Erin at 5 PM - 5 MPH Stronger. Pulling Herself Back Together. Area in Carib Being Monitored. Does Erin Behave? Does Mother Nature Have a Trick or Is the Forecast Golden? Soon We Will Have Clues.

 

Pressure dropped a bit.

Winds up a bit.

You can see she's got color again!

Erin is such a fighter against the most difficult odds and she is a small sized system that can easily give it up against so much dry air and Saharan Dust.  The Devil is in the dust for tropical storms usually. Yesterday she was down to one or two red dots taking turns firing up near her center and losing latitude as she spiraled West or a drop South of West. Even now she looks upside down as she is bottom heavy and yet she spirals on. Storms such as this usually turn out to be big game changers in some ways, not little mediocre storms that slide out to sea without making any impact; she's already so Erin officially is a Killer Storm. Nine people have died in Cabo Verde from flooding and weather associated dangers related to Erin. Back in the day writers would say the storm has tasted blood and will not go quietly into the night. Nowadays we argue each model output and assume she will follow the game plan the models mostly agree on. How times have changed. And, yet storms overproduce or underproduce and often one element of the story line is changed and the result is the conclusion changes a bit in real time.

Let's talk about the NHC. They do an incredible job and adjust for any changes when the time comes and they must. Their cone almost always verifies and they try hard to be consistent and keep it simple which does help the general public believe their forecast. They don't put out a wild, explosive headline on every advisory as some on YouTube and TicToc do (not to say there are not incredible meteorologists on both) and they quietly try to keep it simple, steady and believable. The trouble is that sometimes there's one factor that doesn't quite work out in a long tracking system and that one factor extrapolated over a large area of miles can put Erin closer to land or way further out at sea. It can help Erin get her where she needs to go fast or it can slow down and miss the best opportunity to swirl away into a sea of oblivion. Sometimes Bermuda gets in the way and sometimes the Outer Banks that stick out into the Atlantic tempting hurricanes to clip them as they curve out to sea get more than they bargained for ... 

I'm not going to talk on models except to say that some models runs of respected models have come closer to the US mainland while seeming to still make the turn. That said on the next model run they can be in the same spot or further out to sea or further to the South. Erin could slow down some and that was not expected or speed up and sweep across the Atlantic kicking up waves in the Carolinas and Virginia and letting everyone have a sigh of relief until the next name on the list is up and looking their way.

On this satellite imagery Erin looks strong.

A Neptunian Princess swimming thru Atlantean waters.

On this image above...

..she looks like she's doing Mission Impossible!

SAL holds up a Red Stop Sign.

Erin ignores it....plows on into it!

My job here is not to scare you, but it's also not to mislead you into thinking there's not a chance in hell that the models may pull West and she may get closer to the US coast than previously thought. She's far out still and battling her way back to looking like a Tropical Storm as many meteorologists I respect insisted she was not a TS anymore but the NHC was holding the line and expecting her to come back today closer to warmer water and she did just that. Look at the image above. She is not moving NW up into the SAL she is being kept in check and I think this is on the most basic level more about the dust...the Saharan Dust holding her in check and making it hard for her to gain traction or latitude and intensify. She has a ways to go before she can see the lighter golden colors deviating from the dark, harsh red dry dust that can suck the life out of a small, weak tropical storm. Yet, Erin doesn't scare easy and she's stubborn. Think Florence as she barreled West across the whole of the North Atlantic as each discussion from the NHC held out the carrot that it would not last long but she want the whole way to the Carolinas. Georges barreled WNW hitting every island in the Caribbean refusing to make the turn the NHC forecast before the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Hey, that does not happen often but the ones who defy the rules, often are the ones we remember years later and use as examples.

The forecast was for Georges to turn before...

Virgin Islands

Puerto Rico

DR

Haiti

Eastern Cuba...

She sliced through the Florida Straits.

A huge hit on Key West...

and continued on her way.

Difficult hurricanes are just different.

Will Erin be remembered for some trick?

A stall or a loop.

Get trapped under a ridge?

Bermuda bound?

Canada?

Wild surf off OBX?

Time will tell.

In the old days it'd sink ships.

Now the NHC puts up warnings.

Be very grateful.

The graveyard by OBX...

..is littered with ships that sailed into storms.

At 5 PM she's 5 MPH stronger.

It was the headline from the NHC.

Let's look at discussion again.

Some shear ahead, "unclear how much shear"

We should know in 12 hours if she's behaving.

Or misbehaving.

Following forecast speed wise and intensity...

...or making everyone sweat!

Quoting below from discussion.

"the guidance envelope has shifted a little westward since the last advisory, and the new forecast track is also a little west of the previous track." It's added that there's "an average error of 150 to 215 miles at days 4 and 5, and future adjustments to the forecast are still possible"

I can sing Jimmy Buffett's "time will tell" tune but not going to as in truth Mother Nature sometimes gets a vote and adds a wrench in that's either small or large, and until it happens or does not we won't know. The only "sure" thing is the 3 day and the 5 day is a good suggestion, so check out the cone below. Also check out the current estimate of intensity with the current forecast points. I knew it was Beven without looking, he writes good honest discussion.

Strong hurricanes like to go North.

Weaker storms stay West.
NHC does the best job they can.

In the end it's up to Erin 

and whatever tricks Mother Nature pulls.

Speaking of new systems there is slow chance yellow area of interest in the SW Carib that looks to get into the Gulf or more specifically BOC,  NHC has flirted with sending recon into it despite it's low chances of development and I guess we will find out in real time tomorrow if it they fly or wait another day. 

This is the area by the Yucatan...
..being monitored by NHC.

Low chances for now.

vs 

Much potential for Erin below.

As you can see... 

...forecast to be a Major!

Stay tuned.

"The storm is more than 2,200 miles away from the North Carolina coast and getting closer to the Leeward Islands today." According to the link below, 2,200 miles between the NC and Erin that is staring at the Islands currently. While Florida watches and The Bahamas watch and Carolinas and Savannah watch as they have all seen Andrew and Floyd and Fran and the Sea Island Hurricane track along a similar route and many in Charleston see Hugo. But her name is Erin and we have to see if Mother Nature is kind or up to her old tricks.

Stay tune. As always use this time to devise a Hurricane Plan and get hurricane supplies. There's lots more that will form both in the Gulf, the Carib and out in the Atlantic from waves as there are many waves over Africa now but so far nothing looks serious in the models. We can discuss the Kelvin Waves and why it's expected to be a favorable environment with a green light for those waves yet to roll off of Africa.

Sweet Tropical Dreams........

........or Sweet Pumpkin Spice Frappe Dreams!

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather

Elsewhere whatever...

I studied dance.

My best friend studied dance.

This dance scene was legendary...

..for little girls dressed up fancy.

Does NHC win this one?

Or does Mother Nature have other ideas???

Luckily there's no video of little girls...

...dressed up in heels and sexy clothes

Vamping it up and having fun ;)

Stay tuned.........