Updated 5 PM -African Wave Steals the Model Show Now at 40% Orange. 94L Chugging Along FAST Towards the Yucatan.

Zoom Earth always does Invests well.

As the sun goes down....

...Invest 95L is up and official.

Models are on board..

Understand that models are currently thrown CLIMO out of the cute little red convertible, backed up over it and then revved the engine leaving tire tracks on what usually think of as climatology. Time will tell if the models today are on to something. For every wave that was written off as unable to develop because of strong SAL it's riding with and strong shear at the entrance to the East Carib ...there is a named storm that did just that and went all the way to landfall!

Elsa in 2021 was just such a hurricane.

That said, here's some models below.

Again these are "ensemble models"

They suggest many tracks.

Only one wins the crown.

Until a storm forms with a verified center.

And, data has been put into new advisories.

Models can be wonky and unreliable.

But it's worth repeating this message.

Regarding the Islands..

...Crown Weather posted this map and note.

www.crownweawther.com 

Always good discussion.

So that's it!

Time will tell...

Models will change, rearrange.

If you are in the Islands....

...95L really should be watched!

Please keep reading if you have not.

And, as for 94L 

A rather speedy lil system...

...once it hits the yellow grid below..

It could steal the B name first.

Or not...

Stay tuned.

* * *

2 PM

Waited to see what NHC did at 2 PM and now I'm wondering when they may up the African Wave to Invest 95. 40% orange in the 7 day as models begin to come onboard with the idea that this African Wave will not fade away. There's a lot of discussion on 94L headed towards the Yucatan as to whether it fades away and doesn't get a name or even a TD designation. I'm holding back right now from giving my thoughts, other than it's moving VERY FAST and it needs to slow down to develop. Seeing how it's been stubborn and made it across a SAL filled Atlantic while doggy paddling just off shore of South America... not ready to write it off. It's late June, this is par for the course and what you'd expect. Somehow our expectations have been raised due to all the pre-season forecasts of a crazy busy year and many felt we should have 2 or 3 named storms in June to attain that high number at the end. Gotta tell you ...that's not true... it may be some "average" figure from all the years added up and divided but this is not Math Class. This is fly by the seat of your pants 2024 Hurricane Season that evolves in real time; and as always will bring surprises we didn't see coming.

Honestly the models today sprayed the hurricane maps from going into the Caribbean or tracks that take it closer to Florida and it's still a bit too far out to know what will be, but what we do know is the models like the African Wave. As in ALL ATTN has turned to the African Wave...that should be Invest 95L anytime soon

As Mike is most known for Spaghetti Models... using an image from his recent  short video on YouTube that shows the problem here. Yes, I know some tracks take it into the Gulf of Mexico.

My best advice here it to be prepared for any unwelcome arrival in Hurricane Country and check back on Twitter or X or whatever you enjoy checking back with and as get closer to the actual plot line we can discuss possible details.

Depends on many things:

Actually strength and alignment of any tropical cyclone that forms ..vertically speaking in the atmosphere.

Where and how strong the High Pressure is as whatever it'll be gets closer to the Islands.

Depends on sheer.....

............depends on how it deals with the SAL

Oh and there's a "cold front" moving down that could send it an invitation.

Weaker goes West.....in to the Caribbean. 

Stronger .... has more of an ability to make a turn up into our part of the world.

This time of year also shoots named storms West into Central America.

But..............currently models like it, they really like it.

Abandoning any attempt at paragraphs as this is not about fancy writing. It's about trying to nail down the unknown before a storm has formed, because models really like it.

Tantalizing. I know.

I'll update later today if and when it becomes an Invest.

It's currently almost 100 degrees in Raleigh, not as in "feels like" but as in "oh my gosh really it's 100 degrees" and I'm cooking dinner in a crock pot... it'll be BBQ Brisket on an Onion Roll with homemade Cole Slaw that I'll make while watching YouTube videos on everyone's thoughts while looping loops and wondering what if this really happens. Models loved 94L too before they were distracted by the African Wave. 

Stay tuned. I'll update later. 

You do your thing (prepare or live in denial... your choice, hope you choose wisely)

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter... Twitter mostly weather and Insta whatever.