If you live in or near a shaded area ....
...this post is for you!!
The forecast for the snow line is shown below:
The problem with Mid March Snow Storms AKA Blizzards is they are very hard to predict in perfect detail. They are in general an odd bird and models often over amplify and meteorologists try to stay conservative and look to history for analog storms to make or explain a forecast. Add to that models can flip flop fast and vacillate between 12 inches one run and 6 inches another run while meteorologists wait for the next run to see if the favored models come together in a way that seems consistent with history and current synoptics. It's not easy to have a Monster Storm show up on models in Mid March and try to convince a large population area they might really, really, really get a huge snow storm.
2017 has been on the mild side and many are skeptical that March will usher in winter on the edge of the Spring Equinox a mere week away. Again it's a week away for a reason and often latent energy unloads in Mother Nature's attempt to realign and center herself while taking back control of Planet Earth. An example would be Hurricane Joaquin or Hurricane Matthew that were both late season hurricanes that seemed to come out of nowhere.
And remember without the energy coming up from the GOM
We wouldn't have this whole Blizzard Mess...
The energy wrapped up in one low...
Merges with the other low...
Incredible meterological ballet.
And as always hard to predict where the snow line sets up.
Larry Cosgrove is one of my favorite mets and he takes a wide, historic, geographic view of weather often rather than just telling you what this model said vs that model. If you live in the area under the gun please check him out on Facebook and sign up for his newsletters. There are few like him; he's a treasure.
On a personal level let me explain it this way.
They are hard to predict and many variables.
So, shop for trouble in case you are snowed in...
And stuck unable to leave the house easily.
Better to stay safe than be sorry always.
I'm just pointing out:
if I lived in NJ, PA, DC, NY..
The mountains of WV and VA...
That general area I'd blink and prepare.
New England... you know the drill.
I don't need to hype this as it's hyped already.
www.weather.com is doing a great job of that...
Mike from www.spaghettimodels.com has an APP
You might want to check it out and download it.
Loads easy and may make your life easier ...
...especially if you are in the danger zone.
Stay warm, safe and enjoy the late achiever winter of 2017!
Follow me on Twitter @bobbistorm
Ps... In Raleigh we would have a huge snow storm on Sunday.
Then they back tracked to maybe snow on Sunday.
Then they took it out and penciled it in for Tuesday.
Then we had sunrise snow on Sunday.
Snowed for 4 hours.
Melted in less than an hour.
Sun came out and it looked a lot like Spring again.
My thought they took it out too fast.
Models are misleading this time of year.
Remember that ....
If on any of the last five days they said you would get snow..
..you most likely will get something.
The bushes looked like they were covered in snow...
Then it melted because it's March.
Today it's nasty cold - feels like 34 degrees in Raleigh.
They said maybe a drop of changeover to sleet.