A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Tuesday, June 30, 2015
Shark Attacks. Warm Water Close to Shore. Small spin off SE Coast. Models Aren't Biting..the Sharks are.....
ANOTHER SHARK ATTACK
7TH in 3 WEEKS
7 FOOT GRAY SHARK
Man in Late 60s
Explain why people think they are special?
Why they think a shark won't bite them?
This is a serious issue with July 4th Holiday Weekend here.
Will update the blog on the tropics and shark attacks later today!
Otherwise please continue reading it's all relevant.
Easy... Swim in the pool.
Walk on the beach.
Enjoy the beach but stay out of the water!
Weather update below.
Is the "Bahama Blob" as Mike calls it on Facebook a problem? No, not really.
Also worth watching flare up of convection in GOM near Mexico.
Is it worth watching? Sure, got nothing else to watch. Plus, it's a pattern. If the flip between extreme heat and summer time cold fronts continue something will form there again as Ana did back in May.
The water is warm close in to shore. When the water heats up the fish move around just like people do. It's that simple. "Oh my gosh Mollie, it's so hot pack up the car we are going to the beach!!" When water heats up off of the coast of South America the tuna take a hike, when water heats up close to shore along the US... the fish move with the water.
There have been way too many shark attacks off the coast of the Carolinas.
At this point I wish there was a small tropical storm to scare people away.
The local media here barely covers it anymore.
Luckily TWC is playing it up.
TWC - The Weather Channel
not TWC Time Warner Cable Local Weather/News
Vague details mentioned by the media...
One person said "not to swim near piers" . . .
You see the shark come for the fisherman's bait...
Yes, they may be coming for the bait.
But there aren't always so many shark in the sea in knee deep water.
A Google search shows it is a big problem.
Note National Media
3 shark attacks mentioned.
Let me highligh this like it's storm discussion
Nothing. Nada. Zip.
Discussion on a raccoon with rabies.
Note a fox recently attacked people in Raleigh with rabies..
A toll road article
Stars in the sky..
Nothing on shark attacks at the beach...
....going into the biggest beach holiday weekend of the summer.
Typical. Miami doesn't like to mention sharks either..
But it's a big problem.
You want to be shark smart? Stay out of the water!
I don't want to sound like Sam Kinison but . . .
"Stay out of the water!"
Swim in a pool.
Walk along the beach.
Sit on the beach
Build sandcastles on the sand.
(by the way if you get the commercial
about what's in some one's fridge...
...so so so true..)
But if some nice person tries to lure you into the water..
Tell them "NO!"
As a Miami girl I can truly say...
..that is what POOLS are made for ...
Stay out of the danger zone...
Miami Beach kids grow up and play in pools.
If they don't have one...
....they go over and sneak into one..
Let's do this with pictures...
(one of my all time favorite hotels...)
This is a no brainer................
Let's bring this back to weather...
Note the anomaly.
Hotter than normal.
And, add to this discussion on sharks. As long as we have cold fronts dropping down and stalling out in warm tropical waters we have the possibility of something developing. Right now the models are not biting, but the sharks are...so remember that when you decide to take a trip to the beach if you live in NC or SC this holiday weekend. Oh and use sunscreen....
Also, while having fun at the beach this weekend (unless you are up in the mountains some where) be careful of lightning. If the sharks don't get you, the thunder bolts might. Great new link up on www.spaghettimodels.com
Close up view off SE Coast
Oh and there's a reason they call them Tampa Bay Lightning..
Enjoy your holiday weekend.
Nothing tropical happening just yet.
About 10 days to 2 weeks would be a conservative guess.
As for me I'll be watching the loops off of the SE
3 things to note.
1. The ITZ is not shut down despite SAL present in the area.
2. Area off of the SE coast..
3. Area in the BOC
Ps.....with a strong high anything that develops goes inland.
The lead wave is firing up on the dirty side of said ULL.
Then...after SAL makes the sunsets pretty.
The next tropical wave moves in..
The models do not speak on tropical development.
The GFS "suggests" ... some instability.
Some tropical rain.
Note the Atlantic High looks like Carmen Miranda on over drive.
Nothing much is forecast to happen here.
Things can change.
But for now this is about the ULL moving west...
The tropical wave following the ULL
This ballet plays out every week in the tropics in June and July.
Key West Forecast Discussion
My concerns here in the tropics are that these waves keep coming. Tropical waves ride the same air flow patterns as the SAL that moves west coloring the sunset and creating breathing problems. A developed tropical system such as a hurricane is not caught up in the low trade winds. But, as long a you have waves this viable to make it from Africa to the Caribbean, you have to keep looking East wondering what else could happen later in the season. El Nino or not.... if the water gets hot, the MJO weighs in and there is a tropical wave with a low pressure system attached we could have a problem.
As for the derecho. It's not a tropical feature but its one heck of a weather maker.
Note the derecho is a stronger system than the much talked about remnants of Tropical Storm Bill.
The derecho is moving ESE and has already caused damage across many states with winds approaching 90 mph moving faster than a speeding bullet.
I'm wondering what July 4th will bring...
Meanwhile the Miami kids are in NC dealing with a heat wave ...
Cape Verde Waves. Watching Strong CV Waves Moving West ... While Bill Travels East.
What amazes me is that this Cape Verde Wave is even here ....in the Atlantic. Stage Right.
1. It's too early to be that far north where they need to be to develop.
2. There is a strong amount of SAL in the atmosphere.
3. The water is not that warm...
4. It's way too soon.
5. El Nino is on the clock...
And, yet there is an impressive signature with this wave. Will it develop? Have you seen any models saying it will? I ask because if there was model support every meteorologist worth their Twitter Handle would be all over it. Truth is everyone is watching it humorously thinking "what the heck is it doing there?" and then patting them self on the shoulder reminding them self.. "there is no model support" as they go back to their graphs of El Nino and place their bets if this will be a moderate or strong El Nino. Others refuse to stop watching Tropical Depression Bill as he sits and spins landlocked. There's also a Mesoscale that will cause possibly more damage than Bill, but every one's watching Bill to see if he makes it to "seafall" intact.
We are in my mind too model drive sometimes. We don't appreciate the beauty and wonder of the meteorological world, because we hear there is no model support and we turn it off like yesterday's news. In truth, I love the fact that models give us a heads up on tropical development but I'm saddened that many don't even watch the satellite loops anymore. Well, they do.. IF it has model support. If it's not being Tweeted about, it's not relevant.
What I find interesting is not what we talk about but what we don't talk about. What we ignore.
There are patterns in the tropics that are always worth watching in any given year.
I have quite a few meteorolgically impressive friends who worry about development this year despite all the negative media press that the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Note, they have been skeptical before the A storm formed and before the B storm formed. Before the A and B storm made landfall.
Sometimes life is not about quantity but quality. Sometimes the big one occurs in quiet years.
1921 Tampa Bay Hurricane. Referred to by NOAA has the "Forgotten Hurricane"
(I don't make this stuff up...)
For years newspapers have been writing about Tampa Bay's big one..
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm