Hurricane Harbor

All's Quiet on the Tropical Front . . but....

2012-02-09T06:54:00.000-08:00

Though all is quiet on the tropical front for now and the NHC issued an announcment today that basically says "at ease" and they are going back to their regularly scheduled hibernation.

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
02/09/2012 06:46 AM EST

000
ABNT20 KNHC 091146
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
645 AM EST THU FEB 9 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NEXT REGULAR TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON JUNE 1
2012. SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED IF
A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM FORMS DURING THE OFF SEASON.

$$

The only thing I find strange though is the strong "looking" wave in the middle of the Atlantic. Not something you usually see this time of year.

Strange year, keep watching... and keep following me at www.electionweather.blogspot.com

Very Sweet Tropical Dreams,

Bobbi

NHC Shouts Out to Subtropical Disturbance

2012-02-06T08:43:00.001-08:00

They basically are shouting out it's a no go.... giving it only a Zero percent chance of development.

So, why are we bothering to talk on it?

Well... because it's a "shout out" of sorts and a "heads up" to the fact that it IS there. And, the fact that it IS there ...is something to talk about.

It's not normal for us to be even looking at the NHC site in February without, let alone to be talking on the name of the first named tropical system of 2012.

Usually we get to April or May or even June before we remind people that the first named storm of the 2012 season will be Alberto. Not this year.

2012...the year of extreme weather in random places. A year when people in one place get sunburns sunbathing on ground that is usually covered with a frost or snow and people in other places are freezing to death.

300 people have died in Europe from the cold weather this winter, while people in the Carolinas mourn the loss of snow this winter and people in South Florida are dealing with tropical rain from a system sliding through the Florida Straits into the Bahamas.

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/140433/death-toll-from-europe-cold-snap-passes-300

February is the month of the year that people in Miami rarely ever see rain. It's the dry season, the beautiful season, the season when people plan outdoor weddings on the bay expecting blue skies and fair weather. Hmnnnnn... well let's hope this little system moves on out and doesn't get replaced by another one as we are having a wedding down on Old Culter Road out by the bay later this month and no one was thinking for a minute to even worry on the tropics........

Keep watching... it's been a strange year weather wise...for now, it's just something to talk about....

Besos Bobbi

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mJ58TVYNFro <--- song ;)

NHC Hoists an Orange Circle

2012-02-05T17:56:00.000-08:00

"THE LOW IS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...AND A
SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING AND HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED TODAY...AND IF THIS DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...THEN A
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A SUBTROPICAL STORM COULD FORM DURING THE
NEXT DAY "

Salient point here is that it would be a short term system that merges with a frontal boundary.

Either way the weather forecast is for dark, stormy weather throughout the area. Ironically, if it develops into a more coherent system than the stronger weather would be over a smaller area. Then again, the stronger weather would be...stronger.

This is not, by the way, a test. It is the real thing, though a weak thing but real none the less.

Freezing weather in Europe and Alaska, while the Mid Atlantic is so mild that trees are budding and daffodils are punctuating the ground a month or so early. We are dealing with spring like tornadoes in the South with a tropical spin off of Key West aiming at tropical mischief in the Florida Keys. And, now a possible subtropiocal it's gonna Zipline itself NE across South Florida?

Maybe there is something to all of this 2012 nonsense ;)

Sweet Tropical Super Bowl Dreams,

Bobbi

Illusions in the Caribbean? Florida Pay Attention . . Subtropical Possibilities Coming Your Way

2012-02-05T12:07:00.000-08:00

Track:

A funky sort of illusion down in the Caribbean today. A swirl that is spinning south of Florida off the NW coast of Cuba.

Isn't it nice to know that while you are watching the Super Bowl specials the people at the NHC are watching the tropics... even in February...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-rgb.html

The area in question is already been given the status of an Invest and is known as 90L which may or may not become a Sub-Tropical Storm before it hits South Florida.

Or it may come in as heavy rain and strong winds, but amazingly it has a neat, small circulation right now and a 30% chance of getting named storm status..or in this case subtropical storm status..

I'm not making this up..

A similar system came up from the Caribbean in February of 1952.

Stay tuned... and never say never if you live in South Florida!

Besos Bobbi

Busy Day... Coldest Temps Ever Recorded in Alaska... 3.2 Quake in Va...again and Nuclear Plant in Illinois Puts Out Steam

2012-01-30T18:24:00.000-08:00

Crazy day in the world of Earth Watching...for the Earth Science Crowd.

That nuclear plant shown above is in Illinois, not far from Chicago as the crows fly and those crows may be inhaling some nuclear steam for the next day or so. The plant, owned by Chicago based Exelon Corp in Byron. An offsite problem caused a power loss which was resolved, but not before the plant vented steam... as it is set up to do in case of a problem.

Good to know the back up generators kicked in...

As steamy as it is at Byron... the coldest temperature ever recorded in the United States was set today in Alaska when it was so cold the thermometer broke when the battery at the weather center went out. So, we aren't sure just how much colder it was but it stopped recording just prior to and still going south... as it approached NEGATIVE 80... that's cold.

Of course, there is an imbalance in the weather world as Alaska is the coldest it has been since 1971 and we can barely get snow in Virgina or Illinois.

It truly is an amazing planet...
http://www.ouramazingplanet.com/2354-alaska-cold-weather.html

While Virginia is low on snow this winter, it's strong on aftershocks and tonight's aftershock was registered 3.2.

Interestingly busy day in the world today from an Earth Science perspective.

I'm wondering if some storm will brew down the road that will mix up the atmosphere a bit and create some balance but then balance is not a word that La Nina seems to know.

Sweet Tropical Dreams..

Bobbi
Ps...an interesting afterthought here is that Alaska has been pretty active geologically the last few days, mild quakes . . . still . . . catches my attention:

MAP 2.7 2012/01/31 00:53:00 62.843 -148.225 57.7 CENTRAL ALASKA
MAG UTC DATE-TIME
y/m/d h:m:s LAT
deg LON
deg DEPTH
km Region
MAP 3.2 2012/01/30 23:39:47 37.947 -77.984 3.0 VIRGINIA
MAP 2.5 2012/01/30 23:11:30 35.883 -117.909 3.7 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
MAP 4.8 2012/01/30 19:56:07 -25.056 -179.881 483.2 SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS
MAP 4.6 2012/01/30 19:38:23 -1.335 137.808 38.2 NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
MAP 4.9 2012/01/30 18:25:21 -2.841 129.546 42.6 SERAM, INDONESIA
MAP 2.5 2012/01/30 17:02:23 36.020 -117.820 2.7 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
MAP 4.6 2012/01/30 16:34:13 -7.093 128.844 149.9 KEPULAUAN BARAT DAYA, INDONESIA
MAP 2.7 2012/01/30 14:58:47 62.215 -145.763 1.3 CENTRAL ALASKA
MAP 2.6 2012/01/30 14:57:48 44.231 -114.137 15.4 SOUTHERN IDAHO
MAP 5.2 2012/01/30 13:20:35 2.030 96.611 38.7 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA
MAP 4.3 2012/01/30 12:33:17 15.867 -93.715 138.0 OFFSHORE CHIAPAS, MEXICO
MAP 3.3 2012/01/30 10:42:01 59.855 -152.955 20.7 SOUTHERN ALASKA
MAP 3.5 2012/01/30 10:34:20 19.061 -64.239 55.3 VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION
MAP 2.5 2012/01/30 09:13:03 59.911 -152.185 123.4 SOUTHERN ALASKA
MAP 2.9 2012/01/30 08:10:46 61.764 -150.318 5.6 SOUTHERN ALASKA
MAP 2.9 2012/01/30 08:09:42 60.348 -152.411 107.8 SOUTHERN ALASKA

Smoke and Haze Become Deadly Combination in Florida - 10 Dead

2012-01-30T07:26:00.001-08:00

It always amazes me that people worry on global terrorism and space invaders, flesh eating bacteria and natural disasters yet they don't worry on the every day dangers such as smoke and fog covering a dark highway in the middle of the night.

They worry on aliens out there who don't like the job we are doing on Planet Earth, yet they don't check the many sites available online before they take a short trip across the state.

Why would you drive fast on a foggy road in the middle of nowhere? And, yet...they do.

Fog in Florida in December is common, not a rare Category Four Hurricane and it is deadlier as people are out on the road racing back to school or cutting across the state on their way somewhere and they don't appreciate the dangers out there the way they hunker down and stay inside when a Category 4 storm is about to make landfall.

I can save more lives on this blog by begging people to check out weather conditions before they travel locally, than ironically warning people to board up for a hurricane in Florida. Go figure... ironic but true.

Read this article and think on it next time you travel and then do a quick check on the web for traffic road and weather conditions before you decide which route to take and when to travel. Speed kills and speed kills absolutely on a smokey, foggy night in the middle of the night.

http://www.toledoblade.com/Nation/2012/01/30/I-75-crashes-in-Florida-
leave-10-dead-18-hurt-1.html

http://www.weather.com/activities/driving/interstate/

While Florida is known for sunny beaches, lightning strikes in Tampa and tropical weather...December and January often bring foggy nights. Add into that mix a nearby brush fire and you have a deadlier cocktail than Camille on the Beach.

Happens frequently, yet people don't seem to worry on it in the same way they worry about sharks swimming offshore near Cape Cod.

www.weather.com has a travel page that allows you to pick your form of travel, your direction on a highway and shows you in details where you need to be careful and not speed.

The State offers sites.

http://www.fl511.com/Alerts.aspx is another site.

One car on the highway was warned by a friend traveling up ahead to slow down because of the poor visibility before they got caught in the traffic jam, seconds before the accident that took the life of the man who was sitting in the car next to them talking to them through their open windows about the traffic delay.

I grew up in Florida, piled into the car at 4 AM in Miami with friends and family headed north towards Disney World thinking "what the heck" or some other words I won't publish here. We drove north thinking it would lift and yet it didn't. It took two hours to get north of Ft. Lauderdale as we slowly made our way northbound waiting for the sun to burn off the worst of it. Mid-Winter Vacation was always marred by foggy trips on the Turnpike. Add in smog and it creates a death toll bigger than a Category Two hurricane.

http://www.alligator.org/news/local/article_0cae3658-4b0b-11e1-b8dc-001871e3ce6c.html

I didn't have to surf the web to know students would be involved on their way back to school.

Steven R. Camps of Gainesville described it as looking like the "end of the world" and so it was for the people in the car next to him who died upon impact in the deadly accident.

http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/01/29/2615070/pileup-on-smoky-i-75-kills-at.html?asset_id=2614739&asset_type=gallery

Again, next time you decide to take a trip in the middle of the night... check out this site or others like it to find out what the possible weather conditions might be. And, sometimes staying over an extra few hours or a day is worth the delay than taking your chances on a foggy road in the middle of the night and hoping some car in a rush behind you is not going 80 mph despite the dangerous road conditions.

http://www.weather.com/activities/driving/interstate/

Besos Bobbi

Solar Storms 2012 & The Northern Lights

2012-01-24T05:09:00.000-08:00

Many have called this year 2012 to be the Year of the Solar Storms. Of course, many said that about last year and yet the storms have gotten stronger and the Northern Lights are being seen further south giving many the chance of a lifetime to view the Northern Lights for themselves, up close and personal ... with their cameras and posting these pics online.

Beautiful pictures of what to many is the Holy Grail and one of those things to do on their bucket list. They are up there with the Taj Mahal and the Great Pyramid's of Egypt or Mayan Ruins. Only problem is...they are harder to arrange to see unless you live in Alaska or Norway. You can book a cruise to the Caribbean or a flight to India but on any given day you may miss a chance to see the Northern Lights, even if you book a long term stay. They either happen or they don't and the forecasted period doesn't allow cheap airfare unless you are a very wealthy person where money is not a problem. I mean you can't just hop on a flight and hope and pray you might get lucky ...can you?

Hey.... the Taj Mahal is not going anywhere so perhaps you'd rather look for a cheap, doable flight to see it instead.

http://www.jetairways.com/

There are a list of Webcams that advertise that you can watch from your computer at home, if that is not the most meteorolgically voyeuristic idea... I don't know what is..

But, give it a try and let me know if you were able to see the Northern Lights tonight on one of them.

http://www.akmining.com/webcams.htm

http://www.asc-csa.gc.ca/eng/astronomy/auroramax/index.asp <---great link i think ;)

http://www.porjus.eu/

http://virtualtromso.no/en/northern-lights/138-live-northern-lights-activity-
and-forecast.html (good overall site with lots of info)

Maybe order in some great Indian food, turn on the heat, relax by the fireplace and watch the webcams online or... go to youtube, lot's of great video ;)Best one I've seen in a long time... beautiful music, sites, definitely want to take that cruise ;)

Another great option ...if you have money... is to take a cruise and hope to get lucky. Some beyond beautiful pics on this page and am thinking if I ever win the lottery (of figure out how to make money from this blog) I may take one of these cruises.

http://www.northern-lights-holidays.co.uk/Northern-Lights-Cruises-2012.aspx

Of course there are people who will blame dropped calls (oops) and migraines and moodiness. Then again... you might just be really unhappy with your life, looking for something to blame it on and need to take a cruise.. (just thinking outloud here) but there is a lot of scientific data to support these beliefs.

http://forum.solarstormwatch.com/index.php?topic=115.0

http://sunlightenment.com//

Either way... somewhere today there will be Northern Lights and there is a good chance based on the predictions of many scientists that this year will continue to be one filled with Solar Storms and more Northern Lights.

In my neck of the woods this morning there is a "Dense Fog Advisory" and people are cleaning up in Alabama still from yesterday's tornadoes. It's snowing in Marquette and it's warm in sunny Florida.

I started a new blog this week to follow how the weather may or may not affect this year's Presidential Elections.

http://electionweather.blogspot.com/

Weather changes everything and I find myself trying often to explain how and why I took so much meteorology along with geography and demography for my degree in International Relations. It's easy to say Russia needed a warm port and Napolean didn't fare well during the deep, long Russian winter. It's easy to try and explain how El Nino became a newstory when it became a famous International Law Case about fishing boats seized off the coast of Peru but still... few people realize how much a rainy day on election day or bad weather while a candidate is making public appearances at the State Fair can make a difference. Weather affects the economy, a hard freeze destroys oranges still on trees or strawberries in the field, the prices go up and people lose their farm or their profit for the year.

Weather, both Space Weather and Earth Weather, changes the course of history time and time again just very few people point it out. I do.

And, I am sure many people reading this blog have had just one day in their life when they meant to go vote in some small municipal election but the weather never cleared up or they were too cold, or they made another excuse about why they didn't bother to vote... happens, it's even happened to me and I'm the type who signed up to vote on my birthday as soon as I turned old enough.

I'm a registered Independent. I vote the man or woman not the party and gave up trying to fit into the Democratic Party or the Republican Party.

So, if you enjoy my blog here... check me out there as well and have a very, beautiful day.

Besos Bobbi

Ps if you live anywhere in the shaded area in the map above... don't forget to bundle up, go outside for a walk (weather permitting) and make a wish and look up and hope to see a shooting star or a glimpse of the Northern Lights.

Night of the Tornadoes... Real Life NOT the Movie

2012-01-23T05:08:00.000-08:00

Word went out last night in the storm chase community that it was going to be a bad night for the South. The worst kind of night actually, as the twisters would swarm through the south under the cloak of darkness and that usually wreaks the most havoc when it comes to loss of life. Last night lived up to it's publicity as there are already two deaths reported in Jefferson County, Alabama.

The news reports this morning from the areas north of Birmingham, small beautiful little towns that have been partially flattened will be heartbreaking. Maplesville, Alabama was under the gun last night or rather very early this morning. Nothing sweet about this mess and nothing unusual in that severe weather is one of the biggest threats we face every day somewhere, anywhere in this country.

This is the region that is going to be reporting damages this morning... Maplesville, not just a name in the news but a place on the map:

We worry on Alien Spaceships and the nuclear bomb in the hand of rogue nations and nasty nations and we worry on politics and primaries but the reality is any given moment on Planet Earth someone is under the gun and their life is about to be ripped apart by fast, forming, sudden, severe weather. This morning it's Alabama, last night it was Arkansas and tomorrow it may come to a town near you.

Atlanta is protected by a cold wedge of air that is delivering gray, rainy, cold weather. No snow, some fog, a lot of SAD for people who like to wake up and see the sunshine. Further up the road in Raleigh the sunrise was punctuated briefly by a touch of mauve before it defaulted back to dreary, gray skies and a foggy commute. Why anyone would want to live in cities this far inland, the sky hidden by a wall of green pine trees and rarely ever getting snow is beyond me. Then again, I'm a beach girl.... Miami Beach, Long Beach, Santa Monica Beach, any beach will do...

Note at the top part of the cold front there is snow, ice... and the bottom part that is dragging it's tale across the south there is rain and severe weather forming. Tornadoes are a natural occurrence, they happen when the warm, hot air from the south moves up and punches into the cold, dry air that is descending and especially in a "warm" winter like this one when a cold front marches across the Deep South.... and you get slam, bam and thank you maam ... Personally, I'd rather have a hurricane or a blizzard than a tornado, but that's me.

You can follow the developing news out of this region on the following links, I may add more later as more news develops but at least the home folk in Atlanta feel they are safe from any damage due to their "cold wedge" however as the temperatures rise and the cold front moves on someone, somewhere is going to get an early taste of what would normally be strong, Spring storms as we are still deep in winter.

To these towns the Super Bowl is no longer a big exciting news story and the Florida Primary is not really relevant. What is relevant is finding the remains of their lives that are now scattered across the landscape.

http://www.abc3340.com/

http://www.myfoxal.com/

As for me....going to take a shower and try and figure out what to do while hiding from the fog and cold air and wondering...strangely, did Stephanie Abrams color coordinate today with the severe weather or was that just a coincidence or was she trying to stay warm this cold, gray morning in Atlanta.

Alexander City... you are under the gun next for severe weather...

Welcome winter.... would have preferred a small Southern Snow Storm not this Spring like mess which makes me wonder....is spring coming early this year?

Besos Bobbi

Ps... if I lived in the Atlanta Metro or anywhere in Georgia I'd keep watching the weather. It seems to me the NWS is hedging a bit on their protective wedge...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/text.php?pil=ATLAFDFFC

"HOWEVER IF
THE WEDGE BREAKS AND DEWPOINTS ARE ABLE TO RECOVER...WE COULD SEE
ISOLATED SEVERE OVER NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF CENTRAL GA EARLY THIS
MORNING. CLIMO WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE WEDGE WILL HOLD BUT WITH THIS
UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP ISOLATED SEVERE IN THE HWO FOR THIS MORNING.
AS FOR LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON."

Hmmmmnnnn looks like a BIG "IF" to me... time will tell and that is why we call it a forecast...

Where's Snow? Ice Storm in NW???

2012-01-19T05:36:00.001-08:00

Seems that SNOW is missing from a good part of the nation this week. It IS snowing mind you, but not where it usually snows.

It's snowing in Seattle where it rarely snows. As anyone who was a baby boomer knows.... it rains in that part of the woods, actually....it rains a lot.

But, this week even the University was closed down...even the library at the university was closed down which is about as rare as it gets.

http://alert.wsu.edu/ <---Bottom line for students... a SNOW DAY

Seattle-Tacoma Airport is closed, no flights in or out and they are hunkering down for a possible ice problem on top of the snow problem.

Here's a good blog about the truth about snow in Seattle:
http://pauldorpat.com/seattle-now-then-archive/a-history-of-seattle-snows-exposed/

Actually............there are Ice Warnings for Seattle this morning and an Ice Event in Seattle is rarer than a Snow Event.

http://www.king5.com/news/local/In-snows-wake-region-for-overnight-freeze-high-winds-137630728.html

Here on the East Coast it's been a strange winter. After last year's ongoing blizzards this year there have been barely a few flakes falling that you most likely missed if you did not take out the garbage in the middle of the night or did not park yourself on the porch waiting to see snow fall. Flakes, small, barely there flakes that did not stick and did not cover the ground.

That strange area between the Mid Atlantic and the South has yet to really see a good snow fall unless it's in the ski resorts where they are pumping snow and keeping the ground covered in white. Neither North Carolina or Virginia have really seen snow, unless you count a few flakes falling in the western part of the state where the mountains reach high into the cold winter sky.

It's all a matter of perspective I suppose.

Seattle got snow. No one should be sleepless in Seattle, they should be either freaking about how to get to work or making snowmen or snow girls.

In the South, people are enjoying sunny blue skies and wearing their flip flops. I took out my white, furry boots the other day expecting it to be cold enough to wear them and threw them back into the closet for when I am up north next. Yes, I did wear a sweater but I did take it off about an hour later after the last "really strong cold front" pushed through into Miami.

I keep checking the 10 day forecast for North Carolina and New York... barely a flurry and no forecaster is putting his reputation on the line forecasting that event long range.

Meanwhile, the snow in Seattle will move east and Chicago will look more like Chicago than it did the other day when people were out jogging around Lake Michigan in shorts.

We have crossed that bar of January 15th and well into winter and yet... nothing much has changed... we are still waiting for snow to show on our side of the country.

As for me... I've traveled a lot for family events and enjoyed a beautiful day away from everyone and everyone thing at Rock Reef Resort in Key Largo, truly a pristine paradise for those who want to get away from it all and breathe and stare out at the ever changing watery landscape.

Watched a strange, quiet sunset, stared at the water for a long, long time and was cold enough at midnight to put on a sweater when I went out to look at the moon. Trees were down from the wild storm that passed through Key Largo and took the top off of the Manderlay's new oceanfront dining area. More on that later... but today's post is not about severe weather in the Keys but snow missing in action in my neck of the woods and the other part of the woods is buried in snow.

So....where ever you are Snow.. (probably hiding in Alaska with Superman in his Icy Fortress not ready to deal with prime time emotions).... I miss you. Miss you a lot.

If I'm gonna be up north and it's gonna be this cold... I want to look snow in the face, eye to eye and feel it wrap itself around me, taste snow on my tongue and dance with the storm.

Still waiting... still holding on.... and wearing layers and memories to keep me warm.

Sweet Dreams of Snow... Bobbi

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zUQ4-ZuEfwE&feature=related

I Dream of Snow...and a Good Dolphin Draft Day

2012-01-03T03:51:00.000-08:00

Sitting here in North Carolina and headed back home to Miami very soon and thinking how somehow it does not feel fair for a place to be 28 degrees and for it not to snow.

Bone Suckin Sauce yes...bone cold weather...no. But, bone cold is what we have across most of the East coast this morning.

Sitting here texting with my brother in Miami who is waiting for the cold temps and am thinking it somehow is not fair to go home to the sun and have it as cold as it is up north.

People in Miami have, by the way, stopped talking on how we crushed the Jets playoff hopes and moved on to the weather again.

We always talk weather in Miami, we don't get a lot of up north weather but we talk about it a lot. We long for those days when we can take out our boots, our jackets and dress up like Wintertime Barbie Dolls in leather boots with five inch heels and layers that will come off as the temperatures climb around noon. I remember a day when I was in school and I wore a "maxie skirt" over a "mini skirt" and a fun jacket over a tee shirt finished off with really sexy boots. I began unbuttoning the "maxie skirt" button by button until I took it off completely, ditched the coat and ended up walking home barefoot. So much for a Miami cold front....

Sometimes, we get longer cold spells.

This is the first real cold front they have had up in Raleigh this winter. A little flirting with the 30s but mostly mild. The coldest day I have had this season so far was a Friday night in North Miami Beach, went for a walk with my best friend and daughter and a cold front came through, winds gusting the way they do in Miami the night the front blows through and I was freezing. Thinking this Friday night on the canal is going to feel the same way though the front will have backed off a bit.

The Dolphin really didn't crush the Jets season, the Jets crushed it themselves when they did not secure a place for themselves. That's the reality of life... either you put the game away and tie up the playoffs or you hope for three teams to win and you to beat your division rivals on the last day of the regular season.

Football is a metaphor for life and you either get it or you sit wondering what happened to your life and your play off dreams.

You settle for a penny and a penny is all you get. You set your sights low and accept mediocre and you end up hoping next year will be better than this year... and yet it won't be unless you do something to change things. As a Dolphin fan I've been there hoping two teams will lose and we would beat the next to the best team in football on the last Sunday of the season. Rarely works...by the way. That's not how winners play, winners play to win every game, every week, all year.

You settle for a washed up quarterback rather than trading up to grab a winner or settle for a player who never really made it with some crummy team when they were drafted in the first or second round two or three years ago.

Football is like life.. you got to know when you have a gem in front of you and guard it with your life and not let it get away from you. You have to tell em you love em... you have to play to win, not watch from across the room wishing you could go for who you really want rather than dancing alone.

There are no second chances sometimes, it's not baseball... no double headers and only so many games and then the season is over.

Take a chance, go for the right player, the player you really, really want and believe in him and spend the big money and hope like hell he can connect with his receivers and the fans start showing up again and the money keeps rolling in. Doesn't have to be a quarterback, can be a good receiver, coach.... kicker. Watched Arizona win the other day with one of our cast off kickers. We let a lot of good players get away over the years, it's time for that to stop. Personally, I think we need to get rid of Jeff Ireland. How are we ever going to get something different, with the same person picking the flowers for dinner? Hmmmnnn??? I mean seriously? The man would come in last in the Iowa Caucus and has more baggage than a wagon train but we are letting him pick our new coach? Makes no sense...

So... as I listen to Sting sing "I dream of rain" I am really dreaming of snow... wishing I could see snow... at least once this year. Got weddings to go to and parties to attend and unfortunately Iowa and New York are not on my dance card the next few months... what's a Miami girl to do when snow is not on her dance card?

I don't know the answer, except to keep on dreaming, keep on wishing and hoping the Fins pick a good coach who knows how to make the most of his team and who refuses to settle for mediocrity and is given a wallet that is wide enough to buy the best players available.

Speaking of someone who knows where the sun shines the sweetest... congratulations to Lebron and his high school girlfriend and the mother of his children... seems they are getting married. Not sure what took him so long, but well he's a Capricorn and I guess he wanted to be really, really secure before he popped the question ;)

Sweet Tropical Dreams Miamians... gonna dream on snow for a few months until the tropical season returns again.

Bobbi
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/breaking/sfl-miami-heat-lebron-james-s010112,0,5271814.story

In a Sting sort of mood today.... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b-yHU8T61cA

No Snow For Christmas? Blame it on Kids Asking Santa for an iPad

2011-12-22T04:59:00.001-08:00

Used to be, little kids scampered up Santa's lap at the Mall to whisper in his ear to ask him to make it snow on Christmas. Not anymore, this year the most asked for present was not to build a snowman or have a snow fight Christmas morning, but to wake up to an ipad...or an iTouch. Who needs snow when you can go on your iPad and pretend/play with snow games?

http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/snow-fight/id476295219?mt=8

http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/santa-express-for-kids-letters/id476216502?mt=8

Yup, the kids have gone cyber and they no longer want or need the joy of a White Christmas. Seems all those kids standing in line are asking Santa for an iPad.

