Updated 8:30 PM 70 MPH Winds. Expected to be a HurricaneSoon!. Invest 98L in the Gulf. New Wave Off of Africa. Charley 2004.

5 PM Cone.

 

Recon found Erin stronger.

Interestingly pressure is the same...

...some banding forming on N side now.

Steady as she goes 17 MPH West.

Invest 98L 50% orange chances.

Over very warm water.

Could be named moving towards landfall.

Happens sometimes there.

FLARES UP

flares down...

FLARES UP

flares down....

Possible they will upgrade Erin to Cane.
IF recon finds stronger info.

They are in Erin now.

Thoughts tonight. How do you get rid of a cough?? Oh Lord been a long day personally. IF Erin's forecast is to verify she needs to start climbing consistently in latitude. High pressure over her is still quite strong, she was battling a bit of shear and being a small sized almost hurricane it is harder to make a dent into a strong high as has been forecast. Obviously the models that split from the pack and put her closer to Florida sense she will get further West before the turn. It's very basic Hurricane 101. But just because you want something to happen you can't make it happen it has to play out in real time. 

You can see the dark air on the WNW side of her.

Goes across the top some.

Holding it down.

Atmosphere is fluid.

It changes suddenly, rearranges itself.

Sometimes it traps a storm a bit longer.

Will see in the morning.

This is a post from when Dorian was in this same spot.

More or less

So many hurricanes have been.

Below is an old post from 2017.
Dorian nearing the Islands.

Keep reading if you did not do so today.

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Still forecast to be a Major 

The Cone is basically an extrapolation ....

...of the previous forecast track.

Models are in good agreement.........

...tho a few always break from the pack.

Are they crazy? 

Or do they sniff something out others do not?

These are probabilities not a forecast.

Not carved in stone.
Distant rain in the bands can have high winds.

Again as the disclaimer says at the top...

"Hazardous conditions can occur outside the cone"

The reason before that is spelled out below.

Cone is North of the Islands........

...but squalls out far from the center produce danger.

I will talk on ensembles later in an update.

Erin has insisted on staying on a Westward track and not budged from that though at times a bit South of Due West and she lost some latitude doing so. Models updated in real time sometimes break from the pack and show her being further West or South on some model runs. They swing left (oh MY!) and to the right (YAY!) and it's too soon to post some "all is clear ignore Erin nothing to worry about" and that goes for the East Coast as it does Bermuda, never forget The Bahamas.

There's Erin.
Back to being a red core of strong winds.

On the Southern side of the envelope.

She looks upside down as there is shear.

Shear SAL and cooler water.

As she moves towards warmer water... 

...you should see a big difference.

If not back to Ye Olde Shoppe at the NHC.

Weaker storms go West.

Stronger storms try and pull North.

Ridge needs to cooperate to pull North.

Timing is everything.

There's a new wave coming off of Africa.

NHC may or may not put up a yellow circle.

And closer in is Invest 98L

I think it will go with right side of models.

Originally powers that be insisted into Pacific.

Then NHC said Mexico.

Then NHC said Tex/Mex.

So..

Pay attention if you are in the Gulf.

It's a real time live evolving story!

98L to the left in the Gulf.

Moving "NW" they say.

Eric sort of Center Stage.

New Wave off of Africa far right.

Some Hurricane History

Above is the track for Charley 2004.

Small storm, weak ...

..note intensified offshore.

Just before landfall.

You can go to @PhilFerro7 on X and there's a link to his article. It's worth a read and you should definitely follow him if you live in the South Florida area. There's been much talk and arguements between some online wanting to hold open the door that something could change fast not for seen in Erin's forecast and others who simply say she is a "Fish" storm and curving out to sea.

Every time there is a hurricane close in to the Florida area and possibly turning up along one side of the coast or the other someone, lots of people bring up Hurricane Charley in 2004. Note they don't mention Hurricane Floyd that as I said yesterday the NHC nailed perfectly and swerved away from South Florida and went up to North Carolina. They always remember the controversial storms like Charley.

To be fair it's very common for a hurricane to wander along within the Cone of the NHC even from an early forecast. Other times there are wrenches in the forecast, wrinkles that need to be found and smoothed out in real time. The storms are not programmed by the NHC to follow their forecasts, the NHC does the best it can and they do a good job. And, when there's a wrinkle that pops up they adjust the cone and the forecast. IF you read the Forecast Discussion in the advisory package they highlight when they have low confidence or high confidence and you get a feel for what they are thinking when they put out the Cone. A Cone is a static image that doesn't show or explain why they adjusted it to the right or left. 

So leaving you with this as it's very timely. Back in 2004 when everything could go wrong for Florida, Hurricane Charley a small compact storm (much like Erin) that intensified close in as she was tracing the coastline Florida's West Coast expected to turn in somewhere up the coast. She became a Major Hurricane very quickly and suddenly lunged right at Port Charlotte. The day before Port Charlotte was not in the Cone, in fact I think it was about 6 to 12 hours before landfall when they nudged the Cone a drop to the South so technically when it hit it was in the cone. Charley was so compact many said it was as if a tornado hit the area. The 1950 King Hurricane that hit Miami also was said to do severe damage in a narrow path much like a tornado and some areas in the suburbs of Miami had literally no wind at all. Small hurricanes have a complex set up of paramters that only exist in a small tight wrecking ball type Hurricane. People are encouraged to always monitor a storm until it moves way past your area as it's common to have a surprise somewhere in it's track be it strength, direction of forward speed!

I am sick today, my husband is sick as well though probably worse than me. He begins to get better and then starts coughing again. I'm home taking meds and looping, researching and doing my thing. I'll update later today as the story warrants and evolves. I'm okay if I don't push it and if I don't talk I cought less. Haha if you know me... not easy. Life happens when you are making other plans. The way hurricanes sometimes do something we didn't expect!

@philferro7 on X and there's a link to the article as it's complicated putting it here and I'm not feeling great so taking a break from Erin for a few hours. Let her spin West, let her try and intensify and will see what she looks like at 5 PM>

Sweet Tropical Dreams

Or Fall Dreams...whatever your dreams.

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

Video from Jim Edds a friend of mine.

Good chaser, good guy!

while I tracked Charley and wrote about it...

..and said it would turn in around where it did.

Phil Ferro has better details and explains it well.

People have been bringing up Charley often lately.

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 Point is you never ignore a hurricane or a Tropical Storm and you don't look at a few Cones from the NHC and decide your area is safe as even in 2025 hurricanes can be fickle, they can ignore model suggestions and do their own thing. We are better at knowing when Rapid Intensification will happen but we are far from perfect. 

Also once Recon goes into Erin we will have a way better picture of her and know more and in theory cones after that will be of better quality. Also when they fly the Gulfstream Jet around and sample the atmosphere out ahead of Erin they have better data to put into the next models and the next forecast package.