Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Friday, October 21, 2005

11AM Discussion explained... translated

Great uncertainty with the forecast. Please note all "iffy" words are in red letters.

Mind you I happen to think this is a GREAT discussion of what is happening. Well done, honest and informative. It just shows how uncertain they are of the exact tract of Wilma.. both on intensity, timing and actual landfall.

That being said.. DUH... everyone in the cone or just in South Florida should be watching this storm carefully without the Hurricane Center having to spell it out for them. And, I may add Central Florida because you never ever know for sure how strong a front is in October til it chills your soul at 4AM.

My opinon? Bobbi's prediction?

Wilma will not stall but she will move steadily if slowly north and then make a quick turn to the east.. NNE.. NE and maybe even possibly ENE as the high to her east weakens, the one to her west strengthens and the front digs down and grabs her and she goes in the direction of the lowest pressure... across the Southern part of the State of Florida.

You want exact perfection? Work for a bank..they demand it. Become an accountant. This is science and it is an ongoing exploration and study on how tropical cyclones react to changes in their immediate environment tempered with a good knowledge of climo that takes into account all other storms of past Octobers.

There you go.. appearing on the big screen for all to see..


Don't get to see many hurricane summers like this..there are oceans of information yet to be learned and explored, studied by the professional mets.. for now.. watch and learn.

Shabbos meal at my house

Chicken w/ Potatoes and Onions
Israeli Salads and Gefilte Fish
Challah and French Bread with Rosemary Herbs
Lots of Cinnamon Graham Crackers put away "in case" for Wilma.. maybe I'll break open a box.

11AM Discussion out of the Hurricane Center~
whether due to interaction with land or some other factors... the western portion of the inner core convection briefly weakened earlier this morning... but that did not last long. The ring of very deep convection has reconstituted around the entire 30 N miwide eye... which has become a little clearer and warmer in satellite imagery. The Cancun radar depicts a very solid outer eyewall over Cozumel... and the inner eyewall is likely weaker but perhaps not as weak as it seems on radar due to attenuation.Passive microwave overpasses from AMSR-E and AMSU during the pastfew hours depict the outer eyewall at a radius of about 45 N mi...and earlier aircraft data contain wind maxima at radii of about 20and 45 N mi. It is possible that the outer eyewall will contract and lead to intensification in the short term... but eyewalls with this large of a diameter sometimes remain steady-state. Dvorak intensity estimates at 12z did not quite support the current advisory intensity of 125 kt... but that was before the deep convective ring reformed.

Wilma is located in between a mid-level ridge centered over western
Mexico and a more extensive ridge over the subtropical Atlantic.
The Atlantic ridge seemed to have more influence until very
recently... when the north-northwestward motion slowed. The initial
motion estimate is now northwestward...325/4...and the short term
motion might be even slower. 12z upper-air data from this morning's
NOAA G-IV jet surveillance mission indicate perhaps even a little
more ridging over the Gulf of Mexico than contained in the
short-term forecasts from the 06z models... so the slower motion
now observed is not surprising
. Nearly all of the dynamical models
forecast the center of Wilma to make landfall on northeastern
Yucatan today... as does the official forecast. The models do not
agree on how long Wilma will spend over land
... and the new
official forecast...while adjusted westward and slower than the
previous advisory through 48 hours...remains to the east of most of
the models and keeps Wilma on land for less than 18 hours.
Obviously... a longer stay over Yucatan could cause more weakening
than forecast...but the opposite is also true.
In the 3 to 5 day time frame...the new official forecast is
basically unchanged. Fortunately for the sake of better agreement
among the models...
the NOGAPS no longer keeps Wilma in the
Caribbean for five days and is now more in line with the remaining
models. This results in the dynamical consensus being in fairly
good agreement with the previous advisory at days 3-5. However...
the spread in the models remains quite large... and both the
location and timing of the impacts on Florida remain very
The new intensity forecast is very similar to the
previous advisory in steadily weakening Wilma over the Gulf of
Mexico due primarily to increasing shear. However... if Wilma does
not spend much time over Yucatan... it could be stronger than
forecast when it crosses Florida.

Forecaster Knabb


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