Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, August 08, 2022

Updated! Good Evening Invest 97L - African Wave Moving into the MDR! Will Update Later Today with More Model Info and Thoughts on Olivia Newton John

Still 40% Westbound in the 5 day.
20% in the 2 day.

You can see the bright reddish orange blob.
Pretty good when we have a wave with a blob like center.
It's always a good start.
Next wave waiting for take off from Africa behind it!

Models show it Westbound for now...
..with a possible hook, curving some.
Models do show it being strong.
How strong?
Changes on various model runs.
Strong enough for a name.

One model shows a steep curve.
Others don't get that far.
Looks kind of typical so far.

It's been a long day. I meant to get back here earlier but the garbage disposal broke. Olivia Newton-John died after I put her song "I'm alive" at the bottom of my blog earlier. Boy, that really sucks. Honest, I liked her a lot in that way of someone who did musicals that made me smile. She sang beautiful love songs and I probably didn't want to listen to them sometimes when I was in a sad mood or other times in a mood to remember those I've loved. I saw Grease on stage before the movie so tho she was awesome, she wasn't the first Sandy I saw play the role. She was cute, fun and knew how to mix it up. When I lived in LA for a long time in the 80s she starred in Xanadu.  I studied dance when I was younger on afternoons, after school and I love Gene Kelly. My best friend Linda and I would debate male dancers, we both liked Gene Kelly yet her baby sister liked Fred Astaire. I could watch Gene Kelly dance all day and yet there he was dancing with a muse who rollerbladed. How perfectly 1980s that moment was and if you weren't around in the 80s in LA well you may think that's nuts but if you lived in West Hollywood, and I did, you'd know it was pretty fantastically perfect. 

Store in LA looked an lot like South Beach 

I lived on a street down the block from Melrose and she had a boutique on the corner. In the beginning she was there often setting up, working and she'd looked awesome not on stage, not on rollerblades nor a Ferris Wheel but just working in the store setting it up. My ex-husband used to buy me flowers from a flower stand on the side of her shop. Melrose was kind of wild then, much like the way the tropics kind of comes alive in August. Melrose sprung up boutiques and was all bouchie before it was even a word. Colorful shops, colorful people like being on the set of a movie that is being set up for a shoot.  Except every day was like a movie shoot. 

Oh and an old girlfriend out of the blue got in touch with me to remind me we were friends when we were 15 in Miami, yes I knew that and the suddeness of it seemed strange but not surprised. Still sounds a lot as if someone told her to call me, but let's put that aside and yes it was nice to connect even though I was cooking dinner at the time and fielding Whatsapp messages from my brother about some breaking news story.

The truth is this about Invest 97. 
It's got a heartbeat and has had one since it rolled off of Africa.
It has a window where it can develop in the short term.
In the long term it will, mostly likely deal with shear and more negative elements.
An early August Tropical Wave... 
What would you expect?
If it develops faster, it will most likely curve faster.
If it develops slower, it could curve further to the West and clip the Islands.
Who really knows?
It's got a heartbeat.
It's a possibility.

Also looking at a close in storm that could develop as a pop up down the road.
But that road is far away and tonight I'm shocked that I posted an Oliving Newton John song from Xanadu (one of my favorite movies to watch even with it's problematic over produced and undercut scenes because I love it... and the Pan Pacific Auditorium where it was filled near my house. I guess I get muses even before I understood the concept and I love to dance and I love purple. And, I once used a perfume called Xanadu.

So let's see what 97L can do...........

For anyone wondering......... I'm fine, I'm okay. I'm tired and have to stay home tomorrow for someone to fix the garbage disposal it seems.

Stay tuned.
Curtain up, light the lights... the season is about to hit the heights ...or at least we are one day closer to a named storm.

Ps... I'm really a Natalie Wood fan...
...she's dead also.
But oh while she lived... she was the best.
And, so was Olivia doing her thing!
A good song from a classic movie.... pretty sure she's dead so I don't have to worry on that. I'm sorry but really???

More tropics tomorrow.

Let's start over then...........


That's the Invest.
Live from the NRL site is an official view.

I owe Mike on this one as I did check to see if we were at 40% in the 5 day before a class I take online at 8:30 AM and didn't notice the designation yet by the NRL. An Invest means there is an area of interest that has been elevated to Invest status for a sort of deep dive into possibilities that this wave could become a closed system with a name. Next name up is Danielle.  Invest 97L is it's current "name" or designation. Early models show it going the distance Westbound  or at least trying. Never believe early model runs but watch them run to run to see the trend in both intensity and direction of track.

Now that we have moved past the basics for those of you who are new here I'm going to give my very early preliminary thoughts. 

Been watching this wave since before it rolled off of Africa. From day one it had a sort of BINGO look to it as if "this could be the one" that gets the season rolling. Always hard to tell early on as many a beautiful wave that looked as if it had a heart beat with a low attached unravels after it hits the cold water and breathes in too much Saharan Dust. And, sometimes we get a wave complex when a fast moving secondary wave slams into a slow moving first wave and other times all indications are that what comes off looking beautiful becomes a dangerous, beauty with a real name not just a number.

I'm always watching.
But I don't invest much into it until.... becomes an Invest.

Current view above.

Official NHC 20% in 2 days.
Hmnnn .... 
The NHC seems to be revving it's engine a bit.
40% in the 5 day.

I'll be back this afternoon. I want to see some more model runs. I want to see some data. I want to stare at loops a bit more and get a "feel" for Invest 97L. 

Stay tuned......... 

August 11th is that day when the Atlantic Hurricane Season seems to wake up, spread it's wings and remember it's alive and it's got work to do! Give or take a day or two either way. 

Sweetest Tropical Dreams,
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Twitter usually weather and Instagram whatever........

I'm an 80s girl in a 20s world lol ... Love this song, silly movie and memories of LA Days.


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