TS Kate Intensifying and Making the Turn North and Out to Sea...
Going to be a quick update on Kate. She is progressing as forecast and has made the turn to the North. There is a window of opportunity for her to become a hurricane. The NHC put it in their discussion I'm showing below. She is not expected to affect land. So far the forecast has been on the money and there is no reason to expect any surprises. The cold front is on it's way and she is catching it.
Her cone is out to sea...
Please check in with all the reliable sources for more information.
I'll update tomorrow sometime.
I'm actually catching a flight home to Miami.
My sister-in-law had a stroke and is need of prayers.
Being honest, you know me.
A good source for all your info on this so far very predictable storm.
Updated! Tropical Storm Kate. Forecast to Curve Away from Florida. Watch for Rip Tides. Is there another storm after Kate? Some say maybe
You can clearly see Kate's circulation here this afternoon.
Moving fast. I'll do a close up.
NW at 15 MPH
(seems faster to me...)
45 MPH Winds.
Nothing else new.
New picture shows it well.
The front is visible like one big red Twister.
Kate a solid white ball of tropical weather.
Looks awfully close to South Florida.
Moth attracted to the flame.
Use this link and click on the cities in the path... airports.
You can see what the weather is in Nassau...
I'll be back with a full, new update after the new discussion from the NHC.
Not expecting many changes, maybe intensity.
Things moved fast this morning with TD 12.
NHC upgraded her to Kate so fast the graphics packaged lagged behind.
Every one's talking about the new graphics, models with better resolutions but it's still rock and roll to me. All the talk on needing recon upgrade TD12 to Tropical Storm Kate seems silly considering its in the middle of the Bahamas with ship reports coming in from everywhere. It's being watched on slice and dice NRL and enough radar imagery to know it was a Tropical Storm. As a matter of face, before they made it a TD they were saying it had winds in excess of Tropical Storm status and yet we are officially waiting on recon.............
Come on... this was not that hard a call to make to have to wait for the A Team to come in on Monday morning and do the upgrade. I love recon, it's an awesome tool ... love those dropsondes and new radar imagery from the planes (what an idea) but really ...this was a done deal to be Kate late yesterday. Annoys me as I like truth in forecasting and discussion.
They were quite honest this morning that last night's main modeling package didn't see the small lunge west in track that brought it closer to Grand Bahama that was not seen by the main team of models ... most likely as it's a "small system" and we have been told endlessly this year small systems are not picked up well by the traditional big girl models.
Reminds me of the song.
Now let's dance to the loops.
If you remember I mentioned the fly in the ointment with the forecast..
..was the timing.
Kate is in a hurry to get somewhere fast.
Also over warmer water closer to the Gulf Stream she finds abundant heat.
Looks better on Dvorak too...
Well not much better.
But it's a definite...entity with a name.
Since I tend to be old school...even tho I'm complaining.
Let's look at the old school Unisys loop.
Note the approach of the front...
This is a shallow system, small and still not well organized.
One reason the traditional big gun models are not doing well with it.
To understand this well you may want to read up on models.
They are not all the same.
On www.spaghettimodels.com scroll down to the smaller links.
Good info there on models. Random stuff is always good :)
Models still show a healthy recurve may I add in here...
Even if Kate is rushing towards the approaching cold front.
My gosh her track is way off the track...keeps going to GB...
To quote an old friend from VA on AOL...
"Oh look it's a tropical storm!"
Well I do believe they said Hurricane but this IS a TS so...
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm