A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Wednesday, September 11, 2024
Hurricane Francine & Tropical Depression 7 ... Francine Center Stage Today. TD 7 Far Atlantic Off Africa. Yellow Circle OFF Carolinas Close IN... Lots of Waves
Francine
Cone for 11 AM shown soon...info at 10 AM:
TD 7 Below.
Discussion in video on yellow circle.
Honestly, decided to take the day and "enjoy" the coverage of Francine making landfall and do some things I need to do while watching online, on TWC and FOX Weather where experts give awesome analysis as well as ...hey... Cantore is on the road! Prayers this is not too bad for the people in the path of Francine, but again it's going to slam into all our favorite towns along the coast of Louisiana and Mississippi, including New Orleans and up into Mississippi. The area off the SE in a yellow circle has long term implications for the East Coast from Carolinas up to possible NY and New England. So while it is only a yellow circle, should it form ...it could be a storm to remember.
Remember that while watching Francine. And thinking on TD 7 seen below.
There are some points I want to make and they should be remembered as Francine moves towards land.
Note the WEATHER ahead of Francine.
Also keep in mind remnants of the blob to the East.
5 AM Cone
My thoughts at 11 AM...
We have been trained like Pavlov's Dog to chase the Cone as we chase the center of the Cone. The center IS important for those in the center and for those chasing who want to be in the EYE and EYEWALL and it's an academic point, a fact ....and yet often in storms such as Francine the center is less important overall for impacts far from the center where people often feel "safer" and understanding the timing of things.
When they say what time landfall will be they often miss the point that severe weather, including tornadoes can be far out ahead of landfall, especially in a system such as this one. Remember when Idalia was still approaching landfall, there were strong winds and rain pounding Vidalia Georgia far to her NE as Idalia was a front loaded system. We often see them when they are in the Gulf of Mexico going NE especially when moving towards a feature that catches parts of them, way before it grabs the eye.
This whole area is NOW getting weather.
It'll get worse weather. It'll get random crazy weather. This is not a Cat 5 compact hurricane.
It's a hurricane....blob like in ways.
Strong center down to SW.
Heavy bands moving inland now.
All the strong weather to NE (front loaded)
Dry air = black on this loop
Darker the drier. White wetter.
Dry/Moist
Creates severe weather.
Stronger squalls over a wider area.
It's not your Momma's Katrina....
...get Katrina out of your mind.
It's Francine.
Elephant in the room:
There was a strange ballet evolving in real time on Mimic last night, stealing my attention from Francine. It was this dip dipping down and verifying the models that something could form off the SE Coast from several factors. I've mentioned this nonstop lately, when the MDR is not favorable and can't get much spinning, look close in as often something spins up close in off the SE coast. This morning's MIMIC shows a stronger, faster evolution but as always NHC floats a yellow Zero% in 2 day and 20% in the 7 day. It is almost always their opening bid, so to speak.
Special Advisory Hurricane Francine 85MPH Winds ...........
* * *
Track keeps moving East some...
See the pinks inside the white ball.
Eye wall trying to form... not yet.
On track... track shifted a dropo East.
Will see at 11 PM what they do.
New Orleans in Cone.
NOTE BLACK SHADED AREA AT TOP
"Hazardous conditions can occur outside"
Cone is for the "path" "track"
See colorful watches and warnings.
NHC not doodling....
..they are showing u watches/warnings.
From Tex/Mex border to Alabama.
Various watches and warnings.
Follow NHC and NWS in your local area.
The Salient or as I used to type $alient parts of the NHC Discussion deal with dry air hindering her development and how new data shows she is moving faster (8 MPH) and as she moves away from the interaction of land (Mexico) and dry air she should steadily intensify as she moves towards landfall tomorrow. Also modeling has shifted a bit East and the Cone has been moved a bit to the East now which you'll see better in the interactive cone below.
Parts of warnings up for Mississippi
Again as lay of the land there is one region.
For anyone that doesn't have a minor in Geography...
1 region as Louisiana goes out far to East.
Also when looking at this online...
...don't be distracted by the blob.
Blob to the N (original 90L to me)
Francine to S (91L)
We are tracking Francine.
See below.
Speaking of Invests.
92L models are changing.
Maybe NOT a Fish Storm??
Will deal with this another time.
But a reminder....
This is a video I made earlier.
It's a cut to the chase.
And a reminder not to look at the blob.
I'll update at 5 PM.
Unless something "odd" happens.
Being 2024 ... who knows.
Today is a "named storm day" and I'm taking the day off to watch coverage online a little and clean up the house some and figure what to make for dinner, which may be Jamalaya as we had hot dogs & baked beans with bourbon, molasses and all sorts of stuff in the baked beans.
Please keep reading the blog as it was written at 10:30 and all still relevant. Old saying, satisfaction delayed and that is what is going on though Francine on time more or less and NHC does a bang up job with their forecast these days especially and any possible curveballs will be dealt with in real time online, at NHC and your local NWS.
Have to tell you I LOVE this part of the country and when I say love it in some sort of gut wrenching feeling the first time I was there as if I lived there in a previous lifetime IF you believe in that sort of stuff. Or if you believe in genetic memory as my Grandma lived in New Orleans for quite a while when young and my family had tobacco farms in Quincy Florida so all along I-10 there there are distant relatives that show up on Ancestry and some I actually know. Love the names of places "Terrabone" "Cameron Parish" "Vermillion Bay" "Iberia" and have this weird fascination with St. Mary Parish because of a long ago dream. Love Low Country, always have. Love Marsh, yet not as much swamps. Definitely not into Swamp Chasing as many Chasers call chases in this neck of the woods. Distantly related to old Creole families originally from France who made New Orleans their homes but had farms not so faraway from Francine's path. My Southern Belle grandma liked to call them Plantations... tho not all farms in the South were big plantations, when they moved to Tampa my Grandma's mother had a pony and a small farm in her backyard in Old Tampa! It's like driving through the South and seeing Ionic columns in front of a small Fast Food Market or small bank. Southerners are as New Age as our beliefs and style, yet old school when it comes to food, music and family legends. New Orleans has a whole lotta legends and my Grandma Mary was not allowed to go to Mardi Gras as things got wild "back then" and she was afraid of the voodoo queen lol. Can't make this stuff up... if I was Grandma I'd take out my Ouija Board and ask it "where is Francine going" but luckily today we have the NHC!!! YAY!!
While Ouija Boards were fun with Grandma...
...NHC is a whole lot more accurate!!
Here's the song....
....keep reading tho!!!
Keep..........
.........Reading!
10 AM Discussion Below.
Current Cone at 10 AM
Still 65 MPH
Moving around 5 MPH N
(is that forecast speed or actual?)
Barely moving.
Forecast to start moving SOON.
IF that does not verify.
We need to rethink the situation.
I have issues with Francine.
I always have, been bugging me.
Being honest.
Note models beginning to bend right.
After landfall.
A look at this morning's models.
Still shows it going UP deep ...
Remember NHC tracks the "center"
Even a remnant center.
I have had problems with this forecast.
Models have been horrible this year.
To me it would be logical there's a bend East.
Especially as this is not a long duration Major Cane.
Sysetm to the N to grab it there...
...but not soooo strong.
And as always it's all about TIMING
For now Francine is temporarily stuck...
..moving slowly if at all.
But forecast to move fast ...
..and intensify.
Wicked sistuation if verifies. Tricky. Sneaky.
Watching in real time.
This is the center.
Do not be confused with convection to NE
Center is actually flaring up.
Made this screenshot today.
Mike on his Morning Brew.
Note how much convection is over Texas
Tex/Mex
So the story ending is not altered totally, but it is delayed. Tex/Mex getting pounded with rain from the West flank of Tropical Storm Francine and having part of her over a landmass or that near doesn't help her intensify. She needs to start moving further North up into GOM where she can find her groove. Add in the BLOB to the NNE of her needs to move away and let Francine breathe.
As always 2024 delivers 2 convective areas.
We saw this before earlier in the season.
Down low is Francine.
Up above is her huge shadow blob.
She came together from 2 parts.
She has not lost the other part.
This is how it'll play out.
Bottom Line....
Follow all info from NHC and your local NWS if you live in the region associated with Francine and or her stalker fan that refuses to leave and will also dump copious amounts of rain across the landfall are way before landfall. That's always a problem because it makes preparing for the forecast hurricane or evacuating from one harder if you wait too long.
Trust the NHC and your local NWS and proceed accordingly.
Don't listen to Aunt Martha who has a medium telling her the forecast.
Don't listen to the guy on YouTube promising you a Cat 4 Hurricane at landfall ...always.
Listen to the NHC and NWS and IF anything changes, they will change in real time.
I'll add song in after 11 AM Discussion is added.... stay tuned......
2 PM 60 MPH Stronger Tropical Storm Francine. IF IN CONE PREPARE for NHC Forecast Hurricane Francine. A Look Around the Atlantic!
TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE
NHC finds Francine stronger.
As expected... on her way to Cane.
This is what you call "blooming"
Blossoming...
Moisture feed goes ENE towards FL
Francine moving NNW at 5 MPH.
Will begin a turn later on.
For now it's consolidating.
Doing what it has to do.
Let's look around the Atlantic Basin.
There's Francine
(remember part of her was a dud wave)
Orange X shows higher chances.
...but one behind it has more excitement.
60/60 orange wave
30/70 red wave
There's another wave over Africa but...
...let's stick with these.
Invest 92L below.
Lead orange wave.
I know it's counterintuitive...
...is what it is this minute.
Models mostly...show it curving out to sea.
I will say the wave train looks better today.
More curvaeous
Waves in the ocean, cresting...
Not a flat... ocean.
Surfers totally understand this ;)
Long range model.
They all turn out to sea.
And yet...........
...there's a huge storm off of Carolinas.
GFS NEXT Saturday.
Canadian shows it as well but weaker.
I said long range.
Not showing what happens Monday after.
Use your imagination ...
Rides up coast towards BIG CITIES...
ICON shows a system off FL...
...sits and tries to form.
September 17th
The main point here is that while the MDR waves do get chances to get names or some sort of designation, but currently they look to swim off out to sea where they could wander about with some energy. But, there are no current scenarios where they make a bust WNW and go up and over the Islands. But when you have that many waves in September they are definitely worth remembering they are there and it is September Remember.
Do we always remember September?
For Hurricane Reason?
Other reasons?
Summer ends, kids go off to school.
Leaves turn and begin to fall.
September has so many things to remember.
I'm probably digressing LOL. Sorry in a mood today.
As for Miss Francine she is set to be a Hurricane. How mean will she be is the real question??
A hurricane down there in that region can do a whole lotta damage, destruction and sadly death.
Can Francine get stronger than Beryl?
Beryl on landfall trying to intensify?
We will see.
Many think she will pull East move.
My question is when?
On landfall or after landfall?
I'm a little unsure on end game.
I don't have any real deep reasons to say this, just it would be need to be really strong and feel the urge to go ...get pulled further to the North up the Mississippi River Valley. If she peaks too fast she could bend a bit more to the right and her weather will lean more towards Mississippi and Tennessee and I do mean WEATHER not the actual remnant center far to the left closer to the forecast track. We see this happen sometimes and waiting to not worry on that and just believe everything goes as planned. Early in the game, time will tell. Name of the "game" now is "PREPARE" if Francine is headed to your town!
Lots to do ... lots to think on.
As for the Wave Train. I do think one of those waves will go under the radar and pop up closer to let's say Florida and maybe that helps create this "born near Florida" system or just travels somewhere, wherever the weather patterns would take it when that happens.
Remember and don't fool yourself. Francine didn't just "POP UP" she's one part "the wave" we followed across the basin that didn't do anything until it met up with the forever yellow circle over the Gulf of Mexico that wanted so badly to spin, and finally found a way to spin and is now Francine!
Sweet Tropical Dreams,
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Twitter mostly weather and Instagram whatever.
LOL enjoy the song.
Had a friend who used to love to sing this song.
Why not sure, but she did...
We weren't good singers....
....better dancers
But we'd do routines to Oldie Goldies..
Being silly....
...so sticking with old songs.
Love 80s songs.
This was filmed at my friend's father's carnival...
... LA Days :)
As for the wave train
...may not be the one we wanted.
But one may catch our attention.
(I liked Grease 2...there's a song, bugging me)
But that's just me
ps there's this wave no one watching
Except me?
Definitely a weather maker
11 AM above
5 AM below.
As recon data comes in ....
...cone will shift around often to small degrees.
Don't follow the center line and expect changes.
Intensity and possibly direction.
5 AM Cone.
NOW we have TS Francine.
Salient parts of NHC Discussion shown with Selfie of Francine...
"guidance this cycle has shifted a little Eastward and faster" (both impt)
"shows Francine moving ashore of Louisiana sometime on Wednesday Evening"
"assuming the cyclone's veritical structure becomes aligned......" (always impt)
"significang intensification" is on the table.
Once again we would have a hurricane making landfall at night, unless something changes and often things change. Especially as Francine is still in formation stage. The question remains therefore, how vertically stacked will she be tomorrow? There's also a question of the influences of steering currents to the S and N of Francine ... sometimes the same feature can feed RI into a Major Hurricane and other times the exact same feature can keep Francine as a borderline Cat 2 trying to intensify. It's too soon to be sure, but because the Gulf of Mexico creates the old "bull in the china shop" set up ... it's important to take watches and warnings seriously from the NHC.
As the sun comes up... looked like a TS
What do I think?
This has a flash flood threat.
Topography of GOM shelf...
..in some areas leads to high storm surge.
Fast and furious ... it can't be ignored.
And winds...oh my goodness...
This could be one messy wind storm.
As a PTC it has 50 MPH Winds!
It's a solid ball currently of trouble.
I'll update at 2 PM with any upgrades in intensity or information. I think it needs to be taken seriously. In years such as this one we can easily see one or two storms over produce so to speak. And, hate to say it but the pattern in the Gulf of Mexico is ripe for more landfalls later this season.
Speaking of the rest of the season.... at 2 PM they will update the graphics so I'll go more into that than now.
Do you really want to dance the tango with this one?
Updated 5 PM. PTC6 in GOM. All Eyes on Texas & Louisiana Currently ...While PTC6 Takes It's Time Consolidating ...
PTC6 5 PM
My Bottom Line here is this...
The center hasn't formed and until it does we are guesstimating the position of the system. Guidance shifted a little bit East and a Tropical Storm should form tomorrow, Monday September 9th! Really so many variables here, know it's there and the PTC Cone should give those in it's path an idea of where it may make landfall and where it will go after landfall. Note it could go deeper inland than most would think normally. Should be Francine tomorrow, but again never count your storms until they form.
If you are in the Cone or near the Cone make sure you aren't missing anything from your hurricane supplies and figure out what you will do. Intensity currently is on the low side hurricane wise, but again the center has not formed and we will know more once it does.
Good job NHC!
Lots of places in Wind Probs.
Gulfport has low wind probs also.
Models in good agreement.
Timing and strength matters.
Check out remnants of 90L..
...staring down at 91L.
When they come together....
...we have a named storm.
Francine next name up.
Please keep reading as everything I said earlier is true and verifying, as I said if they did not find a center they would upgrade to PTC later today and they did...and here we are.. follow me in real time on X @bobbistorm Wind probabilities above, if you have 3 lines there...take it seriously as one way or the other you should deal with some sort of impacts from this developing system.
***
90/80 GOM 91L 60/40 ATL orange X 92L
Strongest signal we've had....
...for named storms in a long while.
I would say 91L in the GOM is a done deal to get a name. I would add it may get a PTC Cone if not a desingnation really soon, recon on the way later today. If they find a center, we have a named system. Models are in good agreement overall, showing Mike's grid as Mike loves making grids and he does them well. Up on his Spaghetti Models Main Page.
Currently, models show a hurricane is possible and some would not rule out Cat 2 though depending on how close it travels to the coast and how fast it moves, may make that critical difference in intensity. Trying to believe that models this week will do way better than they had done previously, keep that in mind. Consolidation for a system forming from different strong ingredients is often a difficult Gumbo to make as one seasoning can overpower the rest or conflict too much whereas a good Gumbo blends perfectly! If you know Gumbo, you know...
Adding another graphic.
Hurricane Tracker App
They usually post this....
...a bit before NHC puts up a Cone.
They are historically excellent I'll add.
Francine next name up!
Today is a day of waiting. Waiting on Recon... Waiting on football games to begin....Waiting on daughter leaving and enjoying some time with her before we drop her at the airport. Waiting on a name to be given and waiting on the hurricane season to wake up from it's Rip Van Winkle Summer Nap. Waiting on the next cold front. Enjoying, savoring Fall while waiting on Winter.
We spend so much time waiting for things to happen and some things we have little control over, one of them being weather. I'll add our favorite teams as we are merely fans and followers, following along while hoping they will go the distance or at least have a winning season. I follow my MyAmi Dolphins (miami kid joke) and the Carolina Panthers. Lots of waiting .
Waiting to talk on this one....
...that may be the real deal!
Wait for tomorrow....
..... more on this one tomorrow!!
Big E on X shared this ...this morning.
Waiting on Dolphin game ....
Very Miami.
Tropical
Go Fins?
Swear I am going to pick a 3rd team to root for this year as Fins and Panthers can be real heartbreakers LOL. Love Football. And, when football is really happening, hurricane season tends to ramp up as September provides named storms even in weak hurricane seasons.
I'll update later today when and if the NHC upgrades an Invest to another designation, after Recon goes in and sends back the data, the facts.... and then we will know for sure rather than just waiting and watching.
Last night, we went out for Ice Cream to a local neighborhood place where kids and families hang out like a scene in an old time movie on small town life in the South. I looked over at my husband and realized he had one of my old hurricane tee shirts on and trust me I have a whole lotta of hurricane tee shirts. This literally is and was my favorite "map" in ways as it shows what I always call the Hurricane Coastline. Again, inland impacts are NEVER to be forgotten, but we do track the eye towards landfall. We track, we watch, we chase and we commuicate conditions the dangers to the general public. I have special NHC tee shirts from AOML and from friends online and some really old ones such as this one. I took it as a sign we would have an "eye" again to "track" and chase and communicate here in the blog.
I also have made "peace" so to speak with this hurricane season (resisted the urge to use a curse word lol) as the truth is it's more interesting in ways to study academically than many that just popped out named storms with wavering intensity the way a teen pops a zit that just showed up on their face!
I was never in love with the predictions made, but in this case everyone offering predictions piled on to the scenario of nonstop storms and dangers that go way back the Hurricane Name List for 2024. We have been burned before by "hot water in the MDR" and yet screaming that into the wind could cause a scene online. And, IF all the powers that be (including NOAA) belive it's a busy season, it's part of my "job" here to warn the general public what may be coming.
I've seen this years ago and I'm doing it again. No 2 hurricanes seasons are exactly the same. No 2 El Ninos or La Ninas are exactly the same. They are like Cabbage Patch Dolls, similar in their overall size and shape (they aren't Barbie and Ken) and yet each has their own different style. Same gene pool, but diverse, different and definitely not identical. Always was a Barbie Girl, but Cabbage Patch had their day in the sun. Barbie was always ready to ride... to run to the beach or dress up for a party ;)
Does Francine form in the GOM and do it's own version of Beryl's 2nd Act? Waiting....
Will update later. Gonna make Brunch.... will find out soon.
No surprise here... I was more into My Little Pony...
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
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