If you want the real white stuff and it's not forecast in your 4/5ths of the country it might be a long drive to satisfy your appetite for the cold white stuff.

Some links out there that confirm my analysis of the problem:

http://articles.businessinsider.com/2011-11-18/tech/30413868_1_ipad-christmas-gifts-nielsen-survey

http://techland.time.com/2011/11/18/your-kid-probably-wants-an-ipad-for-christmas/

http://forums.appleinsider.com/showthread.php?threadid=

And, by the way...this cannot just be blamed on Christmas, Chanukah bares part of the blame here too as somewhere in those 8 presents this year kids will get many will be i related.

Chanukah apps abound...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FWRccGjvPzY

You want to play dreidel? Enjoy...

http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/igevalt-for-ipad-dreidel-simulator/id485410634?mt=8

So...if you want snow this holiday season and you don't live in Colorado or New England you might want to turn the lights down, light a fire, take out your iPad and play make believe snowfall or pretend you in Pantagonia enjoying snow ;)

http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/patagonia-winter-2011-snow/id471927963?mt=8

Hey...anyone wants to give me an iPad this holiday season you know where I live ;)

What a world we live in, who would think that I would want the same thing as an 8 year old?

Hmmnnnnnn

Happy Holidays. May you find everything you want to buy for others ... be a Layaway Angel or donate to a toy bank for children whose parents can't afford to buy them toys let alone iPads and I hope you are surrounded by love from the people you love the most. And, if you can't be home for Christmas... hope you have an iPad or Tablet to talk to the one you love the most.

Besos Bobbi

Ps... I really wanted snow :(

Enjoy some music, sure you can download it on itunes...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=To0vDizpeRA

Hurricane Hibernation

2011-12-19T04:59:00.000-08:00

So, it appears that I've been on hiatus for the last month. I know, several people have left me several little "here's waldo" sort of notes yet the truth is I didn't realize a month had passed until one of my son's email asking me about it. Fine, I'm back and posting.

Been a long few months and the truth is it was a long, boring hurricane season. I didn't really want to say that ...or maybe I did, but I would have to look back through the season and except for a few short, brief highlights... it was a really boring, non-event hurricane season with pumped up numbers with questionable storms that might never have been upgraded in the days of Bob Sheets.

All the no-neck storms traced the same pre-programmed patterns around a weird high pressure system and curved out to sea with the exception of the wayward Irene (of course, it had to be Irene that would not behave) that crawled onto the beach at Coney Island bringing flooding rains to New Jersey and upstate New York. People died. People died once again from inland flooding, not from the landfall at Coney Island where all the locals hung out waiting for the storm that never really came.

Much can be said on Irene. Much I won't say here. Many would call it an outright miracle, one minute it was there and one minute the bottom half of the storm was gone, the bottom half when the eye was making landfall. It was like someone, something, somewhere hit that storm with man in the moon gamma rays and it simply disappeared transferring it's energy into rain far away from the center.

I have friends who think it was a meteorological miracle from all the people praying for New York City to be spared. I have friends who think it was weather modification. I have friends who think it was simply a tropical storm going extra tropical at a fortuitous time for the people of the five boroughs of New York. Perhaps the ghost of Jimmy Walker looking down over New York and sending his Bowery Boys angels down to make sure nothing happened to his beautiful city. Who knows? Witches in Manhattan turning the storm into nothing but rain bored with turning the lights purple on Christmas Eve?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7164GuyrEQE <-- Beau James, great movie

New York is blessed. That is the truth. And, whoever we owe the Irene miracle to I'll say a thank you! The one storm that got away, off the beaten track of the multiple, meager, barely there tropical storms that traced each other's tracks around the Bermuda High. Not a lot of diversity there... sort of like North Carolina.

Note, after spending time in North Carolina I understand the meaning of the world "hibernation" as all you want to do on grey days is hide under the cover and read or stare up at the sky waiting for it to turn blue again. And, sometimes it does..like today which is a beautiful day but wayyy toooo cold, but I'll be back in Miami soon soaking up the sun and staring at the surf so am going to try to enjoy the cold and my new Victoria Secret's coat that I bought but haven't worn yet. Yup, that's my coat but I bought the black version of it...goes better with my boots. Who wears beige?

As for the 2011 season that has been touted as "busy" it was busy with weak, barely there storms that defied the models which constantly brought them further west than they actually tracked. Either the long term models need some work or they need to learn how to communicate better with their subjects.

Of course, there was Don, Lee, Harvey and Arlene who all got away and formed to the west of the Atlantic storms. Sort of like the 3 Stooges on runaway with a hot blonde actress :) But, I'm not here to talk about Larry, Moe and Curly though you owe Larry for this post I think :)

I'm a Miami girl and for Miami, except for a great day at the beach watching a very weak Irene it was a quiet, boring season for me when I was busy with other things anyway this fall as I watched babies being born, palm trees swaying in the breeze and other things that went bump in the tropical night. Love watching Turkey Hawks from Moe's patio, circling high in the sky while sipping my morning latte.

Winter is upon us, however it's been a crooked sort of winter so far. Cold out west where the El Nino blew up more of a storm in California than any tropical entity blew up in Florida ...go figure. It is just beginning to snow in places like Chicago and New England, real snow not those flakes that flutter down like white butterflies in the night and that melt upon sunrise. There is the briefest reference, more of a whisper in the 15 day forecast of possible snow on January 1st which I would LOVE to see before heading south but doubt that will happen.

I don't do well in the cold. I don't really understand how people up north do it or why they do it. Even the trees hibernate like the dogwood outside my window that looks more like a tumbleweed in the desert. I have to wear long sleeves and socks, and I really hate wearing socks. I'm not into layers. I'm just not. One of the only things I like about winter up north is that I can see the sky, through the brown, barren trees the sky as it peaks it's way through the pines and I can watch the sun hit the church steeple in the morning and turn it electric white and in the evening I can almost see the sunset and that almost makes it all worth it.

I do understand how people love the seasons... to me they should be like Paris. You visit Paris in the Spring and you go to Vermont in the Fall and the rest of the 50 weeks of the year you sip your Cafe Con Leche while looking down from the balcony on the Intracoastal Waterway and watch the sailboats and yachts moving about and you watch the clouds and the ocean and feel the tropical breeze ruffle your hair.

I'm sort of out of place in winter the way the white bow in her hair here seems out of place and why is she singing about Ipanema and the beach when she looks like she's in a snow lodge in Colorado in the early 1960s? Hey, she may not see now...but if he keeps watching, trust me one day she will see :) Great song. Some of the most beautiful songs were written in the 60s in all genres from Rock N Roll to Brazilian Jazz to Music Themes. Hey it's not Limp Bizkit, but it works for me today.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rzw1xEcQg4Y&feature=related

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Girl_from_Ipanema

Listen...I appreciate the weather everywhere, though I enjoy winter in Iowa and New York more than I do North Carolina. I'm not a seasons girl, I'm a tropical girl but if you are going to have winter and cold weather you ought to have snow... you know?

So, I'm back. No more hibernating.

Kim Jong is dead in Korea. Finally... now what?

Well, further South in Australia ... storm, starved storm trackers are watching..

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

There has been the possibility of a small, midget like cyclone forming off the North coast of Australia around Christmas Day if the models are right. They call them midget, it's a meteorological term not a political statement. All eyes are on Christmas sales and Iowa where Mitt Romney is trying to wrestle the nomination away from Newt and Ron Paul and it sort of feels like the 3 Stooges with Bachman a long for the lone female part in this political movie that has had way too many pre-release, publicity debates.

I'm back. I'll be posting again. Nice little hiatus I started back when Mercury went retrograde and I was busy with other things hiding from writing this and other things I should be working on (never end a sentence with a preposition) and well...will do so.

I owe a special thanks to my friend, my "master" lol because what's a muse without a master? Thank you because you really do understand and know me the way I need to be understood in a way that makes me giggle and stare and come to life in any weather. Merci Boucoup or as they say in Sri Lanka...Stuh-tee ;) Still smiling, trying to get the song Shadow of Your Smile out of my mind so that I can get on to doing the things I need to do today.

The real question of the day is whether the Pope lives long enough to get to Cuba, before Castro dies or after? Heard the Pope is weak, I wish him well and I wish Cuba a Castro free era and that's my "wish" for the day.

Enjoy the scenes from Bell, Book and Candle...a great movie to watch anytime but especially this time of year and especially if you love New York and I do.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IF82k06DXSA

Besos Bobbi
Ps Thanks for the music and inpsiration... and thanks Levi for the nudge and thank you God for the beautiful blue sky today and my new warm coat and for the melodies dancing in my head.

50/50 chance in the Atlantic for Development.. maybe...

2011-11-20T06:26:00.000-08:00

Why do they do that? 50% I mean no one says 54% chance do they? It's always a nice round number. I'm thinking there's probably a 57% chance of some Heinz 57 sort of storm forming out there. Not really a storm.. not really prime time. Maybe it will bluster up enough rain and wind to get some late season designation but in any other season it would just be a lot of wind and rain out in the central atlantic.

In one of those moods... it won't stop raining and my plans for the morning included a long walk on Hollywood Boulevard up to the circle, around the circle and back again. The way it's raining I wouldn't make it to the end of the block without getting soaked. Nonstop flow of training rain coming in from the East with strong winds and small breaks of maybe 4 or 5 minutes at the most between them. To my north it's dry, to my south it's dry. Just training in one by one over my house.

Oh well, it's not the end of the world. I can walk later or I can dance later. I just want to see some blue skies and warm Florida weather before I have to go up north for a bit :( where it is gray all day and freezing cold and I have to put clothes on.. you know sweaters over shirts (ew) and coats and socks... I'm a tee shirt sort of girl and prefer them soft and flimsy not made for cold weather.

Either way the NHC is closely watching this system with one eye open and one eye closed. You can almost hear the yawn at the end of the discussion:

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS.

Listening to old Eagles tunes interspersed with Karen Carpenter (which is something I never do... usually would prefer lying on a bed of nails than listening to old Carpenters songs...) and looking for the right song to fit my mind.

Wrong Hollywood, but a good song....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JVcXuKxNwks&feature=related
(classic version)

With regard to the tropics the last week or so there hasn't been much to write or tweet about. Here in Hollywood, Florida helping out one of my kids and enjoying life but.... thinking if I was in North Miami Beach I'd be able to walk on the canal this morning.

Losing all the highs and lows ... ain't it funny how the feeling goes.....desperado... song stuck in my head while I am trying to write something deeply topical about the tropics.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iDNtqy0zjJA&feature=related <--- sigh

So, being the Miami girl I am... I am going to put on some Gloria Estefan music and dance inside in the AC and maybe go take a tribal fusion bellydance class later or go find some sun on the boulevard or the boardwalk.... shake it up... come on baby shake your body do that conga...

Gloria dancing on the beach in Miami -----> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eH_u0IzEMsY&feature=related

Besos Bobbi <---- me saying chow for now :P

Ps... Fins game at 1... be there or be a Jets fan!

Subtropical Storm Sean ... Going Tropical

2011-11-08T07:58:00.000-08:00

Sean is currently in transition between Subtropical and Tropical. At the moment he is like half a storm. Tropical on the top, Subtropical on the bottom. Like one of those machines that allows you to have both chocolate and vanilla in the same cone. Mind you he is a tropical dessert that is very far away from land out in the Atlantic between the Bahamas and Bermuda.

It seems from the way the discussion is written at the Hurricane Center than they will update on the next advisory IF he has finished the transition.

He is currently moving erratically or just slowly bobbing about. Official movement is 2 mph North.

The big question is how much this affects Bermuda.

Secondary bonus for beach goers and surfers who like big waves is high surf on the beaches of Florida.

It's really a moot point if it's tropical or subtropical. It's a complicated bar a storm has to reach depending on the wind field and how much it works it's way down to the surface and other discussion that is not that important. If you are a ship at sea you need to know it's out there no matter if its tropical or subtropical. Somehow, being "Tropical" makes it more "real" to us watching at home on our computers or reading advisories on our cellphones I suppose.

Have a beautiful, breezy day if you live in South Florida. The winds are dying down, but the palm fronds are still moving about making it a picture perfect day in the Tropics.

Besos Bobbi

Coming together Gale Center vs Subtropical?

2011-11-07T18:24:00.000-08:00

Really coming together here and forming a nice roll. Will be interesting to see what they do as it seems to be coming together here.

Loop:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif

Track:

Also...some great info on www.flhurricane.com on a system in the Mediterranean ....which is rare but then this has been a rare year weather wise. Good info on how rare this is ...worth reading.

Picture posted from their site:

Keep watching...

Sweet Tropical Dreams

Bobbi

Something Happening... Subtropical Storm Forming?

2011-11-07T13:54:00.000-08:00

Seems so .... stay tuned. Most of the models take it out to sea though there may be some strong surf and high winds along the beaches of Northern Florida.

Red Circle. 60% chances of forming.

Already high surf advisories far from the storm ...

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
421 AM EST MON NOV 7 2011

FLZ047-054-059-064-141-147-090000-
/O.EXT.KMLB.SU.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-111109T0000Z/
/O.EXT.KMLB.RP.S.0007.000000T0000Z-111109T0000Z/
SOUTHERN BREVARD-INDIAN RIVER-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
NORTHERN BREVARD-
421 AM EST MON NOV 7 2011

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY...
...RIP CURRENT RISK NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

* TIMING...ELEVATED NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH
A LARGE SWELL TO GENERATE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

* IMPACTS...LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 6 TO 8 FEET ALONG THE COAST
WILL CREATE VERY ROUGH AND DANGEROUS SURF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AT
THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES. DOMINANT LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL
ALSO KEEP A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS. MODERATE BEACH EROSION
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE
THROUGH TUESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING LARGE AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...
RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH EROSION. EVEN EXPERIENCED SWIMMERS
CAN BE KNOCKED DOWN BY THE FORCE OF LARGE BREAKING WAVES. IT IS
RECOMMENDED TO NOT ENTER SURF...UNTIL THE LARGE OCEAN SWELLS
SUBSIDE LATER THIS WEEK.

As they say... "developing story, stay tuned"

Next name on the list:

Sean

Besos Bobbi

Nothing Happening

2011-11-01T05:29:00.001-07:00

I'm beginning to feel like Annie here in South Florida. Will the sun really come out tomorrow? Will it stay out? What about today? The awnings are dripping raindrops, but the sun is peaking out as well. Every day starts the same and every day ends the same. It feels more like Monsoonal May than frisky November.

Official word from the NHC is no tropical development anytime soon.

Will we see a stray November storm or two? Maybe. Anytime you have frontal boundaries dangling across tropical waters you risk the chance that something will spin up. November storms are usually weak but bring the chance of tornadoes and other windy weather with them.

This is the official line below.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 011131
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE NOV 1 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Stay tuned and keep watching the tropics is what I say...

Besos Bobbi

Winter Whispers Hello Up North, Rain and Severe Weather In Miami

2011-10-30T19:48:00.000-07:00

Still raining in South Florida.

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Metro.aspx?region=mia

You know it's funny. When you look at the satellite image we seem to be on the edge of the rain. When you look at the radar, it l oops like it will never go away.

The power was sketchy on Saturday, it flickered a lot and for some neighbors down the block it was off. FPL trucks were in the area all day doing work. But, in general it was a nice rainy day. I sat outside on the covered, screened patio with a cup of Nespresso and a few cookies watching the rain fall. Listening to it. Loud, steady, heavy drops in a never ending flood of rain. Nothing more, though the skies for a while were purple and there were a lot of funky, cloud debris sort of fake funnel clouds. Not really funnel clouds but some definite circulation going on just above the surface.

In New York, where some of my kids live....they got snow. Really snow. A lot more snow than they figured on. My youngest daughter saw snow flakes falling for the first time. Heaviest snow fall in some parts in history, or at least since they've been keeping track. The snowfall during the Civil War is not recorded with the records. New England got snow...sorry about that. Winters here or rather there.

In Miami the Fins lost again . . . .

There was a Tornado Warning down in Kendall, but nothing here. This is what our local weather warnings look like:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
855 PM EDT SUN OCT 30 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SOUTH MIAMI...KENDALL...

* UNTIL 945 PM EDT

* AT 853 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR PERRINE...
MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 70 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
PERRINE...
PINECREST...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Maybe tomorrow this frontal boundary will clear out. It definitely did NOT make it down to Cuba.

Nothing else is new, everything is status quo. No news is good news?

It was a blustery, beautiful day as we walked around getting some fresh air and dodging the raindrops.

Down by the Yucatan there is some rain but I am not going to even look at it tonight. The NHC says "nothing doing" and I'll go with that.

So, button up that overcoat if you live in Upstate New York or New England because winter has whispered hello this weekend.

Sweet Tropical Dreams...and remember tomorrow is a brand new day ;)

Bobbi

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v-pEOUbr9yo

NHC Tracking Vanishing Center as Rina's Rains Track Towards South Florida

2011-10-28T06:58:00.000-07:00

This feels so Deja Vu of Irene 1999 that no matter how many times I close my eyes and open them again I think to myself I've seen this scenario before.

Look at this loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-ft.html

It shows a MTE (Mass Tropical Ejection) headed NE from the tip of the Yucatan towards South Florida. Exactly the way the models showed this would play out about 7 to 10 days ago.

Look at the wider view:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-ft.html

As seen in this picture the circulation center is barely visible over the tip of the Yucatan, however the rain and weather associated with Tropical Storm Rina is moving as an entity towards South Florida caught up in the Southwesterly flow out ahead of a frontal boundary to the North of Florida. There are still Tropical Storm force winds caught up currently in this area and it will most likely affect the South Florida area with some severe weather in the next few days. Stay tuned to your favorite local weather forecasters and pay attention to any NWS bulletins they may issue and stay closely informed on changing weather in your area. The "low level center" that the NHC was tracking may be dying out.... but the weather is not dying out, not yet.

This won't be Irene from 1999. But it could have been and whatever it will be my hope is you are watching the local weather and not ignoring it because you hear that Rina died a quiet death down on the tip of the Yucatan and then you get heavy flooding, your car gets stuck in a parking lot in Aventura and strong winds blow your patio furniture around in an unconfirmed tornado.

Watch your local weather:

It shows Rina or the remnants of Rina surging NNE to NE towards South Florida caught up in the strong SW flow that is riding out ahead of the weak cold front that is going to bring out temperatures back to a slightly less balmy 72 degrees at night vs 75 at night.

Google Weather for 33162 my home zip code:

81°F | °C Fri Sat Sun Mon
84° 73° 79° 72° 79° 74° 80° 72°
Partly Cloudy
Wind: SE at 5 mph
Humidity: 84%

Do you see a cold front moving through South Florida?
No. That's one of those "our temperatures are a bit milder from a weak frontal passage"

For 33162: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Miami&state=FL&site=MFL&lat=25.77&lon=-80.2

To change that to your local area, put your zip code into the top and get your local forecast.

Hazardous Weather Outlook should be clicked on as well.

For instance mine says this:

"FLOODING: THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH MAY LEAD TO MINOR URBAN
STREET FLOODING."

Yes, some people do pay attention to their local forecasts and the NWS. Unfortunately, not enough do as they check in to see what the NHC said in their advisory and then they go back to their favorite cable channel or watch the last 3 episodes they missed of their favorite show. We were trained to check the latest advisory and when they say it is dying out and being downgraded we go "oh, guess that's that" but that is not always that's that. There is often more to the story.

Do you see a vortex down near the tip of the Yucatan going southbound? No. I do see weather from 97 trying to pull together but having a difficult time and a high aloft that could possibly help 97 come together as a named system but I don't see Rina's lower or mid level vortex. I'm sure it's down there somewhere on the visible, a wisp of a swirl that the NHC is going to keep tracking as they hand off the mass that is/was Rina to the NWS to forecast.

Official Track Forecast for Rina:

This is silly guys. I'm sorry. I call it as I see it to quote an old weather friend.

South Florida is going to get deluged with the remnants of what will be down graded but what is the remnants of Rina and someone is going to get very wet and somewhere it's gonna get very windy. Where exactly I don't know, because weak systems like this spread out over a larger area than if she was a neat Category 1 storm with a clearly defined center.

And, since my purpose here is to talk to my friends in the South Florida area I'm saying this:

Just because Rina is officially downgraded (or isn't) we will get a very rainy weekend. We as in everywhere from Tampa/Orlando south down to the Keys and including Naples, Miami, Ft Lauderdale/Hollywood and West Palm Beach. At this rate as the front dips a bit south areas to the north of Palm Beach along the Daytona coast may get a lot of weather.

Not a fun beach day unless you like to go to the beach and take pics of the beach.

How fast it will take to go through..not sure.

Let me say I do understand why the NHC is doing what it is doing and saying what it is saying. It is how they work and they work by many rules that they have to stand by. I don't. I tell it the way I see it and I am either right or wrong. I do not have to answer to a lot of higher ups. Either you keep reading my blog or you don't. I'm giving good information you need in an informative and often entertaining way or I am not.

Line from NHC at 8AM:
..RINA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/280836.shtml

"THE RAGGED APPEARANCE IN RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE SMALL CIRCULATION OF
RINA MAY ALREADY BE SUCCUMBING TO THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. SOME MID-LEVEL ROTATION HAS BECOME APPARENT JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE TIP OF YUCATAN...WHEREAS SURFACE OBS INDICATE THE
SURFACE CENTER IS STILL OVER LAND. WITH THE VERTICAL CIRCULATIONS
FORECAST TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN SLOWLY EASTWARD
AND THEN TURN SOUTHWARD BACK OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BY
24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS WELL TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS...TVCN
AND TVCA.

Line from BobbiStorm:

Stay tuned at this point to the NWS because they will be the ones that will be tracking what was or is Rina not the NHC who will pronounce her dead in the water south of the Yucatan shortly... unless something big time changes over there and I doubt it will.

They were tracking the organized center of a system, not a "weather mass" and as we learned in 1999 a Weather Mass can be a real Weather Mess if you are not prepared for it and you don't switch over to the NWS for news when the NHC decides your area is not getting hit by a significant named swirl. We may not be getting a Tropical Storm but we may be getting a very tropical mess.

Point: The hype may be gone, but the weather is still there. Hoping for a sunny day on Saturday and balmy weather but if not don't be taken by surprise.

And, according to the NHC keep watching the other two areas for possible development.

Up north...enjoy the snow.

Down south...enjoy the sunshine and the occasional rain. And, be glad she "fell apart" and the rain you feel on your face tomorrow is not from a Hurricane!

Besos Bobbi

Moral of the story....if you live in South Florida learn Spanish ;) and listen to that little voice down in your gut even if it makes no sense sometimes.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N41gOPiMNVs&feature=fvwrel

Pps...sorry for any mistakes or typos..... not on my own computer but on a really nice big Apple :)

Enjoy as I stroll down memory lane as I listen youtube as my daughter-in-law who I love very, very much makes a smoothie instead of going into labor ;)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KKC3W0awjm0 <---award winner

Ever notice the same actor is in this movie as in Twister :)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y4bxPMPdcBU

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H4eSrpb4SDU (really in the mood for this movie)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cYpz3abAk98&feature=related :)

Tropical Storm Rita Weakening Slowly

2011-10-27T20:00:00.000-07:00

Tropical Storm Rita is weakening slowly over the tip of the Yucatan as she moves North at 7 mph. This movement is forecast to stop and change directions and go south. Where she was once forecast to go left and then right, now she is forecast to go south again. Eventually she is expected to die out and diminish in intensity over the Caribbean Basin.

Oddly it is pulsing up again and looks better now than it did a few hours ago. I suppose that's an illusion or there is some explanation for it.

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/CaribbeanSatellite.aspx?animate=true

I'm not sure why ... other than November storms often do this dance... she still has an ample moisture supply to the SW of her and I'd think she's gonna rain over areas that don't need rain a little bit longer.

The front is moving very slowly and seems slower every day. When I say slow I mean the dipping south part, not the part that moves west to east. The NE should get really wintry weather.

Here in South Florida we are not expecting any significantly cooler weather for the next several days. Again, as I said the other day I did not see the front zooming through South Florida on Friday...and it isn't. Temps in the Mid 80s during the day, Mid 70s at night. Nice.

Of course in the house here the AC is on really strong and it's cold, cold, cold. Got a pregnant woman here and she likes it cold. Hey I know how she feels... I was pregnant a few times and I kept it set for cold and colder too!!

A few areas to watch but nothing that is going to go pop in the middle of the night so hang back, relax and watch Rina fade slowly away. I guess.

Sweet Tropical Dreams

Bobbi

Hurricane Rina Hanging In.... Forecast to Fall Apart

2011-10-27T08:23:00.001-07:00

Despite being forecasted to fall apart, she has an odd way of pulsing up over and over again. The green on Funktop is back in the center and making me wonder when exactly and why she would be falling apart. Also wondering why she pulses up and down, she's an interesting storm to watch.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

The front is moving but it seems to be more flat than digging and also hangs back and moves east again. Eventually it is forecast to dip down.

Meanwhile, Rina is still down there doing her thing...totally stubborn and tougher than she looks I guess and not budging until she is ready to budge.

Miami is out of the cone. Key West is almost out of danger. At this rate I'm wondering is she will cause Cuba problems or sit down there and then loop back up with the next front. Who knows? The NHC has low confidence still in their long term forecast.

More so a little curious on the increased convection in the wave known as 97 to the SW of her. Now, if he developed the way some models earlier in the week forecasted he would...now that would be something interesting.... time will tell.

Keep watching.... and enjoy the weather wherever you are...

Besos Bobbi

..RINA HANGING IN THERE WITH 85 MPH WINDS...COULD BE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER...

2011-10-26T21:06:00.000-07:00

..RINA HANGING IN THERE WITH 85 MPH WINDS...COULD BE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER...

The above is the official line out of the NHC.

Rina is now forecast to take the lower track and to die out slowly along the north coast of Cuba... somewhere near the cold front seems to now want to die out. Seems both are not long for this world.

Only one model still takes her to Florida. The other models show her diving south down into the Carib or lingering off the coast of Cuba.

And, yet.... they added the big "BUT" with the"could be a little bit stronger" and the encouraging "hanging in there" like they expected her to be down to 75 or 80 mph but alas she is still 85mph. Darn they hit her with all they could, tried mind control and showed her pictures of haciendas near Havana but no she is hanging in there...

Will see. She looks pretty good for a weakening girl. Still some nicely placed greens tonight on the Funktop.

