Meteorologists have pointed out the rain in Tampa is NOT Erika.
So true. In reality it's another stalled out trof over Tampa....
...with a little bit of Erika..
Let's call it stalled trof with infused tropical air making for an Artisanal Brew.
Speaking of brews..
Available in the airport in Tampa..if you are flying thru..
Try their brew ;)
My favorite of course....
...bet you knew that one ;)
It's been a crazy year in the tropics.
Busy Pacific...which we knew would happen.
Busy Atlantic which we were not expecting.
Around the tropics in general.
You can wave bye bye to Erika and her remains.
Also note she let some remains in the GOM
Waves in the Atlantic moving towards Islands kicking up.
GOM steamy too...
South of Hispaniola ... go figure ...
This is very clear here ...
So find your favoite loop and watch Fred do this thing...
..he will soon hit cooler waters and deal with other problems later in his life.
One of the things about weather that is amazing is how each year is different and yet on an overall grander level climatography wins out. But taken from one spot on Planet Earth an individual year can stand out for drought or record floods. Yes, it may average out over time. Someone wants to move to Charlotte, NC and they go online and Google "average weather temperature Charlotte" and get an average high of 70.8 degrees Fahrenheit. They think "wow, that's nice.." and the average low is "48.8F" sweet.
Averages don't tell the story.
It gets hot as blazes in the summer with little air movement.
Steamy, hot, sultry, Southern summers.
In the winter it can go way down below freezing.
Ice Storms, Hurricanes are possible though not probable.
It's foggier often than say Raleigh ..
It's not San Diego..let's put it this way.
A really beautiful city.
I heard Bryan Norcoss say on an average Miami...
.... has a hurricane every 2 years.
That's possibly true mathematically but...
you can go 10 or 20 years without a real hurricane.
Then a decade like the 1940s comes along and you have 2 a year.
An average doesn't really tell the story.
Do Analog years tell the story I wonder?
Earlier this year the Dream Team in Colorado put out a forecast.
CSU ... you know the one.
Gray and Klotzbach
They put up the following list for analog years.
How did they do?
Depends which variable you are choosing to look at...
Majors vs Minors?
Let's look at the one that showed long trackers.
All of these years had healthy Cape Verde Storms.
Carrie was a Tropical Storm just SE of the Cape Verde Islands.
Cruised by them to the South...
A long tracker I may add..
1987 featured 2 CV Storms that formed near Africa.
Before the Cape Verde Islands..
Not Hurricanes but still formation very far East.
Busy year everywhere.
E & A storm similar tracks
Again 1991 a TD in the CV Islands.
Danny formed far to the East also.
Dennis formed near the CV Islands.
Cindy was killed by the unsual suspect...
Edouard formed near the CV Islands
Bertha and TD2 formed far to the East.
Bertha survived Hispaniola but was a fish storm.
Arthur danced near Ana.
If you think this is normal to have so many long trackers...
...you are wrong.
Many years nothing forms East of say 50 West.
Tropical Waves wander west and flare up, get named, die out.
And many years its common to have at least 1 storm that forms out there.
But if you pick 5 random years ...
I'd say the one common denominator of these analog years is..
Early formation by or East of the Cape Verdes.
Long trackers even if they fizzle.
2015 so far...
I used Wikipedia to be different and...
though it didn't form over Africa we watched it over Africa.
Pouch study and all to be discussed on another blog
On a micro level...
Tampa and Charleston are in the news nonstop for flooding rain.
No direct landfalling hurricane but flooding rain.
Does rain need a name when it hits historic levels?
If your street is flooded and you can't leave the house...
That's memorable rain.
Oddly a little over 200 miles to the SE Miami is in a mild drought.
4.3 Hours drive according to sources online.
279 miles to the N Raleigh is in a mild drought,
4.6 hours drive according to the same sources online.
Probably not how long it takes your son-in-law to drive...
But I digress..
Even within a small area weather can vary.
One part of Raleigh gets snow..
..another gets rain.
One part of Palm Beach gets rain...
....another needs rain.
Weather is amazing.
Weather is hard to forecast.
Climo almost always wins on the average.
Looking back at 2015 we will remember Cape Verde systems.
One storm may form that becomes memorable like Katrina or Andrew.
Or one weak TS may wobble on shore Charleston or Tampa ...
...and make a bad situation worse.
A Cape Verde Hurricane hitting Cape Verde Islands.
So far Hispaniola is doing it's job.
If we get a storm that goes UP and OVER the islands...
...will see if the US gets lucky once again.
Prayers for those in the Caribbean recovering from Erika.
@bobbistorm on Twitter.
Note I'll update at the top with current breaking weather news..
TS FRED Headed to Cape Verde Islands with Hurricane Force Winds.. One for the books. Erika brings Rain ...
Link to Cape Verde Islands weather
Well that's unique. One for the record books. An intensifying Tropical Storm named Fred is forecast to hit the Cape Verde Islands with hurricane force winds. This year is so rich in Cape Verde Storms that they are battening down the hatches in Praia in the CV Islands to prepare for a land falling storm.
Healthiest wave in years...
In an El Nino Year.
Hopefully Fred will be a Fish.
A cold fish...
And if not his cousin SAL is ready for him..
Some great links at www.spaghettimodels.com on future tracks.
They truly are spaghetti models.
Models look like a bouquet of roses drooping.
Good discussion on www.crownweather.com
I'll be at www.canetalk.com as I usually am.
Here's Fred's track below from Crown.
Most probably at some point in history a hurricane has formed that far out... but we can't find record of it yet. And, we've been trying.
And so the hunt for another storm began...
It was like a Safari looking for a storm..
There have been storms back in time.
Some have very little data to support the tracks.
Ship logs are available.
Of course if a ship went down ..
...and is at the bottom of the ocean we don't have the ship's log.
But it happens rarely.
The 1893 Sea Island Hurricane that decimated Georgia started....
off Africa by the CV Islands.
Note that storm did the C V Islands as a Tropical Storm.
Check that link above often or your local weather source.
Erika's remains and her Troffy Boyfriend are doing the Cone.
Sort of like Bonnie and Clyde out for fun on a Sunday afternoon.
Just because Erika is kaput..
.....know the weather associated with her remnants is firing up
I want to discuss somethings here regarding Tropical Storm Erika. Check out the video at the bottom of today's blog as to possible discussion on Grace forming in the Atlantic. It's just talk, whispers in the wind, surfers looking for a good ride but it's a good read, great video of storms last night off the coast and a fun listen.
First and foremost Erika killed more than 20 people and according to some sources more than 30... people are still missing. Wait a day or two for the final total and say prayers for the families and loved ones of the people who died in this Tropical Storm. Read the discussion below from a website in the Caribbean.
So Miami may get heavy storms.
Some people in Miami may know someone who died in Dominica.
Give thanks the storm never made it past Hispaniola.
On that I'll quote my brother who follows the tropics from Greece.
The usual local speed bump being Hispaniola.
And, I'll add in what Brad Panovitch a forecaster in NC said..
I spoke a lot on the warm water of the FL Straits and Bahamas.
But you gotta have a closed center.. otherwise you have a tropical wave.
Yes the NHC has chances of it reforming on their main map...
Not likely. That trough across the state is strong.
Sucking up Erika's moisture too!
30% Yellow Circle over Erika's remains by NHC
Oh and to answer the question people are asking..
There was great discussion tonight on www.hurricanecity.com on their Tropical Update with Jim Williams and Bill Phillips. A great post storm wrap up of what went wrong with the models and Erika. The NHC goes back and writes up post storm discussion, we do too at Hurricane City.
Worth mentioning that Jim mentioned what I have thought on and that is that Erika could have been a Dress Rehearsal for a real hurricane later this season. And, as Bill Phillips mentioned more hurricanes hit Florida in October than any other time. Very true... in a few weeks... we could be dealing with a real contender. I hope the next threatening storm has better modeling than Erika did. The EURO really blew it with this storm and though it always stayed inside the 5 Day Cone... the EURO and others were bouncing all over the place with landfalls. Seems the only place sadly not mentioned was Dominica that wasn't really in the cone. But.. it got hit with the convection associated with but not wrapped around the center of Erika. Can we please retire this name now?
Check out Jim's site, he should have a link up soon. I called in and we spoke, not as much fun on the phone as in person but great weather friend to shoot the breeze with and discuss hurricanes. Enjoy the banter between Bill and him complaining about TWC coverage of Erika and how badly the models analyzed her and the problems the NHC had forecasting for a storm that would not bother reading her own model discussion.
Subscribe or just donate. Jim has a regular day job and very hard one that he does well out in the Florida sun most of the day. He may consider Hurricane City is hobby but it is what he is known for and it costs a lot to run it and keep it going. One of the best original Hurricane sites online. I was telling someone the other day when he first started the site he wanted it to be an educational tool for people to learn about hurricanes. That's why he has so many links to historic storms, information on the Hebert Box and pretty much anything relevant to Hurricanes. Mike's site is tropical but he also covers winter storms at www.spaghettimodels.com and Mike also has a day job, does other things while maintaining Spaghetti Models. There are other sites like www.flhurricane.com still around from the late 1990s their focus is on Florida Hurricanes (duh) and they are a wonderful asset and good friends. www.crownweather.com also goes back... we've been friends for a long time in retrospect.. following the weather online over time.
Some links you may have missed not on the main page.
Someone who does not have the time or money to go back to college and study tropical meteorology but wants to learn more can learn so much from just looking through some of the "products" on Hurricane City. http://www.hurricanecity.com/howbig.htm Plus the message board www.canetalk.com where I live during the Hurricane Season often. I'm on flhurricane.com under the name LoisCane... cause I was hiding there ;) long story but when the tropics come alive and threaten Florida follow the discussion with Mike, Ed and Clark on the message board.
Back to Erika and how badly the models handled her..
I'm sure in the off season many will review the model data that was a total disconnect with Erika and perhaps we'll have an answer one day. This isn't the first time the models have poorly handled a shallow, weak Tropical Storm with an IFFY center with it's center not aligned over it's convection. The debacle that was Hurricane Debby lives in our memories. Granted she was a stronger storm than Erika, but she was tilted and not well stacked. While discussion spoke of distant landfall in South Florida and the media Nationwide as well as locally ramped up on air live "Breaking News" Updates, Debby hit negative conditions...as well as Hispaniola ..and went poof.
Anyone who complains anyone mentioned that storm...
As it has happened before. It will happen again until we figure out why models have such a poor time dealing with systems like this one. Note they also had problems with Danny, as Danny was a shallow, small system. Models didn't even see Danny forming as he was so small
Hopefully when the BIG ONE comes the models will do a better job and people won't discount the discussion as "oh well Erika died, this one will too.. it's all hype"
I mentioned many times that Erika was TILTED and Levi Cowan went into great detail on his videos at www.tropicaltidbits.com but it's a hard concept to grasp... in the same way that the models had problems with Erika.
Speaking of the next system . . .
It's moving NW towards the Cape Verde Islands.
No I did not make that up.
The Cape Verde Islands may be hit by a Cape Verde Storm.
Happens, rarely ... but happens they upgrade this far out.
In this case he is making landfall...
Okay let's look at Fred in a loop.
Discussion is as follows.
1st Discussion from last night.
Next discussion from this morning on the upgrade.
Again I discuss possibilities here in the tropics.
Sometimes they develop, other times not.
99L became Tropical Storm Fred
Note I put the red arrows on Invest 99L Discussion.
Note the comment "small CDO"
4th Atlantic TS to form East of 19W Longitude.
Cape Verde Year...go figure.
Aren't you happy they are small and poorly formed.
And SAL is out there playing defense.
We will talk more on this storm down the line..
Feel free to check him out on http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
He has his own website there ;)
Lots of models there and other views of ... Fred...
For those people who still want to watch Erika Reruns..
You can see all the players here.
Note the chance for strong, severe weather.
Frontal boundary in the GOM is going RED tonight.
Moisture from what is left of Erika is streaming North towards it.
I wonder if the area South of Cuba would get it's own name...
Just a random thought in the wind...
Radar image from last night..WILD lightning storm formed
My son sent me video from FIU where he was working late.
Purple skies lit up by nonstop lightning
He said the drive home looked like inside a club with strobe lights...
I circled "ERIKA" in yellow.
There is a twist on the radar.
Note the Flood Watch for ALL of S FL thru Sunday Night.
CBS in Miami was showing the twist...
Trust me the trof has swallowed Erika...
Well for now.. stay tuned.
He might spit her out..
You never know..
The NHC does give this area a 30% chance of reforming.
In the next 5 days...so keep watching.
Would be a long shot but happens.
Note this rain event is going to be prolonged.
The trough isn't going anywhere...
...and neither is what's left of Erika..
Though I may add what's left of her caboose is South of Cuba.
Meandering around the Caribbean.. missing it's other half..
Interesting old wave flaring up and well...
.....we need to remember to watch for Close In systems.
Is the G storm forming?
Okay it's Grace not Gloria but... love Gloria..
Listen and wonder....great video of stormy beach ;)
As for storms so far away ...
..I'll be back to discuss "Fred" some more later.
@bobbistorm on Twitter...
thoughts in real time...
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm