This is a Seasonal Outlook from NOAA
13 - 19 Named Storms
No they don't exactly narrow it down....
....vs giving a wide range.
6 - 10 Hurricanes.
Wide berth...but definitely says busy.
Major Hurricanes 3-5
Could be high like five....
...or more normal like 3.
Google AI says this about that:
Here's the link to their recently relased forecast:
Breaking it down in parts..... these are the main basic factors mentioned regarding the numbers forecast!
Weak windshear
Warm water
Forecast strong West African Monsoon (provides the tropical waves....
It's worth noting that early season forecasts often have hiccups as often a forecast doesn't verify as wind shear at any given time can be hard to predict. And it's mathematical formula based on many moving parts in the equation. And yet, it's a snap shot of what the season will be like, but for unforseen factors.
Lots of math in Meteorology!!!
The link up above mentions some changes and things the NHC will be doing this year that I will speak about over the next week or so as we move day by day, one day closer each to the start of the hurricane season in 10 days.
Again these are the names of the year!
Personally, this is just me, I'm more into the CSU forecast put out earlier in April that has 43 pages of data and information that relates to the conditions we are expecting this year. I will link the report at the bottom of the blog. It's not for the faint of heart with little meteorological knowledge... but if you work your way through it .... you will learn a lot. Knowledge is power and the details in the CSU report are extremely valuable.
Cliff Notes to the above graphic from CSU.
17 Named Storms
9 Hurricanes
4 Major Hurricanes
CSU goes out more on a mathematically derived ledge.
Easier for NOAA to verify with wider parameters.
But this should give you motivation...
...to prepare for Hurricane Season.
Holding at 50% in the EPAC
Again while these are low latitude waves.
It's a definite Wave Train.
Multiple Waves Moving Along....
With time they will climb higher.
With time the water there will warm up.
With time they will develop.
https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html Here's a link to the CSU report.
Note the NOAA forecast doesn't mention Saharan Dust as a factor nor do they give out analog years. It's a good snap shot; a press release with a heads up to a possibly busy hurricane season.
Your job is to prepare for Hurricane Season. Here's another link below to their advice on how to prepare.
Note again they say to have CASH on hand.
Sweet Tropical Dreams,
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on X
X mostly weather
Elsewhere whatever
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