They also S L O W E D down the time frame again and have her barely moving. My problem is that I can barely see the frontal boundary that is supposed to be here tomorrow....

All I see is a nice round storm sitting down there and not much of a frontal boundary anywhere. In theory, aside from upwelling problems the reason she weakens is that the frontal boundary doesn't pick her up and shoot her off to the NE.

I see Rina. I don't see the mean, strong cold front... just yet.

Sweet Tropical Dreams . . .

Bobbi

Miami Still in the Cone as Hurricane Rina Moves WNW @5 with 110 MPH

2011-10-26T06:48:00.000-07:00

Tuesday Morning and Rina is still a Category 2 storm sitting neatly down in the Caribbean in a little pocket of warm water on the ledge of land North of Honduras and just east of Belize moving wnw at 5 mph. Slow, steady movement towards the tip of the Yucatan. She is just sort of swirling down there, dancing her way closer and closer towards those Mexican resorts. She doesn't seem to be in a hurry. Her slow progress is probably beginning to cause some upwelling which lowers the temperature of the water from VERY HOT to HOT to very warm. It could be there reason she has yet to become a Category 3 storm. She still has time though at the moment she seems bound to maintain her status vs a bout of rapid intensification.

Tell you one thing. The NHC took a long, long time before putting out their 11 AM Discussion. I waited on it before posting and rarely do they rarely wait until exactly 11AM to put it out. Basically, it is an update of their 5AM with some good discussion on why she might be weakening and leaving the door open to say that she might not. It's a hard call for anyone to really say just yet and a lot of people keep tuning in to see what's changed and the reality is not much has changed. She looks a bit ragged on the imagery according to one person, another person thinks she looks better on imagery. She has nudged a bit to the north and that was the main change...from due west to wow. The Cone looks the same, an extrapolation really of their 5am graphics package. Good discussion from Beven who does his job well and is enjoyable to read.

"The dynamical models forecast the ridges to the north and west to weaken during
the next 48-72 hours as a trough in the westerlies and associated
cold front move into the Gulf of Mexico. This evolution should
cause Rina to gradually turn northward near the East Coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula. The track guidance is in good agreement on this
part of the forecast...and the new forecast track is similar to the
old one."

I will say I have a problem with the timing. They have slowed down the forward progress of this storm a lot. And, in my mind IF she was catching the front she would move faster than the NHC has her moving. IF she doesn't catch the front... I don't see her getting that far into the Florida Straits unless the front bombs out.... so that is my real question here. Why get her that far north and then move what seems to be due East when the discussion has been that the front would move down into Cuba...in which case she would not be going due East at 7am on Monday. I am sure that it makes sense to people who know a lot more than I do and they are again averaging out models and extrapolating and they have to answer to a much larger audience than I have here but that is my problem with the current cone.

I'm still in the Cone Zone in the northern part of the bubble.

Actually, when you consider how many really excellent waves were unable to come together earlier in the season to even Category 1 status what she is doing down there is pretty amazing.

Official wording shows that the NHC most likely believes she will be more like Floyd from 87 and NOT like the Wilma that we remember vividly in South Florida. Note how similar the two forecasts are that call for South Florida to have stormy weather but not hurricane weather.

Text from the NHC Discussion this morning:

AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...SHOW
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IN THAT TIME FRAME. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWS ONLY A SLOW EASTWARD
MOTION NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS REASONABLY CLOSE TO THE
LATEST GFS TRACK. IT IS WORTH REPEATING THAT THERE IS GREAT
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE RINA WILL BE LOCATED BY THE WEEKEND.

Text from Miami Marine Forecast:

FRONT THAT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE THU AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY REACH FROM THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI NIGHT THEN BEGIN TO
INTERACT WITH HURRICANE RINA CURRENTLY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN
SEA. RINA IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO 20.5N 87.0W THU
AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND TURN NE TO NEAR 21.8N
86.6W LATE THU NIGHT...23.5N84.5W LATE FRI NIGHT...THEN TURN E
AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 23.5N 83.0W LATE SAT...AND
23.5N82W LATE SUN.

Models are similar but still split on whether she is able to withstand the Cold Front that will move down into the Gulf creating tremendous shear and which may blow her apart or whether she will just bobble around down there and stay on the maps for weeks down the road. Could she really do a small little loop, fall apart and then reform strong again down in the Caribbean vs zooming NE towards and across Florida? Waiting to see this drama play out.

Sort of like life. Somethings in life you just can't rush. You have to wait and see how they turn out. And, while you are waiting may I suggest listening to some good music, sipping some good espresso and enjoying the feel of balmy, breezes off of Biscayne Bay. Now, if you are reading this from Houston or Hungary then find a spot where you love to delight and enjoy some delicacy and check back later.

Models at 11 pm last night are not very different from models at 5 am. Still an either or scenario.

11PM

5AM

Note the NHC seems hard pressed to decide which has a better handle on Rina...the GFDL or the HWRF. Note none of the models have her dying out where the NHC shows her coming to a halt. The HWRF shows her diving south as a reaction to the high from the cold front which doesn't grab her. That would be a temporary movement and if she maintained herself she could regroup later as that cold high air will only be a temporary thing in the land down under. The GFDL has her predictably getting caught up in the cold front and zooming across South Florida out into the Atlantic. Now...which is more logical and more in step with climo for an October storm? Another question...is this an October storm or a November storm in October. IF she is a November storm

My brother wants to know how we are supposed to believe the forecast when they have been wrong with this storm already a few times. A lot of "IFS" in the forecast. IF it hits the mountains in Cuba... IF it doesn't catch the front... IF it stays in the Passage... a lot of IFS. We are basically waiting to see how much shear really builds up and how it affects her. If we are already into November from a Climo perspective she will sit down there and not catch the front and do weird kinky things. IF she is a true October system she will grab the front the way the GFDL shows and we will see a US landfall.

October Storms:

Snow in Denver:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVwwp3sXAro&feature=youtu.be

As for me... I'm going in the shower and then going to go about my day peeking back and forth to see just what if anything has changed. Been fun learning how to use an Apple from one of the best teachers around with hands on experience while I sit here waiting and watching and enjoying the Cafe Con Leche and the tropical breezes in the backyard.

I will say one thing. We took a walk last night not the Boardwalk in Hollywood and the breeze was really strong. Almost chilly and it swung around out of the north from an onshore wind for a bit and I thought it reflected well the battle going on in the Modelsphere as we have definitely gone zonal and cold fronts are sprinkling snow early this winter. Easy to say that the cold front might not grab her but if she stays down there....well things spin up on the edge of old frontal boundaries all the time which would lead me to believe she would only be playing possum down there waiting to spin up again should she not take the easy road out of the tropics. As always, time will tell...

Will end this with the thought that Rina is a storm that sits in a small pocket of tropical air above warm water and is able to continue maintaining her strength despite everything else going on around her. To the north there is dry air, there is shear nearby and yet she keeps on spinning at Category 2 strength. She might make it to Cat 3, she might not. She will eventually slow down and diminish in intensity. But..... unlike other weaker waves that could not become a hurricane this season, she is doing her thing even if it is in a small corner of the warm Caribbean. Don't count her out. Will she be Wilma or go flat like Floyd? I don't know for sure though the NHC seems to think she will fall apart past like Floyd once the big bad cold front from the north moves her way.

Leaving you with a video of my daughter Dina hooping in her small, but very cute kitchen. I get nervous when she does it in my living room... I suppose I should not worry because if she can hoop in her cute, little kitchen which is about the size of Holly Golightly's kitchen I suppose she can hoop anywhere .... and so can Rina for a while.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WIja0juvlnI&feature=colike

Besos Bobbi ;)

Ps...note that is my term Modelsphere. I want credit for it!

Hurricane Rina.... Steady Solid Intensification

2011-10-25T19:30:00.000-07:00

Hurricane Rina is currently looking beautiful with excellent outflow in all directions. She has been under minimal shear and yet her appearance doesn't show many ill effects from the shear.

Another interesting thing about Rina is she seems to be moving left of the program, she's missing her marks and they may have to adjust her once again at 11. Will see. At 8PM they said she was meandering. She is still meandering westward. Then again many of the models showed her moving west and then eastward.

"..RINA MEANDERING WESTWARD...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TONIGHT..."

Look at the overall, bigger view of Rina with regard to the whole basin. Everything to the north of her blows off to the east. Where she goes over the next 48 hours will make a big difference where she goes in 90 hours. More so...where the front goes, how far it dips and how strong it is in relation to how strong Rina is after she does the Tango in Cancun. And, what if she hits south of Cancun and bounces off and bobbles around in the Caribbean longer and not taking her trip NE? Some models do have Rina doing a loop and staying down in the Carib until Lord only knows when. To complicate matters....the system to the ESE of Rina known as 97 has model support for intensification as Rina sort of falls apart. A really big "Hmnnnnnnnnn" which means got to see that one to believe it but hey it's October in the tropics...anything is possible. The water in that part of the Carib is by the way........REALLY HOT!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

Would Rina really fall apart suddenly as some models show or intensify rapidly? She is about to tap into more moisture to her SE that should give her some more juice.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif Juice Loop

As of 11pm there is still a lot of indecision and low confidence in what Rina will or won't do in the long term. Her present movement is to the west at 3 mph (no longer meandering, slowly moving west) and she is forecast to be a Category 3 storm at any time. There are two roads to travel. One road takes her NE towards Florida by riding up the frontal boundary. The other road keeps her looping around down in the Caribbean.

What do I think?

I think if this front is going to sweep through Cuba then it will pick her up. The discussion below is from the official discussion of the Caribbean Weather Outlook.

A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM WESTERN CUBA TO 12N84W SAT AND SUN. LOW PRES MAY FORM
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN THU AND LINGER THROUGH
SUN.

Hard to say for sure. One thing I can say for now is she looks about as good as it gets and shows little sign of problems from the shear that was over her today. Amazingly, beautiful storm to watch spin on satellite imagery.

Time will tell... but what will tell soonest is the Gulfstream Jet that is taking samples of air around Rina and far away from Rina to which way the wind is really blowing in the atmospheric river that guides tropical systems. With the info from that wonderful forecasting tool the next model runs should clear up the long term picture.

For now...if you live in the South Florida area expect very gusty winds on Friday Night and Saturday Morning. Gusty as in very breezy, not quite sustained tropical storm force winds but a stormy period. Now, IF she comes further to the north we could have a real problem. Anyone south of Tampa should pay attention to this storm...that is the official line. Key West and Havana should get serious storm conditions.

More tomorrow when we get back good info from the Gulfstream Jet.

Sweet Tropical Dreams

Bobbi

Ps...Though the official track is to the south of my location I am very in the cone zone tonight...

More models call for a South Florida Hit from Hurricane Rina

2011-10-25T11:10:00.000-07:00

More and more of the better models are making a case for some sort of landfall in the State of Florida from Rina, whereas last night the harder right turn out to sea was in play. I suppose this can change by tonight again, which is why we keep watching. I mean you have a Hurricane that is going Major very soon, Category 3 and it has Florida in it's sights on the 5th day. Not something to ignore.

Of course some of the models take Rina in a small circle, a little loop in the Yucatan Passage however the stronger the hurricane the more likely she will want to go poleward (NORTH) and that is what most of the models are picking up on today.

This model in particular makes me nervous, nervous in that it would impact a lot of people even as a weak storm. Of course we also had a weak Floyd back in 1987 that made the same trek up out of the Caribbean and didn't do much damage in the Miami area. Wilma and Floyd, both similar storms for this time of year.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2011102512-rina18l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

There is a reason that climo wins almost every time. It's the average of climate history over the long term, averaged out into the most likely pattern. Sometimes it loses, usually it wins. Time and time again it wins out.

Check out Wilma, a similar storm around the same time of year. A great analog storm.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Wilma

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Floyd_(1987)

Tell me why this storm would not do exactly what Wilma did track wise or Floyd from 1987?

Another strange Fujiwawa sort of track from another model, extremely....highly unlikely but worth watching:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrf-noaahfiptc2.cgi?time=2011102506-rina18l&field=
Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Not likely as I don't see the newer storm killing off Rina, but it is fun to watch in a funky funny way.

Another problem with the newer models is the TIMING in that the models are speeding up and now taking Rina towards Florida faster and faster. This could be based on the fact that she is a stronger storm and more likely to be grabbed by the frontal boundary than a weak storm. However, the front does not seem to be diving so much...which is maybe why the NHC is actually giving wind probabilities for cities up the coast from Tampa to Jacksonville. Seems far out to me considering yesterday we were talking on her taking a hard right turn south of Cuba eastward.

Another problem is that the NHC seems not to feel that they have a good handle on her long term track (out past 3 days) and that's the part of the track that may or may not affect South Florida.

It is highly unlikely, though possible, that Rina will come to South Florida as anything more than a strong Tropical Storm or Category 1 Hurricane. That is not carved in stone mind you and we are talking Hurricanes not pumpkins.

So, keep watching..... stay tuned and enjoy the sunshine and the tropical breezes because it won't last forever.

BOTTOM LINE: What do I think will happen?

I think it's very likely that Rina will follow Floyd and Wilma's general path towards the State of Florida. She might enter Florida Bay after slicing across the Florida Keys, trek her way across the Everglades and exit south Florida somewhere from the Dade/Broward Line to Port St. Lucie depending on her angle of assault. Yesterday I thought maybe the Florida Straits, now I am thinking the front is not strong enough and she's stronger than she looks. Think Tropical Weather if you live in South Florida on either coasts and for sure the Florida Keys. Also, depending on the timing, tides...she could make a real wet mess flooding out whichever Key she decides to cross on her way towards Florida. If this new trend verifies.

Lastly, the NHC stayed conservative yesterday with their timing on Rina. I mentioned this. All the other models had her moving faster and the NHC played it conservative. Not sure how they will play it at 5pm for the big nightly news shows.

Either way enjoy this New Age Romanian Gypsy song ;)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WP-fPKpFwig <-----NRG Band Rina Rina (great beat, love it)

Hurricane Rina Still Going Strong...watch and wait mode

2011-10-25T05:35:00.000-07:00

Short post this morning just to say we are in a watch and wait mode. Rina is looking good, very ready to go to the next step however the recon did not find winds to support stronger than a Cat 2 storm. She is a small storm in that her core is small and her accompanied moisture is not large. However, if..a big IF....she merges with the frontal boundary that shape will change. IF she stays down in the Carib moving slow and not rushing to grab the front she might stay there a long time.

So, it's up to Rina. Take the high road or the low road.

The lady or the tiger sort of decision...

Besos Bobbi

Ps....if you live in South Florida do not keep your eyes off of her too long as you just never know for sure but otherwise have a beautiful sunny day!

Hurricane Rina, Grow Houses in Hollywood Florida and the Northern Lights

2011-10-24T20:09:00.000-07:00

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/ft-l.jpg

If you will click on the above link you will see a Hurricane that is rapidly intensifying and on her way to Major Hurricane Status. I could go conservative and say she will be a Cat 2 but that would be lying. I think she will easily go Cat 3 if she continues this process throughout the night.

Beautiful, really.

I'd post a picture, but I'm not on my computer and just writing vs posting pics.

So, this sort of figures. Here I am in Miami, waiting for someone to give birth and watching a rapidly intensifying storm that many models bring this way over the weekend. Now, not only do I not know exactly when she is going to give birth ...while we are impatiently waiting, we also don't know whether or not we will or won't get Hurricane Rina. So typical of my life somehow.

What is wonderfully more typical is that a helicopter hovered over the house this afternoon while we were sitting out on the patio enjoying the beautiful, breezy weather. I made a joke about "what are they looking for a grow house or something??" and it seems I was right. Of course... back in South Florida with grow houses being busted and a swirling hurricane down in the Caribbean and most of the Florida Keys already in the Five Day Cone.

Facts on the storm that are worth keeping in mind... The water where it is right now is really, really hot. Possibly as hot as 85 degrees. She is moving very slowly and she is staying just south of some dry air and shear to her north. As I said the other day, she's like a star QB in a pocket with all the time to find his target. And, what city will be her target is somewhere in the wide, odd shaped cone out of the NHC. First she will go to the left and then she will go to the right. A funky sort of storm I suppose trying to figure out which way to go.

Sort of ironically funny in it's typical funky Florida way. Always some drama going on and yet after the helicopter flew away the sun began to set and paint a picture perfect sunset all coral and gold with touches of mauve mixed in.

Laughing so hard I can't stop coughing. It's perfect. Figures. What next?

In the world of the geologically bizarre there was an earthquake in the Cayman Islands. Moderately small, but big enough to get noticed. And, I'm thinking they are going to get a storm possibly in the same week as an earthquake. I suppose people who do astrocartography would be wondering what goes with the vibes....

Magnitude
4.1
Date-Time
Sunday, October 23, 2011 at 03:23:09 UTC
Saturday, October 22, 2011 at 10:23:09 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location
17.967°N, 81.442°W
Depth
10 km (6.2 miles)
Region
CAYMAN ISLANDS REGION
Distances
147 km (91 miles) S of GEORGE TOWN, Cayman Islands
271 km (168 miles) ENE of Swan Island
376 km (233 miles) W of Montego Bay, Jamaica
874 km (543 miles) S of Miami, Florida

Hmmmnnn.... Anyone know where Miss Cleo is? She might have some good insight....

As for me, I'm watching Rina swirl and strengthen down in the Caribbean while visions of Mitch and Wilma dance in my head. Mostly Wilma.

And, lastly on the Earth Science watch it's worth noting there is a spectacular show of the Northern Lights going on currently as I type this up to the north of me, but as far south as Tennessee, Nebraska, Kansas and who knows where else they will be seen.

http://www.kspr.com/news/local/kspr-ozarks-see-the-northern-lights-20111024,0,3463199.column

Take a trip on www.twitter.com tonight and type in "Northern Lights" and you will see the feed flowing fast, but not as fast as Rina is developing new stronger cells.

I imagine tomorrow morning there will be stories on the end of the world, 2012 and UFO conspiracies of the 8th or 9th kind if this keeps up.

Weather always happens, unusual weather always happens and hurricanes always happen in October in the Caribbean.

Will Rina pull south of Florida and exit stage right across Cuba and the Florida Straits or does she want to leave her mark on history?

If you see red colors in the sky towards the North tonight, anywhere from Tennessee north you might just be seeing the Northern Lights because of a strong Coronal Mass Ejection that hit the Earth's magnetic field this afternoon... just as the Hollywood police were moving in on the 5ft tall marijuana plants growing just down the street from a popular Magnet School a
City Hall.

And, you wonder where Burn Notice gets it's ideas from??? The Nightly News in South Florida ;)

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

Bobbi

Ps... I've lived in Hollywood California.... as much as I love LA I'll take South Florida any day ;)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XgE-Oedaiyk&feature=results_video&playnext=1&list=PL18B675BE5731FCE0

Hurricane Rita.... Deja Vu Wilma?

2011-10-24T13:02:00.000-07:00

Hurricane Rina became a Category 1 Hurricane today as she rapidly intensified from a weak Tropical Storm to hurricane in less than one day. Models take her towards Florida at the end of the forecast package. The question of when and where remains the question. Some of the models show her catching the front and making a sharp easterly turn (which could be over the Florida Straits near Cuba) or over the Keys and exiting over the Miami/FLL area as a weaker storm.

The new model runs will take into account her currently stronger intensity and will hopefully be more accurate. Please note that the NHC has already said at 5pm they currently have low confidence in the model package they are using to forecast the storm. Hopefully, the next model runs will clarify the situation tremendously.

www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=18

Note the NHC time forecast track lags behind all the other models shown in the link above dramatically. I imagine they will have to adjust their timing as the new models keep coming in showing Rina moving towards Florida at the end of the forecast package.

Stay tuned for the next updated package at 11pm. It should be a doozie, a real interesting read.

Climo takes this form towards Florida. Rina is totally typical of an October system catching a cold front out of the Caribbean. It is as typical as it gets. The strength is the question and some models see her becoming a major hurricane over the next few days.

For now...her form is perfect, she is a beautiful storm.

Keep watching.... Bobbi

Now it appears the question is where and when and even more so how strong it will become....

Stay tuned... Bobbi

Tropical Depression 18 Forms in the Caribbean

2011-10-23T18:46:00.001-07:00

Looks more organized than your regular run of the mill depression. Should be Rina by day break if not 11pm.

Where will she go remains the bigger question and not in the short run but in the long run? West or North towards Florida?

Stay tuned...

Sweet Tropical Dreams
Bobbi

Tropical Formation in the Caribbean.... Looks Pretty Good

2011-10-23T06:04:00.000-07:00

I'd say there is a very good chance that the next named storm will form down in the Caribbean today. Maybe tomorrow. It's in a pocket that is ideal for development. If a quarterback had that sort of pass protection he'd be a winner even if he was playing for the Fins... So, why wouldn't Rina form? I don't know. Where would she go? Most likely to the north and then out to sea.. crossing Cuba, south of Cuba, Florida Straits into the Bahamas. Small chance she could visit South Florida... not out of the picture. Suppose it could go west but despite what the models show I don't think so.

Makes sense. Am headed home today so it's time for some tropical action again.

Stay tuned... and enjoy the beautiful weather.

On the other side of the world Turkey just had a strong earthquake that for now is rated at 7.2. That's pretty big. Would imagine it was felt over the whole region pretty good.

As for our tropical system that is spinning pretty good already it officially has a 60% chance of forming and that should be upgraded bit by bit later today.

Besos Bobbi

The Problem with No Name Systems...and the Weather Headed Towards Florida

2011-10-17T05:22:00.000-07:00

Track of No Name System:

The problem with these no name systems that don't fit neatly into a box is that despite all the orange and red circles on the NHC website without the advertisement on the News to stay tuned for the newly formed "Tropical Depression" people just don't take them seriously.

I mean it's not rocket science. Like Pavlov's dog we have all been trained to sit up and go "what?" when there is a system designated with a name or even a number. The words "Tropical Depression" catch the public's attention. Rain in the Caribbean moving towards South Florida can easily be thought of as "hype" and something to just boost the ratings for the local weather and news show.

To think that people pay attention to what the NWS puts out is folly and totally ridiculous. OCD types follow the weather radio, the news, their weather APP and call their friends. The average Joe is busy driving to work, dealing with a petty boss and figuring out how he is going to pay his mortgage this month not worrying on "a very rainy mess headed this way" or the ever popular "regardless of whether it gets a name we are in for bad weather" sort of soundbites.

I'm not saying we know for sure that these people would not have been out there IF the last system that walloped Florida had a name, but there is a good chance that they might not have gone out, gotten lost at sea and lost their grandma had the NHC simply designated last week's storm a named quantity. "Lost" as in she died and it's a miracle that the 4 year old child survived the ordeal by bobbing in an ice cooler in "choppy seas" last week.

http://miami.cbslocal.com/2011/10/10/1-dead-7-boaters-survive-20-hours-
in-choppy-water-off-keys/

I mean again, let's get real. They have named small, weak looking systems out in the middle of nowhere about to die this year and yet they didn't give last week's storm any designation despite the extreme weather it caused of the Tropical Storm kind up and down the coast.

I think that's wrong. Really wrong.

A Tropical Storm with a name and with wind speeds of 40 and 45 mph gets a lot more media coverage than "bad weather with high surf and sustained winds of 50mph" ...that is just the way we have been trained to pay attention to news and weather events.

If it quacks like a duck, call it a duck. Err on the side of protecting the public and let the NHC cover it not the ugly duckling NWS. Yes, they do a bang up job, but no one pays attention and not everyone watches TWC and says "hmmmnnn, they sent Cantore to Daytona" as most of the people not watching TWC are just going about their day not paying attention without a name.

My rant for the day.

The ball is in their court, let's see what they do with it or if it gets a name. Let's see if people in Florida pay as much attention as people up the coast who are waiting for it to slam the NE... I find it odd that friends in Rhode Island are paying more attention than tourists in Florida.

Besos Bobbi

Pin the Tail on the Tropical Trouble -- NHC shows no circle

2011-10-07T06:17:00.000-07:00

The most hyped hybrid of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season is the storm that may or may not be forming and may or may not be of a tropical nature down in the Florida Straits.

There is an upper level low in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico that is spinning a bit but it is not at the surface. There is moisture and some convergence down in the Florida Straits but no low pressures as of yet. It's rainy in the Miami area today and it will be tomorrow.

So what do we know? There are very strong RIP CURRENTS out there today because of the very strong Easterly flow so be VERY CAREFUL at the beach this weekend! That's a given, storm or no storm.

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Severe/Bulletins.aspx?location=USFL9668

If I was betting on this and I am not a betting person I'd keep my eyes on the Florida Straits just south of the Keys.

Key West Forecast Discussion is interesting:

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=KEY&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

Keep watching. There is the slightest hint of something beginning to spin down there, however until the NHC puts a circle on their website's map I'm not ready to call it tropical. And, I imagine the pressure is big for them to do so but am thinking Bill Read is probably thinking the NWS should be handling this unless it is really tropical and becomes Rina.

So, the game is on and the clock is ticking, yet the name of the game this morning seems to be Indecision.

Besos Bobbi

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qyVBgxbyQpI <---Great Jimmy Buffett song in honor of the day.... don cha know ;)

Steve Jobs Changed the Ways We Track Hurricanes--still waiting on tropical trouble

2011-10-06T11:41:00.000-07:00

May I suggest the time table for development has been pushed off a day or two to the beginning of next week. The Jewish Holiday of Sukkos often falls out during an October tropical event. We make these cute little temporary dwellings that we put up in our yards somewhere and that look a bit like a Tahitian hut in Miami where we use palm fronds for the roof and thatched walls to let the breeze in... often the breeze gets real strong.

Floyd in 1986

Wilma in 2005 and a whole lot of other October storms have blown through South Florida this time of year.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2005_10_01_archive.html (Wilma messed up Sukkos in Miami...and Simchas Torah but oh what a memory it was)

So far...there is not much to track except the various, varying tropical models that are predicting something to form and mess up the weather by the middle of next week.

Now you might be reading that on a website on the computer or you may be tracking on your IPhone or IPad. Most likely you are using some App and well it's just an example of how the world was changed by Steve Jobs and others who tried to copy his success.

Here are a few of the Apps that come up as available to use for storm trackers:

http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/hurricane/id291430598?mt=8

http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/hurricane-tracker/id327193945?mt=8

Steve Jobs changed my world, he changed a lot of worlds and they say imitation is the best form of flattery and there are a lot of cellphones being designed today to look just like the IPhone and yet they aren't because no one can ever steal that excitement of the newness of falling in love for the first time and the world fell in love with Apple a long time ago.

Sweet Tropical Dreams

Ps thanks for all the versions of this song that someone has sent me...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Atlz3qj0K68
thank you Steven...

Still waiting for development around FL... Steve Jobs Dies

2011-10-05T19:41:00.000-07:00

The story of Steve Jobs dying has wiped everything else off the map today. It's big, it's cataclysmic... a Category Five News Story. I am mind you typing this on my netbook, however I'm getting updates on his death on my Itouch that lies next to my knee as I sit here on my bed watching CNN and wondering on whether or not to write a blog entry on the tropics today.

This seems to be some current theme in the world right now. Will Herman Cain overtake Perry or Romney? Will Sarah run? Will Christie run? It's beginning to feel like some campy old Batman TV series with STAY TUNED at the end of every episode.

Now we have people insisting they don't want to run for Vice President...

And, as every weather website hypes a Tropical Storm around or near Florida next week the NHC has yet to blink and highlight one area with even a 0% chance yellow circle.

And, one wrinkle in the forecast that needs to be ironed out is that the Eastern Pacific has come alive and aside from one storm off the coast of Mexico another storm is forming. Usually, when you have so much action in the EPac the Carib and Atlantic take a rest for a few days. Only so much energy out there and the flow from the Pacific can disrupt formation in the Caribbean and Atlantic and the Gulf. Not always but often enough for me to wonder how all of this is going to come together.

We have models taking the system up the East Coast. We have models taking the system up from near Cuba to the Eastern Gulf of Mexico into the Panhandle.

Before we figure out where it will go we need to figure out where it will form.

This is sort of the way Steve Jobs worked it seems. He came across a problem and he solved it and created something new. Then another problem arose and he solved that and created something new.

We are in some holding pattern right now until something shows a spin or a twist or low surface temperatures develop somewhere.

As for Apple... classy way of handling it on www.apple.com with just his face and the dates of his life.

I remember back in 1997 going on AOL Weather Groups on an Apple my ex-husband borrowed from someone. It was great. Just so different from other computers, so much more fun somehow. I loved that machine and where it took me, but somehow it was like going for a ride with cute, sexy guy in a classic convertible ....much better than riding in a boring, boxy 4 store sedan some kid borrowed from his mother.

I remember riding down Old Culter Road one day with a really cute, smart, sweet, sexy boy in his brother's MG...top down, the scenery flying by and the world was perfect for a few hours on a Sunday afternoon. I remember other rides in some Ford Falcon or something ... baby blue on McArthur Causeway to Miami Beach. Well I think it was baby blue, sort of the color of that year but either way the point was the ride was more perfect because well it was perfect. Perfect is perfect. Not much to complain about, a perfect memory. And.... in both instances what made it even more perfect than the boy or the road or the car was the music :) A ride wasn't a ride unless you had the music blaring from your favorite radio station as you drove across Biscayne Bay or all the way down Old Cutler Road. It's the music! That's what Steve Jobs knew, if it was going to be cool like a classic mustang convertible it needed to play music.

Steve Jobs, the quintessential baby boomer. He had to push the bubble, he had to do things his way, he had to try new things and do everything his way and most of all he believed in himself. My gosh what a generation Dr. Spock helped create when he urged not to "break their spirit" in his quintessential child rearing book. Steve Jobs wasn't the apple that fell far from the tree, he was the apple that had a bite out of it because you could not resist taking that bite in the same way Eve could not resist. And, Eve would have wanted an Apple not an IBM.

Maybe it is a good name for a child, I don't know but I know that you wouldn't name a child IBM would you?

Colorful, fun, entertaining, easy to use and it plays your favorite music.

So, the part of my family who loves Apple vs the Android or Google or whatever technological treat they are arguing over these days is expecting a baby very soon and I'm overly preoccupied with thinking on that and other things that go bump in the night. He is in management with Apple, corporate, whatever you call it... and I'm wondering what it must be like to go to work tomorrow there. Then again this was expected and everyone had been waiting for it...for the Apple to drop...for Steve Jobs to pass on to that big Apple store in the sky. Those in the know knew it was coming any day.

In the same way that those in the know ... know something is forming in a few days down near Florida but no one is sure where it will form or where it will go?

Sort of like childbirth. You are in the 9th month, you can feel the baby kicking, you can't walk twenty feet without having to pee or sit down to breathe and yet you have no idea really if it will be tomorrow or next week or the week after and the time of day is more elusive than even figuring out the day. You can see the baby on a sonogram but you can't seem to get it to do what you want anymore than you will be able to get a teenager down the road to do what you want.

Life and death... you don't know for sure when the baby will be born and you don't know for sure when you will die.

I'll just leave you tonight with a great line from a great man...Steve Jobs:

"Your time is limited, so don't waste it living someone else's life."

Sometime later this week Rina may develop down near the Florida Straits, when the NHC starts issuing advisories we will start discussing the tropics more seriously.

Tonight is a night for thinking on how one man became an icon and changed our lives forever by just being himself. I am sure somewhere on my Itouch or my Ipod there is a song that is perfect for this moment but at this moment I'm clueless as to what it is so I'll just go with what comes to mind.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H8DTS96iCZs <-----um disturbing... maybe... are those bobbleheads? lol sorry....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTFD1C4tVIg&feature=related ummmm still can't listen to Chicago ...

--------> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tIdIqbv7SPo (no no danger will robinson)

Perfect ;)

American Pie...the Day the Music Died. Great song... another great ride through an empty field with a full moon rising when the Homecoming Princess didn't want to go to the dance but went for a ride instead, windows down and the music blaring. For some reason the music always sounded better in a car with the windows down and the music blaring or on an Ipod....

Sweet Tropical Dreams Bobbi... babyboomer... likes to do it her own way ;)

(ps... special mention goes to another car ride with Peter singing I'm Henry the 8th I am lol giggling... well cars and Peter and I guess Henry go together like a horse and carriage lol giggling... lol oh my goodness lol, yeah goes up there with the top five cars of all time...I need to go to bed, just hope I don't dream of mustangs in a wild field eating apples)

Tropical Speculation - - Development "Around" Florida

2011-10-04T14:53:00.000-07:00

It's like east, west and all around the town everyone is wondering if something will develop somewhere "around" Florida later this weekend.

Meanwhile, the NHC has yet to so much as give one small yellow circle with even a 0% chance of forming. I keep watching for the NHC to blink, and until they blink I'm keeping my eyes closed. Not looking for tropical trouble this weekend in Florida, next week after that maybe but preferably not this weekend.

Anytime you have a stalled out front, lingering off the coast of Florida and dipping down into the Florida Straits a bit.... you will have people watching for tropical development to form somewhere along that frontal boundary.

One of the issues that will need to be dealt with if something does look like it's forming and that is somewhat low water temps off the East Coast of Florida for this time of year. Water is warmer in the Gulf, more consistent and if something forms it might just be extra-tropical or sub-tropical or the ever popular Hybrid sort of storm that causes a rocky spate of days of rough weather. And, then IF it does form, where does it go? The easy money for now has been on the Carolinas, specifically South Carolina. Though some models imply that it could linger around Florida and move into the Gulf.

Anything goes right now when speculation is on the table, but until there is a yellow circle on the map from the NHC we are just shooting the tropical breeze.

Besos Bobbi

Extreme Weather -- Snow in PA but 90s in South Dakota...

2011-10-03T06:45:00.000-07:00

This is extreme weather going on, not normal, everyday football fall weather as people in South Dakota and Minnesota were most likely dressed warmer for football this weekend then people in the Carolinas where everyone was wearing sweaters and jackets.

There is an imbalance in the flow and all the air is either north out of the South with warm weather heating up the middle of the country and the East and South got a blast of Artic air on the other side of that atmospheric choo choo train.

Dave Schwartz, who must be somewhere these days, used to illustrate this often on the old TWC. He would always say, anytime you have that much air moving in one direction south you have it moving north somewhere else. October is that time of year. There is a deep tropical fetch moving north across the Atlantic on the tail of Ophelia which still had tropical storm force winds up near Avalon who got yet another tropical storm this year. That same meteor like tail is making it impossible for Philippe to get his act together and probably will put the kabosh on the rest of the Atlantic part of the Hurricane Season. In the mountains of the Appalachia it's snowing on areas that should be showing fall foliage still. And, in Benson Minnesota it was suntan weather as the high was 84.t

Quirky, extreme weather and it all depends where you are as to what clothes you are wearing this morning.

Miami had it's first real "cold front" which may seem not so cold to you, but it was cooler in Miami than it was in Minnesota at times yesterday. Cool being relative as everything else in this world is... It was in the 70s not the 80s and a walk on the canal was downright chilly at sunrise.

I'm wondering if we are even going to have Fall this year, because the only things falling are temperatures in the East. Leaves are falling off trees in North Carolina that have barely turned light yellow.

Take a peak and find your favorite town, move the interactive map around and see the extreme differences in temperatures out there yesterday. Go west and see how warm it was, go east and see where the cool temperatures start.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mpx/RTPDisplay.php

As for the tropics... it's just been a weird year and it's getting weirder. Except for Irene who was weird in that she actually made landfall at Coney Island Beach with no weather and dumped lots of her weather on upstate NY and Vermont.... they have been the most mediocre storms we have seen in years, forming one after another as if someone sprinkled fairy dust in their circulation and they were all smoking something psychedelic and could not seem to figure out how to do anything but follow the leader. Yes, storms often recurve but not like this and this was supposed to be a year where the Atlantic Coast was more open to landfalling storms than normally. Which just goes to show you how little we know about predicting hurricane seasons from a cool vantage point in February of the year before. Also... in many other years most of these storms would never have gotten names. In the old days when Bob Sheets was around and a stickler for details and verification a good third of these named storms would not have made depression status yet alone received a name. We'd be back around Irene by now vs wondering on if we will finish the alphabet with storms forming down in the Caribbean.

Speaking of the Caribbean, there is something happening down there possibly. A sort of beginning of a spin or more so a coagulation of stormy weather that could spin so it needs to be watched. Also, the cold front that brought nippy temperatures to the beaches of South Florida this morning could be a spawning ground for the next area to watch as the moisture will linger the ocean temps are still very warm and it's common for something to form off early Fall cold fronts this time of year. The models are playing with that possible scenario like bored boys with no electric trying to play jacks.

The BEST WEATHER PAGE AROUND THESE DAYS IS http://www.spaghettimodels.com/
It really blows away all the other sites as it's fast, easy, visual and informative. It's like looking at a menu in your favorite restaurant and trying to figure out what you want to eat next and how many courses you are up for... it's amazing. Don't get me wrong I still look at HurrCity and Canetalk and www.flhurricane.com but he did an awesome job with this site and.... you can even click on a link to the latest fall sweaters at Victoria Secrets. Kudos... incredible. Tempted to make it my home page.

www.spaghettimodels.com

As for me.... got so much going on today to take care of as I come out from the fog of the Jewish New Year and get off of the sugar/honey high we are all on and come down to life at the gym and eating healthy again. Yes, I did serve a lot of salads and vegetables but there is nothing in the world as good as honey on challah bread, preferably raisin challah! It's a taste of childhood that never grows old.

I really think the Carib needs to be watched even though the buzz is to watch the area off of the coast of Florida.

As for the rest of the season, let me say this about that.

The Dolphin season is over unless Sparano goes now. Unless that's the strategy, that we play so poorly the rest of the year that we can luck out and get Andrew Luck next year in the draft.

Oh you meant Hurricane Season? Well, I like the Canes newest coach... see how a new coach can help spruce up the team???

Oh you meant the Tropical Hurricane Season????

Let me say this.... sometimes the young ones in a family have a real measure of spunk that the lazy ole dogs don't have anymore. Sometimes you got to watch those younger ones as they can be real memorable. Maybe Rina will form or Sean and it will be some big Mitch or Wilma sort of storm. You never know. Why they went with Sean and not Sam I'll never know, doesn't sound awfully tropical to me yet I know a few Sams who hide out in the Cayman Islands.

Whatever you do today, do it with joy and enthusiasm and passion!!

Live a life less ordinary! Gives you something to look back on and giggle ;)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t4OPKzkvpFA <------ Song

Sweet Tropical Dreams... Bobbi

Ps Wish List that is going to be crossed off the list real soon... look, it's got a weather word in the weblink, how cool is that???

http://www.victoriassecret.com/ss/Satellite?ProductID=1265603236182&c=Page&cid=1314947992642&pagename=vsdWrapper

2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season On Auto Pilot....

2011-10-02T18:51:00.000-07:00

Ophelia has 100mph winds east of Cape Cod moving NE and out to sea. For now Ireland is supposedly safe as it won't make it to Europe. Why are the storms so strong so far north this year when it's pretty cool up there and the water should not be THAT hot. Sort of a mystery if you ask me. Or weird science???

Philippe is doing the same dance.

I've been really, really busy with the Jewish High Holy Days and had a really wonderful time but I've been unable to follow the exact details of the last two storms that are doing the same dance in the Atlantic once again...

Look at them:

Irene's the only one of the Atlantic Dancers to get away...

What a season, tracing with my eyes closed the tracks one on top of the other.

Going to start over in the morning.

Meanwhile... it snowed in West Virginia today.... early, early snowfall.

Going to sleep and let the tropical world turn without me tonight. The Fins lost. The Gators lost. Been a losing 24 hours for the State of Florida. Is Henne out for the season or just today's game I wonder?

Can we get Occupy Wall Street to Occupy the Dolphins Main Offices and demand Tony Sparano step down?

Great song below. Danced to it this afternoon at Bellywood Dance Classes at the Gym.

Sweet Tropical Dreams....

Bobbi

In Any Other Year....

2011-09-27T03:58:00.000-07:00

To wake up to morning rain in September and see a big red circle just NE of the islands Miamians would get nervous, agitated and obsessed with the system down there that is coming this way. Not this year.

It's as if everything has been given a magic potion to go north straight up the Atlantic. If you could bottle whatever these systems are on you could make a fortune and Floridians would be able to start breathing a sigh of relief in September.

This has been an unusual year. So far, so good.

I haven't written much the last few days, because really there wasn't much to write. Contestant 14 and 15 have been saying the same things that contestants 1, 2 and 3 have all said on the earlier episodes of the Dating Game this season.

Now, that does not mean that something cannot form down in the Caribbean and catch a cold front north. The force field is not up for Caribbean storms, but so far so good.

So, I've been watching out of the corner of my eye as WSVN's Julie Durda does her tropical dance across the screen and explains pop up showers and far away weak, tropical storms.

Except for a little rain here and there, Miami is beautiful and I've been busy enjoying the beautiful. And, getting ready for the Jewish New Year with menus and arrangements. The weather is cooler than it was a few months ago, yet not cold like it is up north and that's nice.

So, keep watching the tropics and enjoying the respite, because in any other year we'd be getting ready to panic by now from the big red blob down in the tropics about to form into the next storm.

Ophelia Misbehavin' and 30% Chance on Cape Verde Wave

2011-09-23T15:23:00.000-07:00

Brief short post here just to say that Ophelia continues to misbehave and not do what the NHC had hoped she would do which was to die a slow death this afternoon. After a lot of hinting at how weak she was and how poor she looked and how she might not survive she's stronger than she was and confounding those in the know a bit as to how she is hanging in there.

So, it seems we will have Ophelia to kick around a little bit longer, maybe much longer.

And, in the far Atlantic is a beautiful tropical wave that has a 30% chance of forming into a Tropical Storm. Maybe..most likely. My gosh the wave has better structure than Ophelia.

So stay tuned and keep looking up for that 300 pound satellite part that is going to fall somewhere but we don't know where...

Sweet Tropical Dreams

Bobbi

Ophelia Westbound, Hilary in the Pacific, Space Junk Still Falling

2011-09-22T04:43:00.001-07:00

Ophelia is still westbound moving through the tropical Atlantic confounding forecasters who want to weaken her as per some of the models. The discussion out of the NHC covers all of the reasons she should be weaker or might be stronger and are really just not sure how strong she is but why they are going with their data and . .

The truth is she is what she is and all the modeling packages arguing with each other will not change that. Models only show the tendency and probability of what her future movement will be.

The long range track remains the same, curves out to sea and misses Florida after possibly soaking the islands.

Latest Advisory:
Location: 13.4°N 47.0°W
Max sustained: 65 mph
Moving: W at 14 mph
Min pressure: 994 mb

Track:

Tropical Hyperbole:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/220856.shtml

Bottom line:

Keep watching, she's out there and moving west towards land...that IS the bottom line.

There is a lot of shear aimed at Tropical Storm Ophelia keeping her weak, the steering currents will most likely turn her before the islands and she will go where most of the other storms before her went this season. But, until she turns keep watching. There is also some argument as to how strong she will be after she makes the turn....weak storm barely holding on or stronger, possibly a hurricane. Time will tell that story, enjoy watching it play out live on your local news station or satellite imagery.

There is a new wave coming off the coast of Africa, however it is a little late in the year. There is also a small wave flaring up IN the Caribbean but currently the NHC gives it a zero chance of developing, however it is featured on their map.

In the Pacific Hilary is flirting with Hurricane Status, clinging to the coast but off shore as the storms there usually do.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/epac/rb-l.jpg

The Space Junk the size of a school bus is still falling towards Earth.

Keep safe, have fun and enjoy the fresh air that September always brings.

As for me, today is a travel day so I'm on the road and my posts will be few and far between and most likely not have a lot of pictures. Despite being the peak of the season this season has been a strange one and filled with mostly weak, forgettable tropical storms. Except for the one that got away... Irene and they are still cleaning up Irene.

Besos Bobbi
Ps Am I the only one that thinks it's ironic that that a space satellite designed to monitor global temperature and global warming is crashing to earth out of control in a free fall tumble about to pollute the Earth? There should be a better way of handling space junk and I've got to tell you, we have left a whole lot of junk up in space that only has one place to go in the end.

Ophelia Moves West. Roce Hits Japan.Where Will the Space Junk Hit?

2011-09-21T05:59:00.000-07:00

So many questions here that beg answers and we will just have to wait it out it seems.

Let's take them apart, one by one and deal with the Tropical Atlantic question first.

For now it seems that Ophelia will most probably make the turn, though some models beg to differ the popular models curve her up through the islands. You got to wonder what kind of special force field Florida has up this year and who they paid off for the storms to go somewhere else.

It is possible that the models that take her totally into the Caribbean that are being discounted could see a formation of the center further to the south. She is currently under strong shear and her convection is displaced to the West while she has a VERY large, strong band of convection to her south that seems somewhat anchored in a rich tropical soupy flow.

Will see but for now Puerto Rico is destined it seems to get more rain while Texas can't get any and Japan is getting too much.

Roce, pronounced Rouge-K is giving Japan yet more tropical troubles. One has to wonder what they did to upset Mother Nature to have this many problems in one calendar year :( A big concern seems to be that rain water does not mix with nuclear water and well the link to that story is here:

http://canetalk.com/2011/09/1316611260.shtml

Posters at www.canetalk.com are covering this quite thoroughly so you might want to go there for more information.

Another great link posted there shows a hit on the Tampa area in the distant future. Then again the same model had a storm hitting further up the coast yesterday so I would not bet the farm on this landfalling puppy. Sorry for the long link, I never majored it computer programming and am in too weird a mood to try and find another source. Nice long term computer game like graphic tho...

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=09%2F20%2F2011+
18UTC&rname=SFCLAYER+PARMS&pname=10m_wnd_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=
NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel
=&imageSize=M

Yesterday though I received this image so ...for now am assuming garbage in and garbage out. See...I did learn something from all those computer geeksters I used to date. Cute men who seemed to want to take over the world . . .

So, as there does seem to be a tendency to develop some storm down in the Carib in a week or two or three... someone, somewhere along the Gulf might want to watch this trend in the world of tropical models.

If only we could get a big, sloppy Tropical Storm to rain on Texas...

As for the Saga of the Space Junk.... keep looking up and saying your prayers. By the way, that one out of 3,200 chance that it will hit someone means on the entire planet, your own chance of being hit is more like one in millions. But, if you really need something to worry on with today's economy and the weird weather of 2011 and the fires in Texas or earthquakes in Alaska, Peru, Fiji and Japan... continue worrying on the Space Junk that is falling somewhere possibly in a neighborhood near you.

www.spaceweather.com

Lastly, I noticed somewhere...that the Farrelly Brothers have a release date for Spring of 2012. March..April. My question is how could they release a film that has not yet been filmed. Sounds like pre-filming, publicity to me... said it before and will say it again. Forget hiring actors... let Bobby, Peter and Bennett do the acting and the movie will be a bigger hit that the one about whats her name.

Besos Bobbi

Ps, yeah am in a pissy mood. I am tired of Mark Zuckerberg or whoever the powers that be are these days at Facebook who need to change things every day and send me long, graphical tutorials before I have even had a chance to sip my coffee. I mean seriously? Really??? Trust me Sean Parker was a lot more fun and I'm wishing we still have Myspace at this point. Again, computer programmers seem to know a lot more about programming machines than programs of the heart. And, I am not even going to discuss www.ted.com which sounds more like some sort of online disease than an alternative news source.

Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms in the Atlantic

2011-09-20T19:56:00.000-07:00

Seems like someone finally figured out where the center was and we went from 60% probability straight to Tropical Storm.

Drove me crazy all day. Honest. The first system in a while that looked that nicely put together and we were waiting on what I don't know. Verification obviously... via some method that could justify an upgrade from red blob to named Tropical Storm.

For now Ophelia is westbound. Some models take her into the Caribbean, others curve her along the paths previously taken by other storms this season.

Time will tell but the one thing that we know for sure is she IS a Tropical Storm, not a Depression.

Makes me nuts when we are waiting for official confirmation of what is extremely obvious. Just the way it goes and now that we have it...the question is where is it going?

Long range models show variable solutions but easy money is on it to curve before going into the Caribbean. Then again, I saw a long, long, LONG range model that had a storm in the Gulf. It's a wide cone right now.

One thing to remember... just because Irene and Maria took that path out to sea does not mean Ophelia will. Often each storm is similar, however the devil IS in the details and the slightest difference can make a BIG difference later on.

Game on...tho it's not a game just a term we use.

Sweet Tropical Dreams

Tropical Depression Soon to Be TS Ophelia Forming in the Atlantic

2011-09-20T10:33:00.000-07:00

Time to wake up and shake off those tropical meteorological blues and start paying attention to the Tropics again. The Atlantic Tropics vs staring wistfully at Typhoon Roke on it's way to Japan.

A system is forming that could become a big Hurricane that could affect the Carib or take a more similar Atlantic track. If it were to get into the Caribbean it would be making landfall and not moving off towards Newfoundland. And, if it were to get into the Carib it would more than likely become a strong hurricane down the road as this part of the season favors storms intensifying in the very warm waters of the Caribbean Sea.

Time will tell on the track but the writing is on the wall regarding an upgrade to a named system. We are currently at 70%, but this system looks way better than 70% It has a designated, easy to find center and nice, beautiful, long arms that wrap back into the center like a ballet dancer getting ready to spin.

My oh my Ophelia. Nicest system I've seen in a while as far as structure goes. Who knew that out of all those orange and yellow blobs in the Atlantic there was a beautiful swan coming to life?

Keep watching and wondering what she will next. I'm guessing they will upgrade her based on satellite imagery and model support and wait for recon to give her a name.

Animate this loop to the sounds of this classic song which always stays in my mind because....well... because I have a good memory for songs ;)

And, note... just like this song, some storms go slow as they move across the Atlantic and then once they get rollin....they get intense in the Caribbean. Well, if she makes it into the Caribbean. Enjoy the music and the memories.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-wv.html <-- loop

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=brdqJ29PQac <--- listen

Stay tuned...

Besos Bobbi

Fins Fail & Orange and Yellow Blobs In the Atlantic

2011-09-18T19:37:00.000-07:00

The only orange worth looking at tonight is the orange blob in the Atlantic that has a possible chance of becoming the next named storm... maybe.

You can see something slowly coming together, sort of bending, folding in on itself in the last few frames.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif

Models have it possibly going into the Caribbean though others re-curve it.

Time will tell. Let's first see it form... before we try and figure out where it's gonna go.

The Dolphins played a horrible game today. Not the worst gave I have ever seen, but pretty darn horrible. Fins Fail. That's what I saw in my email after the game, so going to go with putting it that way as that's pretty much the best way I could put it as well. Fail. An F? Do they give an F+?? Maybe a D, Dolphins today played a game worth rating a D. Okay, a D+. They showed up. Henne did, and y'all know I usually dislike Henne. The Defense did not show up for the Dolphin game, thus making the game a D- I'm not happy with the coach. I didn't like him last year, I like him less this year. I like Henne more, though he would be a better back up to a really good quarterback however right now he's all we got and he's not playing horribly. There is a lack of coaching. And, as a muse... I can say that inspiration is 50% at least of the battle. If you aren't inspired you aren't going anywhere neither as an artist or a writer nor as a football teach. Very poor coaching and a poor excuse for a defense.

So.... that's where we are tonight.

Mike Huckabee is on Fox TV with two blondes and he looks happy. Who lost that battle huh? He seems to enjoy his life. I like that. Geraldo was on earlier trying to explain all at once how Obama was losing the Jewish and the Latino vote, which he is over qualified to discuss. I keep trying to figure out how he got to Fox. And, no watching Fox tonight was not a matter of politics, I was too tired to change the channel as mute on CNN sounds pretty much the same as it does on Fox.

Went to the Greek Festival today. Oh my goodness, all people do up here at the Greek Festival is EAT. A lot of BIG Eaters of all nationalities eating Greek Food. I'm used to a more artsy sort of Greek Festival like in Miami..blew me away. I did get a nice wrist band, jingle bracelet thingie for when I do Bollywood and Bellydance. Green, nice... has little coins on it :) And, had an incredible Halvah Sundae with honey on top.

Otherwise, will be back in Miami very soon and figure that means we will have something to start tracking as it worked with Emily and Irene so... dust off those hurricane tracking maps for Ophelia.

Some things you can't make up, though I'm wondering if someone knew I'd look for that. Hmmnnn...never know with my life or maybe it's just serendipity vs art imitating life.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zNpEefYzOLg

Stay tuned.... as the yellow blob may blob out and the Orange Blob (Orange for the U and the Hurricanes Great Win last night) may become Ophelia.

Sweet Tropical Dreams
Bobbi

Ps... John Morales just tweeted this great link to the 1926 Hurricane that was 85 years ago... excellent footage and it might be a good time to give thanks that we were not hit with something like that this year or any year since.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eClrbaZtGNQ&feature=youtu.be

http://twitter.com/#!/JohnMoralesNBC6

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zNpEefYzOLg

Maria...A Cold-Hearted Storm and A Blast of Winter in September

2011-09-16T09:58:00.000-07:00

I don't know about you, but I'm looking through my closet for my boots and sweaters. It's cold in Raleigh this morning. Cold can be defined as 56 degrees in the middle of the day when it was in the 90s earlier in the week. That's quite a drop and the front came in with a blast of cold air that will probably give quite a few people the sniffles.

While we bask in football weather temperatures, Newfoundland had a taste of the tropics from Hurricane Maria.

http://winnipeg.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20110916/hurricane-maria-newfoundland-110916/20110916/?hub=WinnipegHome

Well, it doesn't look too tropical but Maria may knock down trees and interrupt the power which is pretty impressive for a weak storm that wandered it's way west across the Atlantic all the way from Africa. Got to give Maria credit, she is a long tracker.

Newfoundland is not a stranger to land falling tropical systems, in fact they were visited last year by Hurricane Igor. They are not a stranger to bad weather of the winery kind. But, what most people don't know about Newfoundland is that it has it's own little tourist trade and is a popular stop for travelers who like to browse the English specialty teas and businesses on Water Street. What most people don't know is Water Street advertises itself as the "Oldest Street in North America" and that's probably true. Seems the earliest explorers were looking for a place to settle and live quietly away from persecution and settled there before they found out about warmer climates like Virginia and the Carolinas.

If you ever want to take a trip and view some breathtaking scenery to the north far away from Key West and Catalina Island then Newfoundland might be for you.

They even have Bed and Breakfasts if that is your favorite way of getting to really know a place and it's history.

http://www.parkhouse-nl.ca/

Some information about this quaint, beautiful but sturdy place:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avalon_Peninsula

http://www.glutenfreeguidebook.com/2008/08/05/a-tale-of-two-newfoundland-inns/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avalonia <--- for the historians and geologists.

http://travel.nytimes.com/2006/07/28/travel/escapes/28hours.html <--stouts wow ;)

http://www.britanniateas.ca/

Why am I showing all of you tropical weather people these links? Because if a tree falls in a forest and no one is there the tree is still dead. And, just because you may never have had a cup of tea or a stout at a local pub, these shops are boarded up today and the souvenir shops are closed and people are losing money and quite possibly they will have to clean up just like those ports of call further south that usually get the exciting coverage on TWC. Stephanie Abrams didn't get to do live shots on this storm and no one there got to meet Jim Cantore. But, they are getting a hurricane just the same.

It's a big, beautiful world out there and many of us travel the routes we know over and over and others are always looking for some new place to take a trip to and see something different. It reminds me a little of Portland Maine.

If you are not up to taking a trip and like to travel virtually, here are some web cams that are up that you can watch. They show a cold, gray day with wet highways and some stations with wind warnings.

http://www.roads.gov.nl.ca/cameras/#nlmap

So, my question for the day is why is it colder in North Carolina today than it is in Brooklyn? Ummmmm, am sure there is a reason but I'm not really interested. It's like splitting hairs 57 vs 62, both seem cold. But, then I'll be home in Miami in a few days and most of the temps will be in the 80s, both at night and in the daytime. So, for this weekend I am going to really enjoy the cool temps, my winter clothes and visiting with friends.

As for the tropics there is an area of weather down in the SW Carib and yet another wave coming off of Africa.

So, keep watching and waiting because something will most likely develop being that we are at the peak of the Hurricane Season. Of course, someone needs to tell that to the Tropical Waves out there who might not be reading their press releases.

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/AtlanticSatellite.aspx?animate=true

Have a wonderful weekend! Enjoy the weather, watch your favorite team and get out and breathe the fresh air!!

Besos Bobbi

Maria to Make Landfall in Canada?

2011-09-15T19:53:00.000-07:00

Track:

Still a hurricane and spouting a better eye now than she has had so far. Who knew a storm named Maria would make it to

".A 30 NMI DIAMETER EYE HAS BEEN APPARENT IN EARLIER MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 70 KT BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB..."

"WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE
WARNING AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND ASSOCIATED WITH MARIA."

Canada has a wonderful Hurricane Center of it's own. The link is below:

http://text.www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/warnings/report_e.html?nl28

Avalon is expected to feel the force of Hurricane Maria.

Down in the lower 48 the cold front is blowing through slowly after a beautiful thunderstorm and subsequent heavy rains and it is still raining. Nothing so beautiful as the sounds of rain falling at night as you lie in bed and listen. Rolling thunder like summer's last kiss before the Autumn leaves begin to fall.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

Bobbi

Southbound Cold Front...Maria Becomes a Hurricane & Quakes in Cuba & FIJI Region

2011-09-15T14:10:00.001-07:00

It's been a busy day in the world of weather weenies. Okay, I hate that phrase. Always have but feel sort of irreverent today and silly so going to go with it. Hey, it sold a lot of advertisers on TWC so they must know something.

Personally, I'd like to call us Earth Science Junkies. How's that for a new term? Cantore will probably steal it and use it at TWC, but am used to that...

Meteorology and Geology go together like a horse and carriage, Peter Farrelly and Bobby Farrelly and love and marriage. Oceanography is a horse of a different color that both parties accept like Stephen and Pine Trees and yes that makes sense if you have the code book, which I do.

So, when there is nothing exciting to track in September in the tropics Earth Science Junkies turn their heads towards the heaven and start watching Space Weather and obsessing on whether or not weather and earthquakes are being manipulated by Weather Modification. Honest, really they do. This is actually not such a bad thing as Tropical Weather Fanatics have been known to eat their young when there is no storm to track in September so in the interest of peace on earth and good will to man worrying over HAARP and other things that go bump in the Terrestrial Night is productive and better for everyone's mental health.

I woke up to a message on my phone. 6.0 in Cuba. I'd have rather woken up to a message that Fidel has really left the planet and is on his way to wherever dictators and murderers go... But, the earthquake message did shake me out of bed and get me up on the computer. The irony that I was tracking an Earthquake in Cuba on September 15th rather than a Major Hurricane going WNW into the island did hit me.

Do I believe in Weather Modification? Sure I do. I would be stupid with all I know about past successful experiments and failed ones to believe it doesn't happen. China modifies the weather all the time and did so during the Olympics.

Here's an article from the LA Times, not exactly a second rate newspaper.

http://travel.latimes.com/articles/la-trw-rain31jan31

Yes Virginia, making rain fall from the sky for crops or trying to stop the rain from falling IS weather modification on it's simplest level. Some of the brightest and best tropical meteorologists of our time spent a lot of time in Africa learning from seeding clouds to make rain fall. Storm Fury is a project that studied and experimented on weather modification and received bad press for it unjustly I think. An amazing project and a shame that the public turned against during the era of "always having to CYA on everything" shut it down. Well, that and lack of funding but when the media turns against you and the government worries on the details the money stops flowing.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hrd_sub/sfury.html

Understand if we don't study and experiment on things like this we will never learn what we need to know to try and change the weather for the good.

Then again, Lex Luthor usually used weather modification for the bad and well everything in life is a matter of free choice. You can be Clark Kent or you can be Lex Luthor... your choice.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superman_III

Hey, don't laugh it's a better movie than that one where they made all those Category 6 Hurricanes and the sexy scientist and the nerdy one fought for the heart of a weather girl named I think Bonnie. Trying NOT to remember that one, never going to win any awards. The nerdy one survived, don't worry about it... he might have even won the girl. Trying NOT to remember......

So, have they moved on to earthquakes and studying how to make them happen or is that just paranoia and OCD worrying on the Earth and 2012? Hey some people are OCD hypochondriacs and others worry on Planet Earth and some I suppose worry on their health and the future of Planet Earth.

I mean it's true there is nothing new under the sky or in our imaginations.

http://www.crystalinks.com/atlanteancrystals.html

Yup, some believe that the Atlanteans discovered the secrets of the universe and it went kaboom, down, down, down into the ocean. Atlantis was doomed to swim with the fishies and we are doomed to rely forever on foreign oil it seems.

I don't know. Can't say. But it does amaze me that if you go to Twitter and type in earthquakes the twitter feed does not stop with discussion by people on several continents on HAARP. Maybe it is the Holy Grail of Earth Science Junkies trying to prove that someone, somewhere is causing a whole lot of shake, rattle and rolling.

http://www.haarp.alaska.edu/

A bigger question for me is WHY so many really "good" waves that were well stacked vertically (with the exception of Emily) and had mild shear and strong water temperatures did not develop this year. Sort of odd, way too many coincidences to laugh it off though what would cause that I don't know. I've read discussion and I've seen them talking on TWC about just why what looked like perfectly good waves did not develop and even Bryan Norcross the Weather Guru of all Tropical Fanatics seems stumped.

Good question for post season analysis. Irene should have been stronger and even Maria should have developed more.

So, as I sit here waiting for "THE COLD FRONT" that is supposed to drop temperatures more than 20 degrees below normal in Carolina I am watching what seems to be a very quiet tropical Atlantic and a very busy geological day with Major Quakes in Cuba and the Fiji Region.

And, lastly I am trying to remember when the last time a quake was downgraded from 6.0 to 5.1? That is the biggest downgrade I ever remember. Usually it's a matter of degrees from 7.1 to 6.9. Nine degrees is a lot.

7.3 2011/09/15 19:31:03 -21.559 -179.369 626.1 FIJI REGION

4.9 2011/09/15 16:54:50 -54.075 -1.551 14.9 BOUVET

5.1 2011/09/15 16:08:33 -54.041 -1.971 16.3 BOUVET
5.1 2011/09/15 15:27:02 36.383 82.528 6.5 SO CHINA

5.5 2011/09/15 11:59:53 -14.848 -177.812 370.0 FIJI REGION

4.1 2011/09/15 11:02:14 49.573 -127.182 25.2 VANCOUVER
3.5 2011/09/15 09:56:42 33.633 -117.839 10.6 LA, CA
5.1 2011/09/15 08:43:07 19.563 -78.008 5.0 CUBA REGION
6.2 2011/09/15 08:00:07 36.289 141.308 10.0 HONSHU JAPAN
6.0 2011/09/15 07:53:12 -35.430 -177.878 13.4 EAST OF NZ

4.4 2011/09/15 03:44:04 21.627 143.005 294.0 MARIANA
4.5 2011/09/15 02:06:49 59.132 -138.121 7.3 SE ALASKA 4.1 2011/09/15 00:21:05 59.902 -151.823 53.7 KENAI ALASKA

That's a lot of quakes for one day and I took out all the 3s and 2s except for the one in LA.

A tropically bored poster on www.canetalk.com posted this yesterday and it opened the door for a lot of discussion. Hey, there's not much else to discuss.

There was the 6.0 Cuban Quake downgraded to 5.1 (which basically makes it not a major quake which seems inconsistent with how the system works but whatever...) and well perhaps it's a Triangular theory as the big quake today on the 188th day as forecast was back in the Fiji Region. Even if they got the place wrong, they did get the day right and that's sort of a big HMMMMNNN.

So, I'll leave the matter for you to all think on and think if it's possible that something is going on with Planet Earth other than birds doing it and bees doing it and even educated fleas do it, while electronic sheep sleep can someone be playing with Mother Nature?

Don't know but am sure if so we will read about it on The Drudge Report or at www.canetalk.com or Twitter ;)

Sweet Tropical Dreams

Bobbi Storm

new school: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WIrNnmuyDqc

old school: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JEzTsq5vZ-4

Maria Heads North

2011-09-13T07:10:00.001-07:00

In Motion:

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/AtlanticSatellite.aspx?animate=true

Not much happening in the tropics other than Maria who is expected to pass safely to the west of Bermuda. She ironically looks better now than she has so far... go figure... This season has had a few storms that seemed to do better once they left the tropics and moved up into the middle of the Atlantic Ocean.

As for Katia, she's alive and kicking in Great Britain!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/8756633/Severe-gales-to-
batter-Britain-as-Hurricane-Katia-crosses-the-Atlantic.html

There is a beautiful wave coming off of Africa, but that doesn't mean it will get a name though it is getting second looks by tropical meteorologists who are thirsty to track a real tropical system.

Despite the high numbers and our advance to the letter M we really have had mostly a motley group of weak, willy nilly tropical storms. I believe Joe Bastardi used that phrase on Twitter the other day, but I do agree with him.

This season has been high on quantity and low on quality.

Maybe we are lucky, but I doubt our luck will run out as October gets closer.

South Florida gets hit more by storms in October that form down in the Caribbean that latch onto Cold Fronts that have moved deep down the State than any other time of the year. And, the Caribbean is famous for storms like Mitch and Wilma that form later in the tropical season.

So, keep watching.

On another note.... La Nina seems to be taking over for this coming year and I'll be writing about that more later this month.

Everyone keeps asking me, "Is the season over?"

The answer is, "No. It's not over. It's sort of on hiatus!"

The truth is when tropical systems mix with Artic Cold Fronts that are south bound things often get serious.

For now... reruns of Twister and watching Storm Chasers on TWC might be what the doctor ordered.

And, again if you have the time and the money please contribute to the Red Cross or whatever group you would like to contribute to as people up north are still cleaning up from the historic floods that have destroyed whole towns and people's lives far away from where hurricanes normally make landfall.

Besos Bobbi

www.redcross.org

Maria...Only Game In Town

2011-09-12T14:37:00.001-07:00

Maria's the only game in town in the Tropics and she's refusing to follow the short term game plan from the NHC. She is barely moving, drifting at the most and she has missed her marks all day for the previous points she was supposed to be at.

Whether this is a problem down the road or just a wayside rest for Maria, time will tell.

It is possible that she is simply too small of a storm to get picked up easily by the steering currents that would pick up a stronger storm. Several of the models showed her getting to a place where she would be getting stronger...and yet she hasn't. She is what she is and she is not moving right now.

Worth watching though imagine the debates and the start of Monday Night Football and the Miami Dolphins Regular Season are a bit higher up on the excitement list than worrying on Maria.

If she doesn't move soon... it's something to worry on.

NHC Bottom line...salient point:
"ALTHOUGH MARIA HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE TODAY...THE MODEL GUIDANCE
INSISTS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD
AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. MARIA SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD "

Besos Bobbi

Ps...cute smiley face over Africa.. just saying...

Tropical Update ... 911 Weekend & Dramatic Flooding

2011-09-09T15:08:00.000-07:00

Track:

Somehow this morning the tropics seem to pale in comparison to the other events that are going on in the world. There really wasn't anything to post and there really are no immediate threats to anywhere of the tropical kind today.

I'll start off with Nate as he is closest to land and stronger and much more organized than Maria. Mind you a lot of people could explain all of Nate's deficiencies but I think he shows us what a real tropical storm should look like when it is spinning, pumping and you can find the center. Nate is spinning quite beautifully, tight little neat system.

The NHC has decided to throw all the mixed up models aside and go with one destination for Nate, which was their original destination. However, he is stationary and until he moves we are still in forecasting mode.

As for Maria... the discussion read sort of spacey if you ask me. It was like saying we really aren't sure IF Maria IS R E A L L Y a tropical storm still but we are going to just go with it and write an advisory. The planes had a problem earlier, the satellite imagery is iffy... Let's be real, Maria is about to pass over the islands and I think we will get some real input from the islands just how strong or weak she really is so that mystery should be resolved soon. She has slowed down and is possibly making a move or taking dance lessons before hitting the resort towns of the
Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands by tomorrow night. We will have some real information on Maria soon. She's weak, she's a big area of weak weather with some strong winds and she should put

Doesn't sound like an exact science here:

"IT APPEARS THAT MARIA HAS SLOWED DOWN TODAY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...SUCH AS IT IS...IS LOCATED TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF THE SURFACE CENTER REFORMS
CLOSER TO THE MID-LEVEL CENTER OVERNIGHT OR ON SATURDAY. IN FACT...
THIS MAY BE WHY THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A TRACK FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS."

Sounds like a kid trying to explain to his teacher what happened with his homework...

If you ask me she at least has some sort of circulation center and is at least a Tropical Depression. I don't buy a downgrade to a wave, looks better than a wave. A Tropical Storm? Well, it appears.............

Either way her track remains the same, she turns north and misses Florida.

And Katia is going fast out to sea and leaving our side of the Atlantic. Amazingly, no one seems to have told her that she is too far north to still be a Hurricane, she's putting on quite a show up there in the North Atlantic.

Otherwise.... it's going to be a weekend in parts of the North where people are going to clean up after the floods or put together a plan on how they are going to clean up or put together a plan for what to do if their house was washed away and they have no home to go back to... It's a real mess up there and TWC is covering it far better than I could except to say how sorry I am that people have to go through such tragedy.

I don't know why there is this false perception of safety in other parts of the country that disasters only happen in California and Florida. The strongest earthquake ever in the United States was in Missouri/Arkansas and Tennessee in that region where all three come together. Fires and flood happen anywhere. Twisters hit random cities. Terror can find you anywhere you live not just NYC and Washington DC.

We have to be happy and give thanks when our lives our "normal" and they are not torn apart by the misery that tore apart the lives of people living in cities in Vermont or the lives of the families of people whose loved ones died on the planes in 911 or on the ground or at World Trade Center.

So, on this quiet Friday afternoon I am going to finish preparing for the Jewish Sabbath, put some more food up, figure out what to wear to a friend's house for dinner and give thanks that I can sit with friends and family enjoying a meal and appreciating all I have in my life.

I suggest you do the same...whether you gather around a table with your loved ones or go for a walk on the beach or have coffee in a cute coffee bar in a busy city. Enjoy life, give thanks and take a moment to pause and think on the fact that it has been ten years since I sat online with my crazy friend early in the morning, like we did every morning in September discussing the tropics and suddenly my friend stopped typing back... my kids came in and said a plane had hit the World Trade Center and my daughter who had just gotten back from Israel said immediately, "it's terrorism" while my younger kids thought that was crazy, it had to be an accident.

We all remember where we were when we heard that JFK was shot and the younger generation remembers where they were when they heard the planes went into the World Trade Center.

It's humbling and important and more important this weekend than Nate and Maria.

Besos Bobbi

Maria Remains a TS, Nate is Stationary and Katia is going out to sea...

2011-09-08T20:40:00.000-07:00

Nate is caught up temporarily in a weak steering pattern and he is stationary just off the north coast of Mexico creating flooding which may

There is a thought that Nate becomes stuck down there for days, possibly up to a week in the weakest of steering currents. Hard to believe. The only thing certain is that he is holding his own cradled in the Bay of Campeche with no rush to go in any direction anytime soon. At this rate he may be with us longer than Maria

And, as of 11pm Maria is still with us as a Tropical Storm. Despite her weak appearance watches and warnings have been posted for the various islands:

THE METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT OF CURACAO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST. MAARTIN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.

Really great I might add to watch NFL Football. Nothing like being properly distracted while waiting for the new discussion to come out than watching Green Bay play New Orleans on TV.

It's easier sometimes to play Fantasy Football and predict the outcome than it is to predict storms that are either stationary like Nate or zooming through the Atlantic like Maria. Got to give the NHC credit, they are working over time for their money this year.

For now, the NHC kept Maria a Tropical Storm. Logic is below, and I agree with that logic.

"DUE TO COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEMS...THE
AIRCRAFT THAT INVESTIGATED MARIA WAS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT A FULL DATA
SET. THEREFORE...IT WAS NOT DETERMINED WITH CERTAINTY WHETHER A
WELL-DEFINED CLOSED CIRCULATION STILL EXISTED. HOWEVER...THE PLANE
MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1005 MB...SHOWING THAT AT THE VERY
LEAST A LOW PRESSURE CENTER STILL EXISTED. BASED ON THIS...MARIA
IS MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
35 KT IS BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA AND RECENT BUOY REPORTS."

Good Discussion on Maria, it took long enough. Not used to waiting til 11:20 before the 11Pm discussion was posted but it was worth waiting for...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/082051.shtml?

The new cone stays offshore Miami and South Florida, however that could change later "in the forecast period" which is my way of saying you know the drill. She is still a long, long ways away from South Florida but she is moving quickly west at 21 mph forward speed.

So, that's it. Spent the night working on a creative project while watching Green Bay play and it doesn't get better than that. Well, if the Dolphins had been on that would have been better but I'm happy the football season has started. Bring it on...

As for Maria and Nate I can only hope they avoid creating more flooding misery for the U.S. unless they can figure out a way to rain on Texas.

Sweet Tropical Dreams

Bobbi
Ps...To be fair, Maria does have more convection tonight than she has had all day. Does she have a solid center though that is the question. And, more problematic if the center fix is off...so are the models, as the saying goes garbage in ...garbage out. Let's hope we have it right!

The Saga of Maria. Falling Apart or Coming Together ?

2011-09-08T12:12:00.000-07:00

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
200 PM AST THU SEP 08 2011

...MARIA NOT WELL ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

The saga of Maria is beginning to sound a lot like a soap opera. The problem is if she doesn't fall apart she could be a big possible threat to South Florida and/or the Carolinas.

Loop the loop and you can see the naked swirl that is Maria moving west bound with convection blowing up but not specifically wrapping around the center.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-vis.html

Some models intensify Maria in the Bahamas:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2011090812-maria14l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

The GFS model intensifies both Maria and Nate in a few days:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2011090812&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

I suppose the real question is how "together" is Maria and can she hang in there long enough past the blast of shear she is fighting as Katia moves out of the picture? If so she's something to watch.

Nate may be stronger than he looks. He may be small, but size does not count here he may be stronger than he looks. Recon has found stronger winds in Nate than they were expecting to find.

Katia is finally moving away.

What I find surprising is that despite Maria's poor satellite presentations that the models really like her, they really, really like her and they show her as a strong hurricane later in the forecast period. Most do anyway...

Stay tuned and see what the NHC do with Maria at 5pm.

Up north, the floods go on and on and on... as the flood waters keep rising in Binghamton and evacuation orders given to 150,000 people in Pennsylvania.

http://www.clevelandleader.com/node/17465

The pattern may change as what appears to be a stronger Arctic looking cold front moves south pushing the somewhat stagnant pattern we have had away and ushering in a cool blast of Autumn Air into the mix.

Speaking of Autumn and Winter, La Nina is back... more on that later.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring
/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

Maria and Nate are more pressing problems to ponder...

Easy to kill Maria off at 5, but if they do will she stay dead or come back to haunt us?

Besos Bobbi

Maria, Nate and Katia & Inland Flooding in the US

2011-09-08T05:48:00.000-07:00

The story of the day really is the inland flooding far from all 3 of these tropical systems that was caused by a mix of the remnants of Lee and the trough that picked up Lee and the tropical dance they did of Caribbean Infusion into a frontal boundary moving through the Mid-Atlantic.

Long sentence to explain that the rain from Lee intensified the amount of moisture and created a tragic scenario that without Lee's remnants would just have been another day of September Rain.

This is directly tied to Lee and it should be a lesson that hopefully many will remember that what happens on the coast of Louisiana can and might effect those living in upstate NY. Lee's butterflies wings were really powerful and devastating. Another reminder that weak tropical systems, tropical storms especially can sometimes cause much wider misery than a small, compact, strong category 1 or 2 hurricane.

It's interesting for me to see the city of Binghamton being covered live on air as I have had many friends in Chabad who were mostly macrobiotics who went to school there years back. There's a big university and a wonderful community that is being impacted today from flooding on the levels the NE has not seen since Agnes. Pennsylvania, Maryland and the later today NYC and New England again will get socked. The legacy of Lee.

I'll say it again and again and again and I discussed it with Bill Read at the NHC during a conference there, always bothers me... inland flooding does not generate the pre-storm hype that landfall does and that needs to be changed. It's something about the way the NWS works, they work in real time. They put it in the long range forecast "watch Lee" but they don't get the attention even locally that the NHC does far away. This really MUST change as conditions locally often happen faster in real time and are more prone to change quicker than a 3 day cone out of the NHC. The NWS's loss was the NHC gain when Bill Read moved to Miami to work for the NHC. I only wish the media paid more attention to inland flooding possibilities before the horse swims through the barn door.

http://www.pressconnects.com/article/20110908/NEWS01/110908025/
Video-from-BU-Event-Center-evacuation-center?odyssey=tab|topnews|img|FRONTPAGE

http://www.pressconnects.com/

In the tropics Maria keeps moving west and it's not a good thing that she is not intensifying, because the weaker she stays the more she moves west. The more chance she will impact land and affect the islands.

At 8 AM the French Islands issued a Tropical Storm Watch for their part of the world. They do their own excellent forecasting and they are very proactive in their watches vs some of the other wait and watch and see attitudes in the Caribbean.

TROPICAL STORM MARIA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
800 AM AST THU SEP 08 2011

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
MARTINIQUE...GUADELOUPE...ST BARTHELEMY AND ST MARTEEN.

The salient point here is not how strong Maria is now, or if she does or doesn't have a closed circulation as the NHC is implying (boy would they love to downgrade her) but what she will do tomorrow. A weak, insipid upper level low has been moving out ahead of her and keeping her development in check the last few days. That is expected to move away and leave Maria in a position to strengthen in a few days when she is much closer to the islands. Until then, she is going to ride the southern edge of the Atlantic high and keep moving west. Many a storm has had this set up and often when the upper level low gets out of it's way it intensifies rapidly. This worries me more than if Maria was getting stronger and pulling north more. With every new advisory you will see her cone moved further and further west. More an Emily scenario than her sisters Irene and Katia in that she is developing slower and having problems pulling it together and if so she may come in further west than both Irene and Katia. BUT, she should miss the United States and curve north like Irene and Katia before her.

NOTE.... at some point this scenario is going to change and as we still have storms coming off of Africa, this is not a lock on future forecasted tracks. It is what it is today in early September, late September may be a different set up as things become more fluid later as we approach Autumn, true Autumn not meteorological Autumn which started on September 1st, the real autumn when fronts dip down more and sometimes the door to the north gets blocked by ridging that moves in deep after a cold front moves off the east coast further south.

So stay tuned as Ophelia is waiting in the wings, probably in the form of a Cape Verde Wave that recently exited the African Coast.

The Good News with Nate is the door is opening for a possible northward track towards Texas. The BAD NEWS is that if he goes too far east he could hit the same area Lee did and cause the same trouble Lee did. Right now, if this was a Magic 8 Ball it would read "Try Again Later" as there are just too many possible scenarios even though the NHC is officially going with the shuffle off to Mexico track.

Stay tuned and contribute generously to the Red Cross or any charity of your choice in the affected areas as the natural disasters of 2011 just keep rolling in... if only money and charity could roll in as fast to help the survivors of this messy weather year which will go down in history for record rainfall and record floods after a winter that didn't stop with record snowfall. Beginning to make me wonder what this coming winter will bring up north and how fast it will or won't come on.

But, hey that's Bastardi's territory not mine, I just follow the tropics.

Besos Bobbi

Ps... Last night while watching TWC after the debate, one of the on air meteorologists said and I quote "The flash flooding happened really suddenly" and I just stared... she's not Stephanie Abrams or Jim Cantore, that's for sure... yup, that's why they call it "flash flooding" . . .

2 New Storms: Nat & Maria Join Katia In the Tropics

2011-09-07T14:33:00.000-07:00

Nate is the circle that says 70% as the NHC has been slow to update their graphics, they've been busy... it will all get up there soon.

Oddly the only one that is close enough to cause trouble to land is the very unimpressive Nate who is hovering just offshore the Yucatan. So, since cities there may be affected I'll deal with Nate first. www.skeetobiteweather.com did a great job putting together the up closer and personal track map that is posted above. Kudos, really...they are marvelous!

A slow mover, lots of rain and a strong signature on the "juice loop" despite a poor presentation on satellite imagery. Most likely will move north. Not north enough to put out the fires in Texas but north just the same. Maybe one big group prayer here? So far, looks to go north and then curve off to the west towards Mexico. That could change as it's just formed, but I think the pattern is pretty set.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif

Maria was given her name earlier today at 11. She's a nice storm to look at and developing carefully and most likely going to follow Katia and Irene out to sea. Might make a run for the islands and make a few people in Miami and the Bahamas nervous but they seem pretty set on her making the turn. She is a fast mover.

LOCATION...13.2N 44.2W
ABOUT 1205 MI...1935 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

That is indeed what we call racing through the tropics. Such a fast moving storm might take a little longer to make a turn and she could get further west than expected but those questions won't be answered just yet. For now they have her recurving out to sea. Let's see.. at this point she make overtake Katia who is moving ever so slowly in the Atlantic. To me Katia looks like she is moving slower than 10 mph and I figure they are hoping she will move 10 mph. My question with Katia would be why is she moving so slowly out to sea....

The models for Maria:

Katia meanwhile looks to be spinning about in the Atlantic barely moving.

You be the judge:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-avn.html

I don't know, she looks like she is barely moving, just spinning on her own axis but the forecast is all about forecasted movement and she is forecast to grab her ride out of town soon. Time will tell. Puzzles me that she just sits there and everyone ignores it but well, the models show her moving away....

Well, it's a complicated busy picture out there. If you like to take your sailboat out on trips you might want to avoid these areas:

That's a lot of watery real estate on that map.

Elsewhere, there is a system that lies between Katia and Maria that is being watched. The moisture from that area is being tapped by Katia currently and she has sucked the energy out of it but it's possible it could develop. If so and if not it make you wonder if there could be some interaction between the three systems that the models are not taking into consideration. One... Katia is barely moving, Maria is racing and Nate is just feeling his groove.

Busy night for the guys at the NHC. No games tonight for those boys, they've got a lot of forecasting to do.

As for me...I'm watching. Making Maple Flavored Acorn Squash for dinner with Indian something over pink rice and just sitting here watching the tropics spin.

So much out there...and thankfully not that much headed towards a date with destiny as much as swimming with the mermaids and the fishies.

How much longer can our luck last in such a busy hurricane season. The NE is still cleaning up, Lee is still causing storms across the East Coast as his energy is everywhere like some homeopathic storm remedy and parts of him are falling all over the place. Irene left behind a bill of 1.5 Billion dollars and counting.

Sit a spell and watch the tropics spin with all those storms safely far away from us and only Nate causing some problems Mexico.

"THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHILITEPEC TO CELESTUN"

If I could make it rain in Texas I would, if I could, if I only could but the dry air that is causing the problem is keeping the hurricanes away...for now.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

Bobbi

Tropical Depression 14 Forms in the Atlantic

2011-09-06T15:04:00.001-07:00

A very healthy tropical depression I may add.

Stay tuned.

LOCATION...11.8N 37.0W
ABOUT 920 MI...1480 KM WSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1650 MI...2655 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

Sweet Tropical Dreams...
Bobbi

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QPKGLPPjWrs <-- one of my favorite songs

Waiting on Upgrade to TD14 or Maria... Strong Storms in the Carolinas

2011-09-06T12:55:00.000-07:00

On the laptop currently as I decided to leave the PC unplugged for a little while longer. Very strong Tstorms nearby and some cells with rotation around the area. Nice to see how Lee oozed his way this way after all. The low that was Lee is still to the south of here, however his moisture is all over the place.

The tropical wave that is unnamed should be named at 5pm. If not then, when?

She's looking pretty serious out in the Atlantic. Models bring her far enough west to start worrying and wondering if she will or if she won't recurve.

Either way the tropics are getting Active with a capital A.

Wind and rain and the threat of tornadoes has been an issue in the Piedmont and the Appalachians. In the Atlantic there are storms trying to form besides "Maria" who currently seems a done deal and is at 90% officially, though unofficially she is being referred to as TD14. Waiting on official confirmation.

So, let's get tracking and figuring out what to do with Maria.

As for anyone who wants to donate to areas already devastated by Irene or Lee, please click on this link and donate generously.

http://www.redcross.org/

Bonus pic, strange angle to look at Katia:

I have friends in the know who worry on this, hoping that low that was Lee knows which way to go and he takes Katia with him out to sea...

Besos Bobbi

Category 4 Katia & Soon to be Maria...

2011-09-05T20:22:00.000-07:00

Just updating y'all before going to bed, because it's not every day you get a Category FOUR Hurricane out there in the wide open Atlantic. I would think that the stronger she gets the more likely she is to move poleward (north), however sometimes funky things happen with such a strong storm. But, would assure a trip out to sea and don't think she will be a Cat 4 very long.

It's amazing that she is such a strong storm considering she is battling some shear on her NE side and the water there is minimal to support such a storm....however she is there and going strong.

Maria will most likely form tomorrow in the Central Atlantic, or at least become a tropical depression.

A new area in the Gulf of Mexico may pop up, however I'm skeptical and as much as I would love to wish rain on Texas the dry air that is filtering down into the Western side of the Gulf is not conducive to tropical development, still the models are whispering development. I do think in a week or so there will be something there.

Most intriguing is that there is one of those long thin leash sort of visual images from Katia back to the wave that will be Maria.

Then again, Katia being a Category 4 may dampen the tropical wave a bit. Tropical weather is all about transference of energy from the tropics to the poles and hard to ramp up while Katia is exploding. Then again........the longer it takes for "Maria" if she is in the Atlantic to form will keep her further west longer and well... that's not something to laugh at..

Nite... Sweet Tropical Dreams, BobbiStorm

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html

Great loop to watch...

Getting Closer to Naming Maria... Katia is a Major Hurricane

2011-09-05T18:48:00.000-07:00

The Navy site has a map grid up for Invest 95 which is a good indication that it is about to get an upgrade, possibly to Tropical Depression status.

In the Atlantic, Katia is going strong.

Stay Tuned... tomorrow should have a new girl on the block..

Water Logged Hurricane Season... Next on List Maria

2011-09-05T14:59:00.001-07:00

People are still cleaning up across the Northeast from Irene. The Weather Channel was able to get a special based on Irene's life, faster than the could clean up the mess. The clean up continues, some people are still without electric and the floods have not totally receded.

Yet we are watching Lee work it's way into a frontal boundary and invigorate it at the same time so much so that they are having twisters in Georgia while it is still raining in the Florida Panhandle.

Katia is a stunningly beautiful hurricane far out in the Atlantic and everyone is hoping she will stay out in the Atlantic so that people can continue cleaning up from Irene and Lee.

This evening I downloaded my first picture and set up my new file named "MARIA" as the tropical wave in the far off Atlantic already looks like she is a bona fide Tropical Depression. However, it seems the NHC wants to take a much needed break from issuing multiple advisories and possibly upgrade by way of sending out recon. Hard to believe that last part, though they would love to so do, as the new wave known as Invest 95 is rapidly looking like a system that begs for it's christening. The name will be Maria. A beautiful name for what could be a problem for the Southeast and Miami. I say Miami, not because I am from Miami, but because the models make a beeline for South Beach. Then again.........they have done that before with Emily and with Irene and we lucked out. Will our luck hold the rest of the season? Only time will tell but am hoping so...

It's raining in the Carolinas this afternoon as the violent energy from the day's storms in Georgia moves through on it's way NE. The threat of severe weather remains for the rest of the day.

Lee, despite all the dire predictions, did not go back out and loop around in the Gulf but joined forces with the cold front. Does that mean Katia will behave and curve out to sea? Probably.

Katia is now a CATEGORY THREE hurricane... a MAJOR... dancing in the Atlantic and hopefully pirouetting out to sea.

Nothing is for sure in the tropical world forever, but this looks like a good bet.

As for Maria waiting in the wings to take over as understudy and knock them dead on Broadway.... that script has yet to be completed and is still in rewrites.

So.... if you made it through this Labor Day Weekend with all your loved ones alive and well and you made some memories to last a life time....count your lucky stars!

2011 is most likely going to go down in history as the season when flooding occurred everywhere except for in Texas where they could use some rain really badly. The fires that have turned deadly are one of those odd imbalances that ends up in nature sometimes. One place can't get enough rain and another place it just won't stop raining!

Musical Link for today and yesterday and most likely tomorrow:

NE/NY Flooding:
http://www.rutlandherald.com/article/20110905/NEWS02/709059945/1004/NEWS03

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/05/nyregion/obama-visits-flood-ravaged-new-jersey.html

http://www.boston.com/news/local/vermont/articles/2011/09/05/more_flooding_possible_in_vermont/

http://www.reflector.com/news/irene-flooding-closes-parks-672749

Google "flooding" and you will see a flood of news stories all across the country.

Sweet Tropical Dreams...and hope Maria is a beautiful dream not a nightmare. Love that name...

Labor Day Vacation - Tropical Storm Lee does Nola & Hurricane Katia Intensifies

2011-09-04T04:43:00.001-07:00

Cliff Notes in the tropics....

Tropical Storm Lee made landfall in Louisiana earlier this morning. No one is sure if he stays onshore soaking the bayou and the beaches or if he is going to bounce south back into the Gulf of Mexico as the models are not in agreement and they are taking a holiday from agreement.

Hurricane Katia is spinning in the Atlantic moving closer towards a slim chance of a landfall along the beaches of the Carolinas later this week. She is going through a possible rapid intensification period where she may prove those models right that called for her to be a Major Hurricane later in the forecast period.

Models right now look like what we used to call "mishkabobble" when kids made scribble scrabbles for art work in Pre-School. One model goes right, one goes left and the National Hurricane Center draws a line and a cone down the middle.

And, today is smack dab in the middle of the Labor Day Vacation when I am very grateful that we are not tracking some rapidly intensifying Major Hurricane that is not bearing down on the Florida Keys as one did back on Labor Day of 1935. On that date in history hundreds of workers, American Veterans given the job of working on the Overseas Highway were swept out to sea along with many locals who were out enjoying what seemed to be a beautiful weekend. They were not lucky enough to have the great hurricane forecasts that we have now in the year 2011 from the National Hurricane Season. Remember them on Labor Day and appreciate how far we have come in hurricane forecasting.

Yup, it's Labor Day Weekend!

Am I the only one who finds it strange that the way we celebrate Labor Day is by taking a vacation from work?

Either way it's a great day to sit back and relax with family or alone with the pooch or take a drive out to (fill in the blank) and to stimulate some local economy with a little bit of your hard earned cash.

Up north winter is coming. Down south it's the start of SEC Football Season. In the tropics it's the heart of the Hurricane Season. For kids it's back to school. For people in New England it's a race for the pennant and watching the Red Sox move closer to the World Series.

If you live near a beach....go to the beach.
If you live near the mountains...go to the mountains.

Or... just stay home and enjoy whatever you enjoy most in life. And, ENJOY IT. Live it, love it... don't just sit around on the sidelines wimpy and wondering what to do. Do what you love.

As for me, I'm in bed wrapped up in a towel after taking a long morning shower, after a walk outside around sunrise and halfway through the Sunday paper. Looking for some good Sunday morning News show or just listening to the jazz fest on TWC as Lee spins at the bottom of the screen on what looks like the old BP spill watch, around and around he goes.

Not much is happening, a squall at the New Orleans airport just gusted 55 mph. We get those every few days in the summer in Miami in a thunderstorm. They are getting too much rain though and it's raining on the Labor Day festivals. Mike Seidel has his regular perch at the river's edge with the bridge behind him. You could probably piece together a lots of old footage of him there over the years in different storms and watch him age slowly :) It's okay, he's aging well..

Later I have vegetables on my plate, whatever really good vegetables I can find and some creative vegetable soup I'll make while doing my thing with my guy here in Carolina this Labor Day weekend.

What's your thing? Why aren't you doing it?

Today is a vacation from Labor and a celebration of the American worker..or anyone living in America working. Time for a holiday, one last summer holiday before the cold chill of Autumn begins to settle in.

The football season is so close I can smell it but this Sunday the gym is closed (no Bollywood class) and there are no real football games on TV and it's a day to just hang out, relax and possibly listen to the music.

Lee is swirling about in the Gulf of Mexico, still just off shore, still going every which way he can according to the models. It's like 7 blind men and an elephant all over again.

Katia is like Irene all over again and I'm beginning to believe that she is going to get a whole lot closer to the Carolinas than anyone here wants to see except for possibly me. I missed the earthquake, I was in Miami for Irene..I'd like to go to the beach later in the week and watch the waves as she comes close before turning just off shore and following the path of many a hurricane before her. Time will tell if she's a flirt or wants to cross the finish line.

Another storm is supposed to form down in the Caribbean in about 10 days time, it keeps showing up on long range models and if it pans out it will be one massive, major storm not some "not sure which way I want to go" tropical storm.

I've spent a lot of time traveling this year. I am not the world's best traveler, but I am learning. Most of all what I am learning is that there is beauty everywhere and sometimes the little spontaneous things you find are as wonderful as the tried and true favorites.

Maryland has great O-U Kosher Crab Flavored Potato Chips in almost every gas station or truck stop. What is that all about? But, seriously how can you pass up Kosher Crab Potato Chips?

Delaware is a beautiful state, absolutely beautiful. Farms as far as the eye can see, I could have convinced myself I was lost in Iowa somewhere... but no we were lost in Delaware. Old homes, turn of the century homes that you would think you'd see in Cape May or Key West but on a main street in Delaware.

Miami is beautiful, Miami is home. Miami is a cosmic adventure in Caribbean splendor alive and well in the United States of America. Whatever you want in the way of tropical delights you can find in South Florida.

Carolina has it's own beauty, though I think it's more beautiful along the coast. Azalea and Crepe Myrtle cover the lawns and decorate the highways the way bougainvillea decorates Miami in a fusion of explosive, intense color.

And, Crown Heights is forever the home of my heart. I can get lost walking up and down the hills of the Heights staring at rows of different style homes lined up one by one as if they were designed years ago just for a photographer to come and take pictures. Gentrification has come to Crown Heights and the city is planting sunflowers on the island they built in the middle of Empire Boulevard. Did you know on a clear day in Crown Heights from the roof of a condo you can look down on Matisyahu's home and out across Brooklyn into Manhattan and stare at the Empire State Building? Crown Height's is today is not yo mama's Crown Heights ;)

So.... find your center, enjoy your day and keep an eye on the tropics because we are very lucky this Labor Day Weekend that no Category Five storm is not bearing down on a beautiful beach about to rip someone's life apart.

Later this Labor Day I'm going to organize and post some pics from my summer vacations and I'll talk more in depth about the meteorological madness that is forecasting two tropical systems that seem to still want to do a tropical tango. As for me, no tango today because the gym is closed... no zumba... no work and no labor.
I could explain that the stagnant weather patterns are about to change ....but that would be too much like work and today is a holiday for me, even from the tropics.

Then again, 21 years ago on Labor Day I gave birth to my son Menachem Mendel :) Which just shows a mother's work is never done even on a holiday. Mendy was worth giving up the vacation day I may add...

So, unless you live down in the Bayou or along the coasts of Alabama or Mississippi or the Big Bend of Florida... go out, enjoy the sunshine, enjoy the weekend. Again, somewhere someone is sitting shiva for a loved one, somewhere someone is giving birth, somewhere in NJ, NY or Vermont someone is trying to clean up from Irene, somewhere someone is forced to work a shift today and can't be with their family... give thanks for what you can do and take a day to remember the American worker who gives their time and hard work to help build this great country and to bring home the vegetarian bacon and feed their families and pay their mortgage and so take a holiday today and tomorrow and pray for those who need a job, pray for those who are too depressed to open their eyes to the sunshine and enjoy life and pray for us to stay safe from Katia and the storms that form behind her because it's only just begun to be prime time in the tropics!

Besos Bobbi

Enjoy the Zydeco music in honor of Tropical Storm Lee's vacation to Louisiana on Labor Day Weekend of 2011..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uRRW3aine6Y

Tropical Tango

2011-09-03T20:09:00.000-07:00

Two Tropical Storms are doing a tropical tango and giving forecasters tropical troubles as they try to interpret models that show diverse solutions for the future tracks of these two storms.

Katia is looking better this evening, though far from a sure thing as to if and when she will be upgraded back to a Hurricane. Some models have recently kept her as a tropical storm while other models intensify her to a major hurricane. Flip flops are still in style it seems even though we are already into meteorological fall and getting closer to the heart of the hurricane season.

You see... first we have Katia approaching from the East, getting closer and closer to our side of the world. They say she is going NW but she looks like she is going WNW to me. Each model runs gets further west. This morning she was going to curve north into the Atlantic far from the North Carolina coastline. Tonight the European model has her just off shore... Hmnnn.

Why?

One reason could be that Lee, another tropical storm that is slowly drawing circles just offshore of Louisiana and Mississippi, is predicted to move s l o w l y into the Deep South and possibly become a cut off low. Or, she will grab the the cold front ride out of town and take Katia with her. The same front that could pick up Lee could take Katia out to sea. The same cold front that does not grab Lee might not grab Katia.

And, in between the two is a swirling, dancing, deepening upper level low that is swirling about creating wind shear and keeping Katia in check. That's good, but it's also bad because a weak Katia is more prone to more more west than north and hurt her chances of a free ride out of town.

Complicated mess we've got going on in the tropics tonight when it comes to forecasting.

Meanwhile, to complicate matters Lee still has multiple centers and only one of them is just south of making landfall meandering about in the Gulf while tons and tons of tropical moisture are being pumped up towards New Orleans and Bay St. Louis, Gulf Shores and Pensacola. As a matter of fact there is MORE moisture in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Again look at the picture above, all the deep color in the Gulf is not the center of Lee but the rest of him that is yet to be pulled up into the SE.

He's a messed up tropical storm and there is nothing simple about forecasting his future. You might do better investing in futures financially than trying to write a future forecast for Lee.

There is even a thought that the multiple centers of Lee are doing a Fujiwara dance around each other and that is what the models are trying to imply. Your guess is as good as mine, but Lee will be The Weather Channel's Labor Day Weekend Rating Telethon.

Later in the week they may hit the ratings sweepstakes with Katia threatening to make a US Landfall.

So, sit back and watch the show unfold. Because until Lee decides what Lee is going to do we may not know for sure what Katia is going to do.

They might just merge together, join their moisture and be a bigger flooding event than Irene was in the Northeast. Or they may not.

Now you see why weather is so interesting?

Have a nice weekend, if you don't live along the towns receiving torrential rains in the South from Lee then get out there and spend some money and enhance the economy a little with your one last dance with summer.

Sweet Tropical Dreams
Bobbi

WV Loop for both storms:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

Mambo #5 for your looping pleasure:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cPrOC2LcO9I

Tropical Depression 13 ... Questions with no answers & Katia moves West...

2011-09-01T19:58:00.000-07:00

There are more questions about Tropical Depression 13 that formed tonight in the Gulf of Mexico than there are possible centers. In Bobbi Language.. it's a big, messy area of multiple centers of convection all vying for the role of main center of circulation. The NHC went with one, the most prominent earlier but now a center further to the south and another area are looking stronger. Why they insisted on naming it tonight rather than tomorrow morning I don't know. Maybe they felt the need to post warnings or watches up or for people to take it seriously going into a long, 3 day weekend.

The wind probabilities cover the entire Gulf of Mexico, Tampa is exempt.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT3+shtml/020239.shtml

Tallahassee to Brownsville.. seriously?

The models look like modern art:

What's the NHC to do?

The easy money is on 13 eventually making landfall somewhere around Louisiana but I wouldn't bet money on it. It's also forecast to sit and circle and reform and not move much for the next day or so.

They say the front is not going to pick up #13, not strong enough.

It also looks like the same front isn't going to be lifting Katia anytime soon. Notice she is curving to the left in the last part of the cone... not away from land but towards it.

Seems like there are more questions than answers tonight in the tropics.

Personally, had a really good vegetarian Indian dinner tonight. Watched the Miami Dolphins win a pre-season game on my computer and the other night the Red Sox won. Yay!! That's almost a home run by me...

Now, if forecasting Irene and #13 were only as easy as figuring out what to make for dinner...

Sweet Tropical Dreams... unless you are working at the NHC ;) in which case I'd take some Tagamet with your nightcap!!

Tale of 2 Storms...Katia and Soon To Be Lee

2011-09-01T09:01:00.000-07:00

Katia

Soon to be Lee? Or eventually Lee??

Not sure I have ever seen so much hype about a storm that has not yet formed and not yet received a name. It doesn't even have a designated number... yet they are are evacuating from oil rigs in the Gulf already before the first advisory has been written.

Katia in the Atlantic looks beautiful, but far away and a crazy storm in the Gulf Of Mexico closer to home is getting all the media attention.

Note just the words "storm in the Gulf" and these are all the news links that came up in a Google Search:

U.S. Gulf coast should watch for possible storm-NHC‎
Reuters - Erwin Seba - Kristen Hays - 1 hour ago
Interests along the entire northern Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor the ... became a tropical storm, could pass over the coasts of Texas and Louisiana. ...
Baltimore Sun (blog)
Katia a hurricane, but too early to talk threat‎ msnbc.com
9&10 News - Examiner.com
all 914 news articles » RDS.A - APC
USA Today
►
Gasoline Strengthens Amid Threat of Storm Forming in Gulf Coast‎
Bloomberg - Paul Burkhardt - 2 hours ago
... in the Gulf of Mexico may become a tropical depression in the next day, ... is the possibility of the storm affecting refineries,” said Phil Flynn, ...
Blog: Gulf facililties move more ashore‎ Houston Chronicle (blog)
Energy cos. jump on brewing storms, Middle East‎ BusinessWeek
The Shut-In Begins‎ Inside Futures
Wall Street Journal - Reuters
all 55 news articles » APC - BP - CVX
Upstream Online

Okay.... so I mean what can you say about a storm that makes Emily look good. The models are all over the place and I do mean all over the place. This is where landfall will occur, according to the models:

Yet, I heard them advise people on TWC just now to "GAS UP THE CAR NOW" as lines may develop early ahead of the Labor Day Weekend. True... still to advise people to gas up now (vs buy some extra supplies) is a little nuts if you ask me and adds to people tending to freak before they know if they need to freak. Then again, seems we won't know where she goes for a while.

The problem with the Gulf is that storms spin up fast, really FAST and before you know it the storm is moving on shore from just off shore.

So...where will it go? I won't give my thoughts until it at least has an advisory.

Next name: Lee

As for Katia, seriously not thrilled with the latest models and though I would love to believe in a fish storm curving out to sea... the Outer Banks don't need another storm right now, even a brush with storm surf and there might be more than 200 feet missing from a few fishing piers.

Stay tuned... the Gulf is hot, hot, hot and somewhere, somehow, something is going to develop and dampen a lot of people's plans for the Labor Day weekend.

Besos Bobbi

Katia & Storms That Have Yet to Form

2011-08-31T18:21:00.000-07:00

So, I'm watching a Red Sox/Yankees game and the moment I start watching the Yankees come from behind and tie up the game. Am I a superstitious person? I don't know but if it's 3 and out in the next inning for the Red Sox I may turn it off.

In a few days we might have three storms on the maps.

What will Katia do? Probably curve out to sea, but just as probably she could move back towards the west and flirt with landfall. The reason we can't say for sure she is a fish is because other things are happening in the tropical world that have not happened yet.

We live in a world of models predicting development and they are currently doing that. Oil rigs are already pulling people off oil rigs and there is not even a tropical depression. Why? Private sector meteorologists who do private forecasting for specific companies and they don't have to worry on anything but getting their specific forecast correct. If they are wrong, clients don't keep paying them.

There are some funky models that show the system in the Gulf doing kinky things that cannot be properly explained here. It forms, it loops, it loops dee doops.. and if it does form will it have any interaction with Katia far off in the Atlantic moving west fast.

This is the graphic that shows mariners, going into a Labor Day Weekend where there might be hazards.

Tomorrow I will do a more in depth blog. Yesterday was traveling day and today was getting back to normal day. Am sore from Pilates and annoyed that the Red Sox are currently losing 5 to 4 of all scores to the Yankees.

Only time will tell what forms tomorrow and where exactly it will go.

Currently the Gulf Coast from the Tx/La border to Florida better pay attention tomorrow morning.

As for me... Jason Varitek just made a Home Run. Tied score.

Maybe tomorrow night at this time we will have two storms, for tonight it's just all speculation.

Sweet Tropical Dreams

Bobbi
Ps... I'm fine, just really tired from traveling and need one night to relax a bit more before I start going model crazy ;)

IRENE.... Gone, but left a legacy of Inland Flooding

2011-08-28T18:39:00.000-07:00

The irony of tonight is that although Hurricane Irene is gone, far away up in Canada somewhere.... her misery hangs on in the form of inland flooding and a climbing death toll.

This has always been an issue for me that bothered the heck out of me. Everyone focuses on the landfall, the sexy photo shot that the media races to get first...

"Coney Island Beach"

But, the beach took the storm just fine and up, far away, inland people died in motel rooms from floods and being rescued just in time from roof tops, a lot of people have died and the death toll is still climbing. Each death a personal drama with mourners and sadness and regrets of "what ifs" and what might have changed the end result. Just one or two different decisions and maybe... just maybe.... what if...

If only there was as much emphasis on the effects of Hurricanes far inland and less of a reliance to let the National Weather Service cover that part of the story.

I'm sorry...but it's like the NHC is Superman and the NWS is the understudy that no one pays attention to in the real world. That's wrong, because the NWS does their job and they do issue warnings but they do it in real time as the effects of the storm become evident, when the final path is figured out and when we figure out which model was right. There are no 3 day Flash Flood Warnings put out by the NWS and people who are glued to the television are only watching the cone put out by the NHC.

Reality bites and it bites hard far away from the beaches and points of landfall.

My daughter was out already at the beach in Brooklyn I believe, others I know went early on... staring out at the water and feeling the wind. Upstate and beyond the metropolitan areas the drama is still going on and will continue going on after Katia forms off the coast of Africa.

She's already gone, but her misery lives on and on.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6BWvqPm6GbU

Links to some sad stories that are still being played out tonight while Brooklyn and NYC cleans up.

http://www.stumbleupon.com/su/1s2CJA/www.vosizneias.com/wp/90278/2011/
08/28/brooklyn-woman-trapped-in-motel-found-dead-by-rescuers/

http://www.stumbleupon.com/su/1uVw8g/www.vosizneias.com/wp/90281/2011/08/28/
sullivan-county-ny-urgent-update-upstate-summer-residents-urged-to-remain-indoors/

(That's not a scene from the movie Houseboat...that's the real thing)

Vermont is really underwater in some areas, put "Vermont" into a Twitter feed and it goes on and on and on... miles of misery that Irene left behind.

.....for me it's been a long day after a long night and I'm going to bed early. It hit me tonight that it's Sunday night and the radio is quiet in my house and yet the song is playing on and on with all the illogical fragmented lyrics swirling timelessly in space so am ending this hear and putting up one last song.

For Matt:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6iP0q1xIkB4

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

Bobbi

NY 1 - Irene 0 Makes Landfall at Coney Island .. little damage in Brooklyn...

2011-08-28T09:38:00.000-07:00

This was for the NYC area mostly a tree trimmer storm.... as my son says, the word of the day is "foilage" and there is a lot of it all over Brooklyn and the rest of NYC.

As I said a few days ago after being at the beach with Irene... she never seemed to have the punch on the ground that she had up at flight level where her winds seemed stronger. Just a strange storm, large, hulking, big, lumbering her way north steadily and yet... mostly rain and flooding.

People are already back at the beach on Coney Island doing ummmm their thing that people do on Coney Island Beach I suppose. Great pic from Twitter:

Oddly other areas far from landfall are getting stronger winds than Crown Heights and Boro Park and Flatbush got and that's where most my sources were tho friends in NYC said the same.

The beaches on Long Island that were just right of the "eye" got the most storm surge and impact as beach cities often do. The lifeguard station came lose and blew into the pier on TV for all the world to see. Staten ISLAND had problems... and NJ has had a lot of minor damage and power is out to the multitudes there... not in NYC but in NJ, go figure.

North Carolina has already phoned home to say the damage was minor compared to other storms, a few piers damaged... minor beach damage, they are still checking and there was that mall in Goldsboro that lost it's roof.

People did lose their lives. It was a big storm that affected a lot of people across a wide geographic area and there will be stories for days to come.

This storm will be remembered by me as when I fell in love with Twitter. I finally, finally got Twitter, loved it... didn't post much as mostly I watched and learned but I will tweet more in the future and this is EARLY still in the season, not yet September.

Some stories worth mentioning:

There is a dog missing in Crown Heights, someone found it...everyone is trying to reunite it back with it's owner ;)

He's male, he's really sweet.... if you know his owner check out Twitter:

http://twitpic.com/6cb79v

Jason Kip took awesome pics and posted them and this is what Irene sounded like in NY:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MO9peQLkxLM

Not much more intense than she seemed in Miami or Raleigh tho at the height of the storm the beach was awesome and the Lower East Side was a little lower and under water. Far from the disaster movie scenario that TWC and History Channel have been advertising.

Info from one of the most beautiful towns anywhere Oriental, NC

http://towndock.net/news/irene-canoeing-the-streets-of-oriental?pg=1

The infamous video from the lifeguard station on TV slamming into the pier:

http://abclocal.go.com/wabc/video?id=8331381

One of my favorite tweets this morning, one that I agree with 100%

HaroldItz Harold Itzkowitz
by nydailynews
.@nydailynews is pummeling the @NewYorkPost and @nytimes on storm coverage far worse than #Irene pummeled the city.

The NY Daily News rocked with the best coverage anywhere... the NY Times did not even come close. Almost as good as Twitter feed...probably better.

LASTLY ....this is FAR from over... it's over in Brooklyn, but not around the rest of the area. There will be WIDE SPREAD INLAND FLOODING from this storm. That drama has just begun....

As to what happened to the South Side of Irene, I've seen a lot of storms weaken but rarely have I ever seen a storm weaken in the way Irene weakened last night. It's like it was a big cherry pie that someone came down and took a bit slice out of from 3pm to 6pm and it was just gone... "poof" and far from landfall in Coney Island there are strong winds on the tip of Long Island and in CT...

Everyone who made it through Irene safely should really offer a prayer of thanks and appreciate how bad it could have been and how many prayers were answered.

Either that or Irene Loves New York as much as most people do...

Prayers for those who are now suffering far away from NY and everyone please be careful, very careful cleaning up the debris and go slow... breathe, enjoy life, be happy and be careful.

And, remember the set up that brought Irene this way could bring another storm in a few weeks or another month.

We are far from out of the woods and really just getting into the thick of the tropical woods as we approach September in a few days.

LASTLY.... PLEASE BE CAREFUL OUT THERE... AS ALWAYS PEOPLE ARE DYING DURING THE AFTERMATH WHEN THEY MADE IT SAFELY THROUGH THE STORM. WIRES ARE OFTEN LIVE AND LYING IN PUDDLES.... BRANCHES FALL THAT WERE WEAKENED WHEN YOU ARE CLEANING UP. THIS HEART BREAKING STORY HAPPENED EARLIER, ALL ACROSS THE AREA IT WILL BE HAPPENING LATER TODAY. OFTEN MORE PEOPLE ARE KILLED CLEANING UP WHEN THEY LET THEIR GUARD DOWN. KEEP KIDS INSIDE, LET RESCUE CREWS DO THEIR THING... LET THE CITY DO THEIR THING AND RELAX, BREATHE AND REMEMBER IT SOMETIMES LOOKS BETTER THAN IT IS... THERE ARE HIDDEN DANGERS EVERYWHERE AFTER A STORM, EVEN A WEAK ONE...

http://www.theyeshivaworld.com/article.php?p=101563

So, keep watching and give thanks and just relax and enjoy the electricity that stayed on and watch TV, eat up your hurricane supplies and give thanks and enjoy life today in Brooklyn.

As for me, I'm in an online class with friends in Crown Heights and around the world which I didn't expect to have as I figured the electric and cell phones would be off. Loving it... after being up til almost 4am with my daughter on Facebook while we watched the Twitter feed together.

Besos Bobbi

Ps... the storm is gone but the danger is not gone, be careful cleaning up!

Hurricane Irene VS New York City

2011-08-27T23:59:00.000-07:00

Well, worst case scenarios have a way of sometimes coming true and in this case this seems to be a worst case scenario. You never know though, sometimes "mother nature" or some force we don't like to name out loud pulls an Ace out from up it's sleeve and sometimes, something changes.

At the moment Irene looks odd beyond words, it's as if the bottom part of her just disappeared on funktop and visible imagery. Will see. Even if she weakens dramatically before actually making landfall somewhere in the general NY/Long Island area the momentum of the storm surge and water being pushed out ahead of her will do damage via storm surge and fresh water flooding.

No matter what happens later this evening or early in the morning water is rushing into the subways, rolling down the stairs like little waterfalls down, down and further down into the subterranean world that is the NY Subway/Sewer system. How many people have watched as Superman had to go down there to deal with Lex Luthor or some such villain hiding out down there causing mayhem in the city above...or was that Metropolis...or was it NY? It's all the same... really... but is there a Superman to save the day?

Either way no matter how high the winds get...or don't get.. New York trees are not meant for storms like this and they break and fall down onto cars and block the streets below.

Even a best case/worst case scenario and it's gonna be a mess.

Further south in North Carolina the flooding in New Bern and Oriental was bad and damage along the coast from the high surf ripped apart piers and coastal structures. Here and there a tornado ripped the roof off of a building or complex. Raleigh managed pretty good, all in all. Everyone I spoke to is so far okay, hope that is true for everyone I didn't speak to... There was a lot of damage and there will be a lot of clean up. North Carolina is used to cleaning up...

And, the clean up will continue up the coast from Baltimore to Dover to New Jersey and well into New York and beyond into New England.

It's sad because it seems to be a real lose lose scenario. Either NYC gets slammed by a catastrophe or everyone cries foul and complains that there was hype and overkill on a minor storm. No one will be happy either way, except for those few glass half full types who will smile and thank the Lord and be grateful. Most will complain either way...which is sad because we need more people who smile and think positive and thank the powers that be when the worst does not happen.

As for me tonight, I was mesmerized by the crawl on the ticker on twitter that began to go crazy fast in the last few hours. Talking to one of my daughters who lives in Brooklyn and watching the other live feeds. All I could think of was that they have almost made television no longer newsworthy. Some stations keep abreast with great live tickers of their own.

One of the best tonight is the Daily Post ... they are incredible with the live feed of information.

http://live.nydailynews.com/Event/Storm_Tracker_Hurricane_Irene_2011

TWC has the Dream Team of Cantore and Norcross... one in the studio stuttering and looking nervous imparting information and Cantore out there in the elements howling. I wonder if Cantore deep down ever thought he'd really be covering a hurricane in Times Square or on the Battery? Yes, no ... maybe.

As for me.. I'm going to bed or going to pretend to...

We will know in a few more hours if an Ace was pulled out of the hat and somehow NYC was hit by Irene but if she dodged the big bullet. And, how bad the damage really will be.

It's funny, I was at the beach in Miami when Irene passed by offshore, more of my family was in Raleigh... an equal distance suffering the same squalls I suffered on Thursday up in Raleigh today...and tomorrow morning several of my kids will be dealing directly with Irene in New York City. I'm beginning to think the Meyer family should be working for TWC ;)

Good night and sweet tropical dreams and this will be the last time Irene is used on the list as sadly people died and the damage is torrential... like the rains and so say goodnight to Irene because she won't be around anymore to make jokes about as she is no longer a laughing matter.

Besos Bobbi

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tpl6ncyxLGw

Ps Sorry I was off so much tonight but sometimes even a tropical muse... has to take a break and be inspired and watch the events unfold while waiting for Superman to save Lois and the world...

Hurricane Irene 7 PM Friday Night... So, what really will be?

2011-08-26T15:20:00.000-07:00

Track:

I think basically most of New York will have a strong tropical storm. It is possible it will make landfall as a hurricane, but it's unlikely. The winds are decreasing in intensity, however the wind field is growing wider which is normal for hurricanes as they move north.

North Carolina will get a solid hit out on the Outer Banks, however they are pros at this. It is part of their lives, their history and as routine as going to the store is for some people or preparing for a Nor'easter in the Winter. The roads will wash out, a few houses will slide away and parts of the beaches will be rearranged. The outer banks get a secondary sort of storm as water washes over from the Atlantic to the Sound side and back again. Then again, that is why the Outer Banks look the way they do, as that has happened over and over since time began.

The big problem is that even if this storm comes in as a strong Tropical Storm or possible borderline Category 1 Hurricane it still can and will do a lot of damage in the New York area. People forget that Manhattan is an island, Brooklyn has a beach and both Queens and Brooklyn are filled with lots of bays and inlets and marshy areas. Staten Island is...duh an island. Both major airports are ON the water... which could put JFK and LGA out of commission for a day or two best case scenario. The subways can flood. The Holland Tunnel could flood. It will be a massive pain in the neck if the rain does fall and the flash floods do happen. It doesn't have to be a Category 3 Movie Disaster sort of storm... just a good strong Tropical Storm and or Hurricane is enough to make life a real pain in the Big Apple.

Everyone is erring on the side of caution and I am sure many instead of being grateful will be pissy and cry hype and complain. Be happy if all you get is a big mess and not terror at midnight!

Currently she is not strengthening but she is moving steadily towards multiple landfalls.

Here is a great site with intricate detail on flooding and maps down to street level and individual neighborhoods of NYC.

http://googlemapsmania.blogspot.com/2011/08/new-york-evacuation-zones-on-google.html

Use it if you need it and if you don't but know someone who might, pass it along.

http://project.wnyc.org/news-maps/hurricane-zones/hurricane-zones.html

Here's a good link from the Huffington Post on how to stay connected in a storm or try to....

http://project.wnyc.org/news-maps/hurricane-zones/hurricane-zones.html

Good luck...if the towers go all the fully charged batteries in the world won't help you...

From Bobbistorm: Remind loved ones you will call them and let them know where you are staying and not to worry if they can't get through, it usually means the circuits are busy and/or the towers are down. Keep your phone changed nonstop up until you lose power, keep it plugged in and then TEXT don't talk as it uses up less power.

A visual cornucopia of hurricane links and images from "Mike" :)

www.spaghettimodels.com

NC site: www.wral.com <---- the site everyone goes to in the RDU area and beyond.

Again...this is NOT Hurricane Floyd. This is NOT the Great 1938 New England Hurricane.

This IS Hurricane Irene.

From a historical perspective I want to show how storms that have hit the NE and Mid-Atlantic can and have done devastating damage from domes of water that were pushed inland on beach communities and where rain fell in amounts that caused flash flooding.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Hazel
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Gloria
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Donna

These three ladies did huge damage up and down the coastline both inland and at the ocean.

Another thing to remember about this storm is although it's satellite signature is of epic proportions it's mostly a massive rain event with tropical storm force winds. The cloud cover is only cloud cover far away and the rain and storm winds are closer to the center and the wide area around the center that is rapidly getting wider and the winds decrease in intensity.

Also.... NJ is getting it before NY so all those beach cities such as Atlantic City, Cape May are all under the gun as well.

Lastly.... I really think that it was overkill to insist this would come in up north as a Cat 2 and 3 as now people see it getting weaker in wind speed and they are less likely to prepare or take it seriously. You can't put the milk back in the container so easily so it is what it is... live it, enjoy it, remember it and stay safe in it!

As for me.. I'll be back after Shabbos and will be hoping my kids who are strung out across the Brooklyn area will be safe. As for my NC friends... I think they will be fine.. i hope..

Remember that cell fones go out... they go out fast. Stay calm, don't panic and watch the storm. And, if you never bought a battery operated radio (remember them...) or Weather Radio now would be a really good time to get one and while you are there.. buy a lot of batteries.

Besos Bobbi
Ps...a pic of the beach in Miami as Hurricane Irene passed by offshore. Very South Beach in a storm. Check out the jellyfish up and down the beach in the front of the pic.

Irene Heads to NC and NYC/Long Island then BOS

2011-08-26T08:33:00.000-07:00

This is like one of those long, slow, exhausting Yankee games against the Red Sox... a real nail biter.

First though we have to deal with it's approach and impact to North Carolina. The best bet is it will skirt the Outer Banks and inland NC will have some localized flooding and probably tree damage up to the I95 corridor. Raleigh will have sporadic bad weather and in any bad squall far from the storm trees can come down, roof damage can occur and you can have minor annoyances. But, the real danger is Dare County and places near the coast. Also, remember tornadoes can form in bands far from the eye so if you are near the cone...be careful.

The image above shows potential rainfall from Irene. It's huge. Then again I was in NYC the other day when JFK got the highest amount of rain it ever had in one day. If you add to that the issue of storm surge and more so water being funneled up though the inlets and bay areas around JFK airport that could create a real mess. NYC has said they will shut down subways in advance of the storm so don't delay in what you need to do and hope to catch the last train out of town from the Bronx to Brooklyn before the storm hits because you may spend the storm in the Bronx. If you need to do something, do it now. More so if you are Orthodox and keep the Jewish Sabbath or are a Seventh Day Adventist... do it NOW immediately because Saturday evening the storm will be bearing down and doing whatever it is going to do as it moves towards the NYC area. Storms up in the higher latitudes are fast movers.

In a New York Minute Irene will be there and you will be forced to deal with her up close and personal. The gas stations will be out of gas, ATM machines will not have cash and most of your favorite snack foods will be snapped up by people who didn't not wait til the last minute.

Best case scenario...the storm pulls right and skims Long Island and NYC/Crown Heights/Boro Park and Flatbush will only get strong winds for part of the day and a lot of rain. Those are the cities of my life so that is what I am writing about. I don't know much about Manhattan other than I love to walk around there. Crown Heights I know, it's called "Heights" for a reason so not worried on flooding though if you live in a basement... anything is possible. Flatbush closer to Coney Island is more of a problem. Boro Park should be okay, except again if you are in a basement.. especially one below ground you might want to rethink that...

There is always safety in numbers. If something breaks, if you hurt yourself trying at the last minute to secure a window that popped open...etc.. it's better to have an extra pair of hands.

BIG ISSUE ... AC Units. If you have an AC window unit that is not well secured it most likely will be sucked out by the low pressure and strong winds. It is better to take it out, secure the window and worry on it later. Yes, it is a pain. It will be more of a pain if 70 mph winds get into your apartment, trash your computer, television and your designer clothes or valuable books are ruined. If you refuse to take it out of the window, I'd suggest duct taping heavy plastic garbage bags around it (I know stubborn people) and possibly secure the unit or cover the area... it's best not to let strong winds into your humble abode.

Worst case scenario could be really bad... serious flooding way inland (NJ/PA/Upstate NY) and power outages and erratic looting. I hate to write that but after what has gone on in parts of Europe and in some cities after natural disasters I would not rule it out as an outlying, possible after effect of the storm.

If NYC could not handle a blizzard, how can it adequately handle a hurricane I wonder...

Find a place to stay during the storm. Hunker down. Stay there. Wait for an All Clear on the News before coming out and make sure it is safe to go out. Live wires will electrocute people... the dog really does NOT need to be walked. A mother and her son and the son's friend were killed during a weak storm in Miami because they just HAD to go out and walk the dog... a live wire in a puddle killed them all. Stay inside, you don't need to find a pizza store open on Coney Island Avenue an hour after the storm ended. Stay put.

As for Boston and points beyond in New England... Rhode Island should have a lot of problems with low lying areas and flooding... all of New England may deal with the storm but they will only know after they see if it makes the turn and the lag time between the turn and approach to it's next destination is not very much.

NOTE.. Though improbable it is very possible that this storm can go N..NNE all the way up into Canada and not out to sea.

Lastly the President spoke today from his vacation place on Martha's Vineyard (hope he's following evacuation orders) and spoke on the seriousness of this storm. He is right, it's not rocket science... prepare for the worst, hope for the best.

http://www.ready.gov/ is the site he mentioned first, but know that it is already hard to load and there is a lot of traffic. When your computer turns off because the electric is off you will not be able to go there so go there now.

GAS up.
CASH... go and get it NOW
STASH what you need.

Hunker down and wait it out. Stay safe.

It is personally hard for me to believe this will hit NYC with Category 2 wind speeds, but worst case scenarios do happen. I know because I was in Miami when Andrew drew a bulls eye around the city and headed towards it as a Category 5.

Worst case scenarios do happen... not often but they do.

Here in Miami I went to the beach yesterday. I found Irene much milder than I expected. I hope that is the case up north and that the beaches and cities in her path are on the weaker side and she bears to the right...

But, seriously only time will tell.

As for me I'm taking care of my mother in Miami and can't check in as much as I would like to. I'll post beach pics later when there are not more pressing problems, such as NC and NY and places in between.

I do believe prayers help... prayers for calm and strength and clarity and wisdom to know what your priorities are before and after the storm.

Take care and prepare and I'll be back with my thoughts around 6pm.

Besos Bobbi

Hurricane Irene Offshore Miami Beach.. Fears for NYC/NE

2011-08-25T07:21:00.000-07:00

I'm less worried on North Carolina as they are used to storms and this is par for the course. I mean it could get worse than expected but NC is in prime "prepare" mode and less worried on NC than I am NYC and New England.

If I am not sure yet what to tell my kids who live in Brooklyn there I am not sure what to write here.

For one.. we are getting more rain from bands in the storm earlier than expected according to the 11 PM local weather. They insisted a few passing bands in the morning and more later in the day. A big red blog came at us earlier, I watched it move south over North Bay Village as we drove to Miami Beach. Rather than passing fast over us like the earlier showers this band hunkered down with copious amounts of rain pounding the car and the sidewalk and it's still raining outside. Less wind than I expected, more rain. At the beach it IS windy...very windy, inland not as much.

Yup, sitting here at my old school at Touro South on a computer waiting for that big red spot in the outer band to move past us so I can go back outside and find a good spot to "enjoy" the next blob of intense rain in a band.

What worries me on that is that this huge system can possibly drown the NE and Mid-Atlantic (IE New Jersey and New York) with RAIN... flooding rains like they haven't seen from a tropical system in a long, long time. Might... may... could...not sure if it will. But, the possibility is here.

She would be moving slower than the 38 Hurricane that she's wrongly being compared to, because the only similarity is really the track. She could get absorbed and join forces with the trof making her a massive extra-tropical storm that could cover a good part of the United States in the NE. Could, might, may...will see.
So... my advice to anyone living in NY... inland or on the island and especially in the city is...

STASH
CASH
GAS

Stash up on the necessities... asthma meds, allergy meds, hydrogen peroxide and twinkies and drinks and canned food. Buy water... juice, tea and coca cola if you are a caffeine addict because warm coca cola is way better than not being able to make coffee when you need it. More so.. buy bottled Starbucks or cheap cans of coffee drinks as any coffee in a storm is a port in the storm. Trust me. After Andrew I was like "the hell with all this water, whey didn't I buy soda?" Mind, you we kept filling up used Publix Soda bottles... 3 days after Andrew I wondered why we didn't keep some Publix Cola Soda along with the water bottles. If you smoke... bite the bullet and buy extra cigarettes. Diapers for the babies, more than you think you will need.

Take CASH out of the bank today as there will be LONG lines filled with people in really crappy moods lining up on Flatbush Avenue and the banks and do you really need to deal with that tomorrow if you can do it today. Do not spend it...you can put it BACK in the bank later IF Irene follows the historically correct tracks out to sea and misses NYC and slides past Long Island. The ATM machines run out of cash and at some point the electric most likely will go out.

Gas up the car today. You are going to use it anyway later this week, don't wait for the gas stations to not have any gas and for people to be having fights at the gas station because they waited and are in a crappy mood.

The truth is IF the storm hits a lot of people will be cheerful and "wow we are having a hurricane" and the rest of the population will be in a really CRAPPY mood.

Knowledge is power, no one had knowledge in 1938 that a storm was coming...

The worst thing that can happen is you have extra food, gas and cash.

Obviously, if the rent is due on the 1st and you don't have money for both..buy what is cheapest and you need and pool together resources and stay with others, get some cash, get some gas... hunker down.

Hopefully... this storm will do what most the other storms always did and become weaker and fall apart and move further east but I would not bet money on it.
It's a hard call right now.

Watch what it does in North Carolina and see where she is tomorrow morning at this time.

As for Miami, we are such a magical, beautiful, lucky city to have dodged this bullet and to be able to sit in a restaurant and watch the outer bands slide over us while sipping cafecito and seeing the palm trees bend is about as good as it gets.
Let's hope she is so kind up north. Remember four days ago, three Miami was in the cone so hoping the same holds true for points to the north.

Just think, millions of people up and down the Eastern Seaboard are all looking at that storm and thinking, "Curve Irene, Curve out to sea"

As for me... I'm at the ocean trying to get a real feel for her. Until I see a storm at the ocean, really hard to be sure who she is and get a feel for her.

So far my feel is she is BIG and WET and even if she winds down and is not a Cat 2 or 3 or even a strong 1 on landfall that rain is not going anywhere fast and it will rain itself out somewhere up along the way wherever she goes.

If you live in an area that floods...do not stay there unless you want to get stuck there and if you do..an inflatable boat might be a real good investment.

Besos Bobbi

PS... the storm seems to have slowed down forward speed according to recent reports from recon... oh...okay....

Hurricane Irene & A Lesson In Hurricane History

2011-08-24T07:03:00.000-07:00

Okay, I'm going to speak straight from the heart here and tell it like it is....

I've been trying not to focus too much on this storm today, because I don't have much to add officially as officially I am towing the line that the NHC has cast and trying hard to believe in their forecasted turn away from Florida.

That's not easy for an "old time Floridian" like me... My family lived in Tampa, Jax, Quincy and Key West before making their way to the Magic City. My roots in Florida go back to the early 1880s. My family has seen a lot of storms and I have to tell you the truth... most of the storms we saw were because the original forecast did not pan out.

Donna stalled and drove forecasters crazy and did her dance across the Keys while we sat for days in the "dirty" part of the storm and the only thing I remember from my first day of school ever was the big Jamaican Tall Palm Tree that had fallen down from the storm across the street from my elementary school. I cannot tell you much about walking into the building (South Side Elementary) which was an old beautiful Miami school from probably the 1920s.... all I can remember is that big palm tree on it's side.

Fast forward to Cleo. The forecasters insisted she would get torn apart by the mountains of Cuba. I loved Bob Weaver but you could read his face when he was watching her make it across and as she bobbled off of land and plopped herself into the Florida Straits that Cleo was looking stronger than they expected. I didn't understand weather back then... I knew maps and I knew his expressions and I knew we were getting Cleo and we did... Lost an avocado tree in the backyard, took days for the neighborhood to cut it apart and help the elderly people who lived behind us. Toads the size of Kansas were sucked out of the ground and buried... honest, why I don't know but Mike across the street insisted I look as he shoveled them into a pile. We lived out near the Glades...

They said Betsy was going to miss Miami and head towards the Carolinas.. there was a front (there is always a front it seems) and she stalled and sputtered and threatened the Carolinas. And, then she turned South...SW... everyone said she was looping and they don't do that long. She did it long enough to stall a bit off the Florida coast and turn west in the Keys giving us the dirty side of the storm.. We used up old Miami News newspapers that said, "Betsy Gone For Good" to catch water leaking in through the jalousies.

They insisted we would get Inez but all we got was more school and Inez went somewhere else suddenly.

By this time... I knew boys were adorable and cute and storms were fickle and they don't always follow the forecast.

Fast forward past those years I lived in LA and missed David from afar the same way David missed Miami... to fast forward to Andrew and let's skip over the small Floyd that came our way and blew down our Sukkoth we erected for a Jewish Holiday in October that specializes in temporary structures...which are easy to take down..

Andrew was headed towards the Carolinas. We had fancy new models and great weather forecasters and we came along ways since Betsy and guess what... The front in
August bombed out and rather than deepening and exploding it went poof in the wind and oh gee wiz but Andrew intensified more than they thought and turned west and never looked back.

I could go on and on... about blown forecasts and dreams that never came true.

The reality is that Hurricanes are fickle in that the slightest change in the atmosphere far, far away on the wings of a hyperactive butterfly can change the course of the storm just enough that extrapolated it makes landfall close to your town or over your town. And, the NHC changes it's forecast in real time and tells you that ... it was in the possible Cone to do that...

Floyd did turn, closer than we thought originally but he did turn.

They are getting better and better. Today we laugh at the old Aviation Model that Brian Norcross showed on tv to explain his fears about Andrew. Twenty years from now we will laugh hysterically at the GFDL and HWRF models and wax poetic on how wonderful our new methods are when it comes to storm forecasting. The one constant is we always think we know so much more and the one constant is that these hurricanes often surprise us. Advice from a Floridian ... don't turn your back on them, watch them and pray and hope they pass our beautiful magical city.

I remember sand being taken out of the lobby of the Deauville after a storm hit that wasn't supposed to hit. I remember a lot. I also remember a few storms that did actually follow the five day forecasted track. You just never know until it's over and it's history not a forecast.

The Gulf Stream Jet is going out again today. I hope it doesn't find any surprises... I do so love that Gulfstream Jet. Please lobby and bother your government officials to allow NOAA more money not less for forecasting tools like the Gulfstream Jet and Recon.. there is no substitute for being in the eye of the storm and being able to measure what is vs what we think we can see from the satellite imagery.

As for Irene.. My son has blinked and we are going shopping for school supplies. He goes to the Hebrew Academy on Miami Beach a block from the ocean and school starts tomorrow. I'm buying school supplies vs hurricane supplies today. It's his senior year. He will look back and remember what I remember from my first year of elementary school. Hurricanes and the Start of School in Miami go together like notebooks and uniforms. And, although the notebooks are now electronic... hurricanes and the start of school are Miami kid's memories. It's just that time of year in Miami, we call it Hurricane Season.

It's a great school. A great place to live. A great way to live. Sometimes hurricanes come and rearrange the landscape a bit but in the end, there's no place like it anywhere and I've lived a lot of places.

So, crank up the AC and put on a happy face and pretend to believe the forecasters and don't worry about Category Three Hurricane Irene moving our way and closing in on Category 4 status and do not think about the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926.. or Betsy or Andrew.

The 11 AM is out... she's moving NW (big smile and sigh) and I'm going shopping for school supplies. It's okay, my brother has a stack of hurricane supplies that will last through the entire 2011 Hurricane Season ;)

Just listen to the music and cast your fate to the wind...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ADPgTmca6Zs

Besos Bobbi
Straight from the heart :)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sfK6NJlKf34

The beach where my son's school is in 1926 after the Great Miami Hurricane... just about exactly give or take a block from the school...

Irene, Building a Cat 3 Hurricane In the Bahamas Tonight

2011-08-23T21:28:00.000-07:00

First off, I took a little time off today from the computer and decided not to post too much. There really isn't much to say as the models are all in "excellent" agreement and as long as they continue to stay in agreement and no family feud breaks out I am a happy camper and not as worried as I was last night.

As the NHC said earlier, thankfully they have the Gulfstream Jet out there and two other planes and there is so much data coming in ... hard to believe they could be missing anything. Then again if one good model blinks and burps to the west I am going to wake up and worry again.

Meanwhile, the earth decided to put on a show this afternoon and there was a 5.8 earthquake in Virginia that I imagine even Martians in Green Tunnels under the Red Planet heard about! I had 3 phones calls in rapid succession from North Carolina all at the same moment in history. My daughter in Crown Heights texted me and asked me if they were having a quake as well. Just sort of pathetically ironic that as we sit and talk about whether North Carolina will or won't get a hurricane they get a quake. Typical as Mother Nature has a wicked sense of humor.

I really do believe that this storm will most likely just clip the Outer Banks if at all and depending on the angle go out to sea or give Long Island a good run for it's money as it moves north towards Cape Cod and Martha's Vineyard. Not 100% sure but pretty sure.

Please note the nice bumper sticker at the top of the page. Cars all over the Carolinas have those bumper stickers on their car. Do you know why? Because they are one of the most visited spots on the Planet by Hurricanes.

It's possible it will come in lower, but it better stay away from my favorite places in Myrtle Beach.

But, for tonight... Irene is building a Major Hurricane. She is possibly going through some eye wall replacement cycle.. if so watch out. She's going to get leaner, meaner and stronger.

As for me... I could wax poetic on the 19th anniversary of Hurricane Andrew tonight, but I am not going to. Maybe tomorrow morning.

Suffice it to say 19 years ago I was on the floor of an old two story house on Miami Beach feeling the wind slam into the building and at the height of the storm ... at moments you could hear the roar of the Ocean about five blocks away, maybe four depending on how you count Indian Creek. A house to the East of us two blocks away lost it's roof as it sailed off the top of the house on Flamingo Drive and landed in the yard of the house on Pine Tree. A few of the pine trees on Pine Tree came down. I think it might have been a tornado. Who really knows... we survived, we were fine, we were blessed and all of my family and my 7 month old baby girl who spent most of the night underneath me was fine. Today she called me from Crown Heights and asked me if they were having an Earthquake...

Such is the way of the world. This is a living, breathing planet that is always in flow, stretching in all directions. Volcanoes, Earthquakes, Hurricanes, Tornadoes and Tsunamis all contribute to the way the planet looks and feels. The coastline of the United States on the Atlantic side has been trimmed and manicured by thousands of passing hurricanes over time. People are surprised that Virginia had an earthquake? Why? They have mountains .... how do you think they got there? Fault lines..

It's all Mother Nature's fault.. don't you know?

I'm going to bed... hopefully as we sleep the models will stay in perfect, excellent agreement.

Last night I couldn't get Carole King songs out of my mind, tonight they make a lot of sense.

Looping music:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hoHuxpa4h48

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/index.php?region=tropics&channel=wv

Sweet Tropical Dreams

Bobbi

Models Agree on Irene Missing Florida... Aims at Carolinas

2011-08-23T08:19:00.001-07:00

The data from the Gulfstream Jet last night helped the models put out better data that was more in agreement and it looks this morning like Florida gets to miss Irene however, the jury is still out on the Carolinas.

I still think this storm is more Floyd than Fran.

I still think until we see the turn take place and she moves north of our latitude or your latitude you don't turn your back on Irene and feel safe.

So... I'd keep watching in South Florida and South Carolina.

I think if it does make the predicated turn...it will keep on turning and only affect the Outer Banks if at all in North Carolina.

Am going to post later after 5 when we see what Irene has done today.

Mind you she is moving slow and she has a lot of running room.

Enjoy the ability to breathe a bit easier if you live in Florida today... go out, enjoy the weather and give thanks and hope it stays that way!

Cause you never really know as tropical weather is very fluid....

Greg Fishel in Raleigh is great and this is an excellent blog with good information for up the coast in the Carolinas and beyond.

http://blogs.wavy.com/2011/08/23/irene-near-hispaniola/

Besos Bobbi

PS... I really LOVE the new wave off of Africa...but for now there are bigger fish to fry...

Can't Sleep... Irene Spinning Down Below... Where will you go Irene

2011-08-22T23:10:00.000-07:00

Old haunting tune, just played on the radio... goes so well with this loop. Loop the loop and listen to the haunting song...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nSz16ngdsG0

More worried on things I am seeing on the Water Vapor Loop.

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/satanim.cgi?chnl=wv&domain=bah&res=4km&size=large&period=720&incr=30&rr=900&
banner=mkwc&satplat=goeseast&overlay=off&animtype=flash

One last loop... going to bed...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

Don't like what's behind Irene... that high is going kinky things.
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif
looping music: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mhL36vP_lv4&feature=fvwrel

Not as kinky as this radio...

Hey so far, she's skimmed land and avoided a harsh landfall... changing the channel and going to bed. Hope she avoids everyone in her path..

There's Something About a Cat 4 Hurricane Off of Miami... Irene at 11PM

2011-08-22T20:53:00.000-07:00

There's something about a hurricane in the Turks and Caicos that suddenly makes it seem a lot closer to Miami. There's also something about a possible Category 4 storm off the coast of Miami on Thursday that makes even a chatterbox like me quiet.

I've been staring at a loop for a while now, obviously too long and after talking to my best friend and my brother... I'm still not sure what to say except that I have a bad feeling about this and unless she jogs north a lot fast and/or the models pull east fast I think this is about as close at it gets to a worst case scenario for Miami.

Mind you..many a storm has cruised by on it's way north along 77w or 78w. Floyd was such a storm. Somehow though I think this could get closer than Floyd. I remember Floyd well, made several trips to the beach... took tons of pictures and sat late at night watching the foamy surf pounding in. The roar of the wind was the strongest I've heard since Andrew. While taking pics, a wave grabbed me.. I tossed the camera onto the beach and spent the next several days trying to take sand out of parts of my body I do not want to mention on this blog. Got great shots... the sand had a feel to it that I have never felt before. Hard, gritty, churned up from places far away and left behind as Floyd went north. Not your typical Haulover sand...

Reed Timmer tweeted this earlier and it sounded logical and possible. A similar sort of track, though Floyd started out higher and turned faster and it was obviously a different sort of high. Different time of year too.

I like Reed, he's smart and fun and has energy and he's right... similar feel to Floyd.

@reedtimmerTVN
Reed Timmer
Irene reminds me a lot of Hurricane Floyd.. first tropical cyclone I chased. Floyd was initially heading for Florida as well

First storm I got great pictures of myself as it sailed past Miami.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Floyd

Floyd was a really big, huge system much like Irene is and will be.

Miami has the following wind speed probabilities at 11PM tonight, Monday... pretty high odds if I was a betting person:

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)

FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 36(37) 25(62) 1(63)
FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 17(28) 1(29)
FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12)

W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 43(45) 16(61) 1(62)
W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 13(29) X(29)
W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12)

MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 35(38) 10(48) 1(49)
MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 7(20) X(20)
MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7)

I know I am focusing on Miami but Miami would be one of the first cities to be impacted in the U.S. by this storm IF the high built in or the steering currents shifted. The discussion out of the Hurricane Center tonight was not very convincing and they left a door wide enough to sail a cruise ship through as to just where this storm will be on the 4th and 5th day.

Note below:

THE NHC FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
THROUGH 48 HOURS AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND HWRF
MODELS AFTER THAT TIME....

.....IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMIND USERS NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST
TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR
AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...
RESPECTIVELY.

So, I'm going to leave you with this question by my best friend a little while ago:
"what the hell kind of a storm turns into a cat 2 storm while still it's over Hispaniola??" And, she thinks it will be a Cat 3 sooner rather than later.

Going to post some links below and try to go to bed.

As for me.. I plan to go to the beach on Wednesday. I also plan on having strong winds on Thursday. I plan on praying a lot. I have a plan, but really who has a good plan for a Category 4 storm flirting with making landfall in Miami? Will see. It's a long ways away. Just looks closer on certain satellite images, and then.. it will look a lot closer tomorrow night at this time.

I predict panic level in Miami to set in around 5pm tomorrow unless something big time changes with this track.

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/goes/Storm/Tropics/latest_wv.jpg

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/index.php?region=tropics&channel=wv

Sort of speechless watching this link:

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/CaribbeanSatellite.aspx?animate=true

An excellent forecaster in Raleigh weighs in:

http://www.wral.com/weather/story/10028170/

A beach I think could get this storm is Ocean Isle Beach, a beautiful south facing beach in North Carolina though it could just as easily could and most likely will affect Wilmington if it affects anywhere. Great place OIB, take a visit and enjoy:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_Isle_Beach,_North_Carolina

Let's see where she is at 5am and how big she is and how her track has changed.

Sweet Tropical Dreams, Bobbi

Category 2 Hurricane Irene & Morbid Curiosity

2011-08-22T16:09:00.000-07:00

I have received emails from people as far away as Maine and as close as Miami. Everyone seems to have Irene's name written on their house. It's been a long time since I have seen a storm that threatens everyone from Miami north as far as Maine and Long Island.

Truth is there is a hurricane partially over land in the tropics that is intensifying and that to me is an odd thing to happen. Rather than the Dominican Republic taking a bite out of Irene, Irene seems to be taking a bite out of the Dominican Republican as she hovers just off shore and her SW quadrant firmly on land. She has gotten wider, bigger, stronger.

The GFDL had her doing that and I thought the GFDL was smoking something. Now, I'm wondering what the GFDL saw the others didn't see and hoping it's wrong in it's Category 4 Miami landfall scenario. Quietly waiting here for the next run..

Out of morbid curiosity I went down to street level on a fantastic model site and I see it comes in just south of Gables Estates around SW Guadalajara Streets down in Pinecrest, it moves it across Old Cutler Road and up towards SW 125th Street towards Dixie Highway and keeps on going near Dadeland Shopping Center and out towards Village Green off of Bird Road. It's like Irene would be traveling the streets of my childhood. The next run will probably bring it over Miami a bit further to the east near the Road Section and Brickell or destroy Hollywood Boardwalk :(

Of course, there is a good chance that it's going over Raleigh and I'll miss that one while I'm back home in Miami, how's that for irony?

You play with it. Great site Channel 7 has in Miami and a really great job Phil Ferro does going over all possible scenarios. I am very impressed.

http://www.wsvn.com/weather/hurricane/models/

What do I think?

I think that Irene is missing the "for sure" trof and I am not sold on the new system that is supposed to lift her sharply north.

And, it's too soon to tell. A lot depends on Irene herself.

A Major Hurricane carries a large high a loft that tends to sometimes strengthen the high and help it build it vs retreating. They also tend to keep on going in the direction they were going due to inertia and other laws of science I am not up to explaining but suffice it to say... they turn slower and continue on trucking in the direction they choose. It's a factor that is a wild card and IF that happens and plays out, then we will see what we will see.

The incredible Gulfstream Jet is going out later and it's going to sample the atmosphere around the storm and up stream of it where it will go and with that data the next set of models should be much better.

At some point, someone round here is going to have to decide if Miami Dade County and Broward get a watch or warning, glad I don't have to make that call.

And, in Charleston weather people are eyeing Irene as seriously as we are with butterflies in their stomach and dreams of Hugo dancing in their head.

Maybe someone is living in Mt. Pleasant morbidly trying to figure out on google earth just what street Irene slams into their town.

And, remember it's a long way out and models shift and cones track and nothing is set in stone, it's fluid and the world's most fascinating reality show happening in front of us in real time.

I only hope and pray that Irene continues to miss making a dead on landfall as she has done so far... maybe come dangerously close to South Florida (like the NAM) and slide past Cape Hatteras and keep on going missing Long Island? What do you say? Can we make a group prayer here.

All I know is since day one... I was sure that Irene would crawl across the north coast of Hispaniola and go "up over the islands" and beyond that... I am still not sure but I think it's gonna be a close call.

Look at her... Category 2 in all her beauty.

Again... why is she getting stronger over land and which model saw that coming?

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011

DATA FROM THE LAST AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AROUND 1700
UTC INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS STEADY AND THE WINDS
HAVE NOT CHANGED DURING THE DAY. SINCE THEN...HIGH RESOLUTION
SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL SOME CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND A
CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...SUGGESTING THAT IRENE
COULD BE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING

Again... the newest advisory confirms that she is strengthening.

"7:50 PM AST Mon Aug 22
Location: 19.7°N 68.7°W
Max sustained: 100 mph
Moving: WNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 981 mb"

That's a real ummmmmmmmmmmm and it worries me that the GFDL called that.

Great link:
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/stormspotlight.php?year=2011&storm=9

Take care and I'll be back later with more thoughts when we know more.

What do I really know? I'm going to the beach on Wednesday, that I know for sure.. beyond that... only time will tell.

Sweet Tropical Dreams, Bobbi

PS... since I hit send the new model came out and takes the GFDL over my friend's house in Boca.... so glad Gables Estates is off the hook. Is anyone off the hook for sure.

At 5PM the NHC Discussion was as follows:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 19.5N 68.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 20.1N 70.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 20.8N 72.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 21.5N 74.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 23.0N 75.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 26.0N 78.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 29.5N 79.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 34.0N 79.0W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

HOWEVER, in less then THREE hours she was at 100 MPH???
That's a real busted forecast in my eyes, why is the question..

So.... I leave you with this question... I'd like an answer....

The National Hurricane Center predicted at 5 PM that Irene would be a Category 2 in 24 hours. THREE HOURS LATER.... Irene is a Category 2 with 100 mph sustained winds. IF the NHC missed the intensity forecast that badly... I have low confidence in the rest of the forecast. You can't get the intensity wrong and the track right....

Hurricane Irene at 2pm 80 MPH moving WNW at 12 mph

2011-08-22T10:59:00.001-07:00

Quick update here.... and I will post at length later this afternoon after the 5pm comes out.

The Navy puts out a map that is most excellent and worth keeping an eye on:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_pregen_sat/PUBLIC/tc_pages/pages/tc11/
ATL/09L.IRENE/ssmi/gif/full/Latest.html

With every jog west or north the track will change a little bit. it is important to remember that the 4 and 5 day forecast is prone to errors of over 200 miles which is why the cone is so wide at the end of the cone. The 3 day cone is excellent and if you are in the 3 day cone... prepare.

Everyone from Florida to Long Island seems to feel "they will get the storm" and yet there is no lock in on the track. No "for sure" track. Many possibilities and probably closest to what the NHC says currently.

Personally, I feel like if it pulls north it is more likely to pull further north than the Charleston and landfall would be closer to Wilmington. IF the high digs in and the fronts weaken, she will move closer to Florida.. much closer. It's an either or scenario.

It's really a matter of climo vs the storm. Very few storms have taken the track from where she is now to where the NHC has her coming in around Charleston in their current map. I am not saying that couldn't happen, am just saying Irene would be the first it seems.

I'll be back later. If you are not in the 3 day cone... relax, think, watch and stay prepared because again if this one does not get you.. the next one might.

Besos Bobbi

Ps note that this is predicated to be a Major Hurricane... and a Major Hurricane can and often will change the steering currents which becomes a factor down the line.

Irene Intensifying ... good news/bad news

2011-08-21T19:06:00.000-07:00

I know how my mother feels, she is right and I have to admit it. It's the same old story all the time. The newsmen tell you that the high mountains of Hispaniola will disrupt the storm. As she says, "I'm not stupid, been watching these storms for 50 years and then they come off of Haiti and Cuba and hit the hot water and intensify again." And... she's right.

A weak storm that is not "vertically stacked" falls apart over Haiti. A strong storm that IS "vertically stacked" and that is HUGE can make it across Hispaniola a whole lot easier. Then again other factors come into play, such as forward speed. Georges kept on going...

Vertically stacked means vertically it is "together" unlike some storms where the lower level core is displaced from the mid level circulation. When a storm is properly stacked she is like a Diva.... she intensifies rapidly, she evacuates air out properly, she fans out and become a large round ball with bands feeding the storm with more moisture. She becomes a lean, mean fighting machine capable of setting off the same amount of energy as an Atom bomb... or stronger. Katrina and Camille are two storms that are perfect examples.

I am not saying that tonight at 10:30 Irene is there yet, I am saying she could be there sooner rather than later.

I've watched Irene all night, while dealing with some personal family drama. Sort of speechless at the way she is doing her thing down there and we are doing our thing up here...which is watching and waiting. The weather radio says "possible tropical storm force winds or hurricane force winds Thursday" yet everyone online is trying to wish the storm towards their particular part of the world in some morbid fascination with "I want a storm, I want a storm" and then when it's a Major they are suddenly, "No, I don't want the storm, I don't..." Maybe it's the way we deal with life, some moth to the flame fascination.

I'm often accused of "loving hurricanes" and to that I will agree but I like to love them when they are safely out to sea and just close enough for me to go to the beach and feel their breeze.

My mother is right. This is one of those storms and the forecasters will try to explain fifty ways we won't get this storm when we all know it's very possible we will and the NHC keeps their cone just close enough to not be able to sleep well at night.

Tonight is a good night for sleeping, there isn't much you can do. If you are in Puerto Rico it is a bad night for sleeping and a good night for hunkering down and listening to the wind and saying thanks to God that she did not get any stronger.

I tried to convince my mother to go to bed. She's already got her bag semi packed to go to my brother's house, even though her condo here which is well sheltered between buildings and on a low floor and has an inner room is probably safer than Casa Schwartz as we call it. I tried to get her to go to bed, I told her I was going to bed. She told me, "Aren't you staying up for the 11 pm advisory??"

My father had Alzheimer's. She does not. And, she knows a thing or do about reading between the lines when it comes to hurricanes in Miami. She monitors the weather, tries to read every line on the bottom of the scroll as her hearing is bad. Not so bad that she did not hear them say it might be coming this way.

Run this loop:
http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/satanim.cgi?chnl=wv&domain=bah&res=4km&size=large&period=720&incr=30&rr=
900&banner=mkwc&satplat=goeseast&overlay=off&animtype=flash

You really don't need to wait for recon to send a report nor do you have to see if the NHC will up it to Hurricane at 11 or just let it flirt with Hurricane strength.

But we will wait...and we watch and that is all we can do with a storm this far away.

My biggest problem with this, other than worrying it's going to make landfall at stronger than a Category 2 is the shear size of her cloud shield. She would cover the state of Florida and half of Georgia at this rate. She is one of those really, big classic Cape Verde sort of storms. She has a high aloft and she's got a lot of living to do... to quote a song.

So.... monitor, plan, watch carefully and in between get out there and enjoy life and the beautiful breeze because that same beautiful, non-stop breeze I am feeling tonight in Miami may indeed bring trouble this way.

Great site for tonight as Irene begins to ravage Puerto Rico:

http://www.stormcarib.com/

My prayers go out tonight to the people or Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, they are the ones dealing directly with Irene vs playing a "what if" game.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=11101110&loop=yes

The question remains tonight, how many times can you hit refresh even when you get the advisory texted and emailed to your account?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#IRENE

Okay.... two thoughts on the 11 PM which is finally in...

1... They kept it a Tropical Storm but I really think that's debatable. Not enough definitive information from recon most likely. 70 mph is flirting with Hurricane intensity.

2... Tropical Storm warnings up for the Turks and the Caicos. That is when people in South Florida begin to listen up...

11 PM

LOCATION...17.9N 65.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM WNW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES

3... (extra credit) "TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM FROM THE CENTER. " Tropical Storm force winds extend out really far, note again what I said about this being a BIG storm size wise.

Nite.... from Miami, Sweet Tropical Dreams Bobbi
Ps... I can hear her moving around out there, my mother... not Irene...she's going to watch the 11pm... going to be a long week around here.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/024913.shtml?5day?large#contents

Home in Miami... or as my "friend" calls it "Ground Zero"

2011-08-21T11:46:00.000-07:00

He has such a good sense of humor....

To be honest, this far out most of Florida is Ground Zero as is Nassau and Bimini.

It's just too soon to tell and that's the truth.

It's not too soon to stock up on hurricane supplies "just in case" and make a plan.

And, that might just go for you folks up in Charleston as well:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/GFSTROPATL_12z/gfsloop.html

Every model is whacky this afternoon. One takes it into the Gulf and the other zooms it up offshore Florida into the Carolinas.

Today Miami is "Ground Zero" tomorrow it might be your town...

As the plane landed this morning, the pilot announced a gentle breeze out of the Southeast. And, I thought to myself... "damn" as beautiful as the Southeast breeze is in South Florida it is that very same Southeast Breeze that could bring Irene this way...

This is why we love www.flhurricane.com...excellent discussion and analysis as always:

http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=91345&page=0&fpart=2&vc=1

The 12Z Model Run Down:
GFDL does not really grasp it at all, and shuffles it to the west and keeps it an open wave.
HRWF takes it over eastern Cuba and the run ends just before approaching South Florida. as a hurricane
EURO In caribbean, south of Haiti, through Eastern Cuba, up into South Floida and along the spine of Florida along the eastern side of the state. as a hurricane
GFS Operational: In Caribbean South of Haiti, Through Eastern Cuba, up into the Keys Friday, and straight up the center of Florida, leaving the dirty (NE)( side of the system in S. Fl, E CFl, and Jax. as a hurricane
Canadian: In Caribbean, Over Jamaica, over Western Cuba into the eastern Gulf. Run Ends before US Landfall.
NOGAPS: Caribbean, over haiti, eastern Cuba, into Eastern Gulf, and then near Tampa at end of the Run.
TVCN: Into Southeast Florida, and through the Spine of the State, out at Jacksonville.

I can't say it better that that. But, if you live and die by the models you will have a nervous breakdown by Tuesday, possibly Monday... They will swing back and forth and the National Hurricane Center will do the best job it can do to unscramble all the data and put it into a reliable format that we can all understand.

NOTE: That scenario over Florida with the East Coast cities being on the Dirty Side would be a bad scenario and effect many, many people.

People are shopping a bit today. Publix is putting out the water and batteries display, the water is slowly going. They will restock tomorrow. A lot depends, they told me, on what the track is at 5am tomorrow. We take it day by day, sunrise by sunrise in the tropics.

So... until we get to a strong 3 day cone with Miami in it... I'm not going to panic. Just going to do my thing with my friends and watch the storm as she moves west towards Puerto Rico.

Besos Bobbi
Ps...watch for the models that stay the most consistent, not the ones that wildly go right when the storm temporarily "relocates" a bit more to the east or north or etc, you get the idea. Watch the storm and she is forming a CDO which looks a lot like an eye, yet they insist she isn't stronger wind wise... hmmmm. Easy to say some dry air has entrained itself into the storm but in the exact middle of the strongest convection? That's a big "hmmmmmnnn" and I'm curious to see what they will say at 5PM. For now the 5 day forecast in Miami is for "wind" on Thursday and Friday...

Ps sorry for the italics but that's what happens when you post and talk to Sharon at the same time ;)

Irene Pulling Herself Together Nicely

2011-08-21T05:52:00.000-07:00

Tropical Storm Irene is passing over Martinique and the Leeward Islands this morning. Beautiful satellite and radar presentation showing a storm that is in the wrapping up phase and developing into what looks like she will be a hurricane. Any other year I'd be sure but there has been a lack of hurricane formation so far... Irene I think is the real thing.

There has been a small slot of dry air on the north side but she seems to be dealing with it well. A high is setting up aloft and that should only add to organization and intensity, especially if she keeps pulling north of track and avoids the larger islands. IF she moves north of the islands and tracks through the really hot water between Florida and Hispaniola then she can and will become a dangerous storm. If she keeps tracking north of forecasted points the Carolinas will want to watch her carefully. If she sticks with the program and moves more west (vs reforming...saying that while rolling my eyes) then the Gulf needs to watch her.

The truth is it is simply too soon to tell exactly what she will do and how strong she will be. There are so many factors. Keep watching, stock up on anything you need and Monday might be a good day to make sure you have your medication refilled if there is anything you need to have handy... just in case. Best case scenario, she slides by Florida just off shore and catches a cold front out to sea but it's August and cold fronts can be fickle... we learned that in 1992 from Andrew which was just about this time of year so hope for the best, prepare for the worst and keep checking back to see what is going on with Irene.

Again if you live in the 5 day Cone below, now might be a good time to support economic growth and go shopping in basics that are on sale this weekend somewhere at a Walgreens or Walmart near you!

Now is the time to make a plan. Party when the storm misses you but if it hits, you'll be glad you had a Plan A and a Plan B. Plan C of course is watching her fall apart of miss your town, but it's very possible that this storm is going to make landfall along the hurricane coast.

Besos Bobbi
Ps it looks like an eye above but the aircraft did not find one... yet, keep watching.