Time to Start Watching the Tropics... But Models Are Doing a Two Step While Dreaming Tropical. That time of year... Hurricane Season 63 Days Away... Could Have Early Development. Possible... Next Storm B Name. Hmnn
Earlier in the week Rob from www.crownweather.com put out discussion.
Model discussion and some thought on tropical systems possibilities.
Yes I did say that as models are definitely in dreaming on tropics mode.
Seems the models are flip flopping.
Lots of various stylish solutions this time of year.
Again GFS changed it's mind.
Euro chimed it with it's own stylish solution.
The system moved faster than expected.
It landed in the Atlantic.
Atlanta didn't get rain but the Atlantic did.
Check the water vapor loops below:
System 1 moved through. System 2?
Let's look at the bigger picture....
What's going on in Bahamas and down to the SW and into Atlantic?
Let's look at our tropical orange juice loop (my not official name)
It has a more complicated name but shows us what might be developing.
The above two loops and many others at www.spaghettimodels.com
Why is this tropically topical?
There has been discussion of early quasi tropical development soon.
"GFS model guidance continues to be quite consistent in the forecast development of some type of sub-tropical system somewhere between Puerto Rico and Bermuda late next week into next weekend. "
Above is from www.crownweather.com
Welcome to that time of year that no one can figure out what the models are implying and they don't agree and spit out random options. It's a messy brain exercise like the one below. Makes your head hurt unless you are a great mathematician...which by the way meteorologists have to be to get a degree from a great program at a big University.
Did you understand that?
Neither can most figure out the models this time of year.
You may as well flip a coin.
I can't really tell you because the pattern is not set in stone yet.
It's winter, it's spring, it feels like summer.
Boots, Sketchers or Sandals?
Stay tuned for what happens in the real world next.
My advice... pay close attention to your phone weather app.
Make sure it's set for breaking news and warnings.
Local TV stations are best as location is everything.
Watch TWC.. The Weather Channel or ANY good Weather Channel.
Twitter ..fine your favorites for fast breaking updates.
Windy NYC Cranes Locked Down. Pollen Blowing in the Wind in the South. Is Mar-A-Lago Really Hurricane Proof?
That's steady wind at 30 MPH.
Peak Gust 51 MPH.
Down in Brooklyn....
Upstate New York... Crazy Wind on the Lakes
It's that time of year when it's neither here nor there... not winter, not really Spring even though we have sprung forward officially. It was 85 in Raleigh then it dipped back down to cold and damp. I wore leggings again on Saturday. I wore a yellow fluffy skirt so that the pollen wouldn't show too much. In Brooklyn my daughter's street has been evacuated as the high winds are taking down power lines and big trees. Cranes are locked down through the NYC.
When the wind blows these days NYC takes it really seriously.
Remember that wind art program I love so much?
Look how tight those lines are....
The system is blowing through....
A tree is going down near my daughters house.
They evacuated everyone on the block.
Imagine having the fire department come, knock on your door.
Inform you to get out NOW.
Not like a hurricane you plan for or even a Twister.
Seriously not the same damage.
But still weather brings trouble this time of year.
There are rumors that winter will have one more bang shortly.
Another cold system as winter hangs on into April.
Well to be fair winter did come late this year.
Stayed late as well.
The season that came for dinner and stayed...
In Raleigh the wind is making the white pear blossoms fall like snow.
White petals falling down, floating to earth.
Pollen Art abounds.
Pollen puddles after the rain.
Pollen surge drying in the sunshine.
We all have our problems.
Soon we will be thinking on the Hurricane Season.
Rumor has it the GFS keeps spitting out an early season storm.
Do we really believe the GFS?
Long shot but worth watching.
Crown Weather does a great job staying on top of things...
...while most of us sleep or dream.
And if you think long shots don't happen....
In 1947 a Hurricane hit Palm Beach.
That picture made me wonder on Mar-A- Lago.
My mind works like that.
All those great pics of Mar-A-Lago with reporters posed by the water.
They really built beautiful mansions in the Roaring 20s in Florida :)
A good quick primer on Turkey Point and it's possible problems.
Well they could be OUR possible problems.
Time will tell.
Remember please point #1 was "Do NOT Panic!"
Feel free to give the author your thoughts.
My direct concerns of course are hurricanes.
Granted it did okay-ish in 1992 when Andrew did a fly over.
There was some damage that was repaired and upgrades to the manuals. Not sure if most people are aware they were Turkey Point Nuclear Plant was without phone service, as was the FIRE PROTECTION service was out. Luckily there was one hand held radio device to communicate with the outside world and luckily they didn't need the fire protection service as the Category 5 Hurricane's winds knocked a high tower tank into the water tank holding the half a million gallon water tank to fight a fire out.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm