Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, August 29, 2005

Noon: Update on Katrina.. Will Bush Release the Oil Reserves?

Watching coverage.

Going to write something here because have learned in life the hard way that if you dont toot your horn.. no one else does it for you.

So... want to say I am eerily amazed that everything I said this storm would do.. it did.

Wasn't some crystal ball or tarot card reading.. but watching the story unfold on water vapor imagery.. watching the wind flow and having a very good grasp of hurricane history..climo.. trends and will say I have learned a lot from some of the very best in the industry that I count among my close friends.

I've learned that a storm will retain the shape that it started out with... how or why I don't know but it is true. And, when as a depression she had a funny shape with a big line of storms to her NE I knew that when she became a hurricane she would develop one Long BIG Band there on the NE side.. and she did. And, as a wave.. she had that same look.

I knew she would slide up along Cuba... Old Bahama Passage and she did.

I knew she would hit Miami-Dade/Broward line and she did.. though she just barely kissed Ft. Lauderdale Beach of "where the boys are" fame before moving SW like the consistent GFDL model predicted she would do... down SW all the way through Miami.. and she kept going until she was just north of Key West. I didn't think she would do so far SW... WSW yes .. but even I didn't think she would go that far. But did know this was not a Palm Beach storm.

Knew she would become a hurricane before hitting land and before the hurricane center called her a tropical storm. And, I was right she would hit Thurdsay night and not Friday. Told friends at work who I was worried on that live on Miami Beach to prepare for her to come in sooner and that she would go south of forecasted track. I was right.

From the moment she made it west..that far west and I thought on my knowledge of hurricanes.. I knew she was copying Betsy's track.. Andrew's track and she would take aim at New Orleans and areas around there ... I was right.

Someone on the board teases me I have mind melded to this storm. LOL. Nah...not at all. I just see what is happening.. good gut, good knowledge and I use the water vapor a lot. More on that later.

Watched the water vapor when NHC had her coming in around West Florida and thought.. no I don't buy it. Mind you I don't have to support my gut or issue warnings that local governments are going to have to work with.. no it's just my own feeling.

Knew she would come in further East and as knew the eye would go over Bay St. Louis.

You can check my posts and see I was right. Should have thought on Slidell but truth is I have been to Bay St. Louis and know it better and for some reason forget about Slidell. We all identify with what we know best.. but knew the eye would hit where it did.

I am amazed.. not the first time.. just wierd.. and going to explain this once.

Many forecasters work with models...and they live or die by the models and they don't like to choose they blend the different models and draw a line down the middle to be on the safe side. But there is no being on the safe side when it comes to weather.. it does what it wants to do and storms go where they want..they don't always take the middle road. Which is why they draw the famous Cone.. and then the media plays up the middle of the cone.. which makes sense.

Many weather watchers look at the storms too close..they look at the floater.. local sat imagery... you can't do that.. you just can't. You have to go WIDE.. go up high and look at the whole synoptic flow.. you cannot let yourself get mesmerized by the center.. and every fast frame that comes in on the floater or NRL.. you have to watch the ever changing... water vapor loop which shows you where the moisture..the water vapor..the highs and the lows want to go tomorrow.... and blend that with patterns...

Patterns of the past... laid over what you see today.. learn from the past.

If a storm is going that far due west over South Florida there is one hell of a high pushing it even if you don't see it well on IR or VIS or even WV.. it ha to be there..

Anyway... the worst is over for New Orleans and thankfully it is still there however people living on the east side have major flooding and there will be some clean up. Not to mention got to get that rooftop fixed on the Superdome and let the people go home.. and clean up.

Remember.. one good twister in a distant band can change much of what I say for an area that looks like it got off.

The storm is stronger than she seems and we are lulled into complacency by her wind speed dropping. TWC showed it and on the posters have noticed she is looking almost stronger in rain and storms on her east side.. remember...most of her is still over water.. The eye has moved inland but as I said earlier... she is and was always bottom heavy and most of her bottom is out over warm water and she is moving along the coast ne.. slamming that red that is growing stronger into Biloxi.. Gulfport... Mobile and even Fort Walton Beach.

Now the damage reports will come in...

and, people all over America who really don't care THAT much if New Orleans is okay or not like us down south do..they want to know bottom line, bottom Bush going to release those reserves we hold onto in case of an emergency. Of course he was saving them for some political drama probably. Stay tuned and see what Bush does..

And... keep watching the drama unfold.

Good luck to all the chasers in her path who are recording her landfall.. taking data at landfall and relaying it to different weather services around the country.. its not all just about loving danger.. its more..

She is beautiful... so beautiful... from a meteorological point of view... from up in outter space..

Simply beautiful lady... but a deadly one..

who got to see a sunset in Katrina's eyes the first time she made landfall.. and glad I didn't have to be in the eye the second time she made landfall..


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