Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, August 27, 2008

The Future of Gustav and What is NOT Gustav & More Tropical Systems Forming..

Please note when you look at this picture that the area of convection that looks bright, round and red is NOT Gustav. The area that is to it's NE where you can vaguely see a twist in the clouds is the center (give or take) of Gustav.

We have a real problem gang of faithful readers. The Mayor of New Orleans is explaining how to evacuate his city and non-essential personal are being taken off of Oil Rigs in the Gulf NOW and other cities are going into hyper warp speed hype mode and we barely have a Tropical Storm. If the NHC doesn't downgrade this to depression status at 11 it will be a pity call on one level and a need to follow the models that all have this system intensifying in a day or so and causing a problem in the Gulf down the road or down the cone which ever comes first.

Listen.. I thought it would become a Major several days ago when it wasn't even named. But, that was also based on him taking a path further to the West between Jamaica and Cuba where water temperatures are extremely hot and shear looked to be low. It's not there now it's here now or somewhere round here... between Cuba and Haiti and it should be re-intensifying as a good part of it is over land.

Next.. I don't believe this storm fell apart solely because of Haiti. I know Joe does (Bastardi) as he can wax on poetically about the science of meteorology he learned from his father and stories of how Haiti killed storms but it also suffered from steering currents that collapsed and left it stranded down there over the mountains of Haiti and a fierce ULL to it's NE that pushed the high down over it trapping it and tearing at it's very structure.

That was then and this is now.

Throw out the models and throw out the cone for a day or so is what I ask and deal with what is.

In the lingo of the day, the saying of the year.. It is what it is.. and Gustav tonight isn't much.

Deal with it. Embrace it. Accept it.

Tomorrow it may find a way to pull itself together and ramp back up and maybe Gustav will live up to it's expectations but tonight it's not.

You can't make something into what it isn't. And, it isn't a major Cane nor is it a minor Cane and it is a Tropical Storm by the hair on it's chinny chin chin.

It is one massive ball of convection left that was part of a beautiful band that swung around from it's SW side.

BUT..if you remember what I said the other day I said that there was something not quite right about Gustav. I didn't like the push me, pull me look to it and it always had this double barreled area of convection. I said that it could turn into a beautiful long tail like band. And, it did... for a day or so but we are back to the mess that it was when a few of the models refused to develop it 24 hours prior to it being upgraded to Gustav.

If you believe in models you have to also believe it's possible they knew something we didn't.

So.......not saying Gustav may not "threaten the entire Gulf" as just said on TWC's commercial but tonight it is threatening to die an ugly death in the Caribbean. And, am afraid it might be impossible to even find it's remains to bury it.

As a weak system, a small weak system it's best bet tonight it so head west, even south of west towards the area where it's tail is convecting quite nicely. Where the water is warm and the shear is light and he can get his groove back. But unlike Fay.. Gustav doesn't do land well so I doubt he will do Cuba well. Seriously, as a weak system it would and should go west under Cuba. IF it does and if it gets its sea legs again it can and probably will blow up south of Cuba when it's swimming in very hot water. But, that's down the road a good day away.

So, let's put Gustav on the shelf and take a look around the basin.

What was Fay is up in the Carolinas wreaking flooding rains.

We have an area of convection previously associated with Fay blowing up near Jamaica.

We have an area further to the right that is so close to Depression status tonight I am amazed that it is getting so little attention. This is a real sleeper system that hung out there for days and didn't give up and has really blown up today showing subtle signs of a low level center.

Further to the right (east..) we see a beautiful wave that came off of Africa and has a massive circulation.

And, they are lined up like planes coming in for a landing in Miami on a Friday night filled with tourists planning on partying on South Beach. All across the board just south of 20 spaced nicely, far enough apart so that they can all develop if they want.

The Canadian model that is often made fun of for over developing hurricanes is having a field day with this set up yet.. all we can do is sit and try to figure where Gustav will go once it ramps up to a Category 5 and devours Galveston.

This is the moment when you all have to stop, breathe, deal with what is and keep watching Gustav to see whether he can have a second coming and redevelop back into a strong Tropical Storm or a Category 1 Hurricane.

But again... if the timing is off then the forecast is off and again if the models don't see a stand still stall for almost 24 hours then there is something wrong with the models. It's like that old adage, if someone admits to part of a lie then you have to accept that he is a liar and there is more you don't know.

So... not sure what the future of Gustav is... I respect the NHC immensely and if they think it has a chance to do it .. I am sure it has a chance to do it.

But, think it's getting to be that time of year when we need to look around the basin and see what's out there and not be so small minded and look at the tropics with blinders on.

Keep watching, don't let your guard down but don't ignore what else is out there because we are going into September next week. As Cantore said tonight, in 24 to 36 hours this can be a whole different system. I agree, it can. But it is also possible it can't and it is what it is.. only time will tell....

September Remember and as we do remember know there is a new wave about to come off of Africa that looks to have a low attached possibly.

Besos Bobbi, Sweet Dreams.. got all my daughters in Miami tonight ;)
We rock by the way... oh yeah!


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