bathroom on a laptop as in the last 5 minutes I have been asked for:

directions to the post office
what channel is FOX (my son here is republican)
what do I think of the Gov of Alaska?
what the Governor of Minnesota?
now they want to know where they can rent a boat
what words would you put into a google search for boat
could I show them on google where the post office is

oh and someone saw on a TV at Saras Pizza that Hanna is coming on Monday


Hanna is going to most likely loop around much like Betsy did and will possibly move over Miami or WPB or the Keys sometime early next week.. mid-week depending on the steering currents which are as said. WEAK

And...not make y'all crazy and to hype a storm that hasn't even formed but in a funnier than anything anyone could make up Ike is probably going to threaten some American City during the week of the Republican Convention!

Ike may be forming just west of Africa... maybe, not sure but it's one strong invest and quikscat found a closed circulation.

So..that's it from Miami Land.. I'm going to brunch with my boyfriend and his father and then am going to enjoy the beauty of Miami on my day off and try not to think on how next Tuesday we could be hunkering down for a storm.

Have I ever mentioned I have always loved Betsy. Great storm. Bad storm but one caught up in weak steering currents and she moved SW and came back and well I have to go now.

No panic!
Live in the NOT lose the next 48 hours of your life in sheer panic. Enjoy the sunshine, the strawberries, the cherries. Go to the beach! Go to a movie. Make lists, buy some supplies.. if not for Gustav or Hanna... you may need them for Ike!

Besos Bobbi

Ps.. if you have Elisheva's number..someone needs that too!


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